The Thinking Man's Game: Stats, Metrics, and Modern Football Thought

[JonTheMag 4]

So, I realized there wasn't a dedicated thread for this thing -- Small Time Football Blather seems, well, too small time.

 

This is a place for us all to discuss football in an analytical and in-depth sense. This is more ZonalMarking and Inverting the Pyramid than the Daily Mail and Lee Ryder. This topic is obviously open to all areas of the game, but a focus on NUFC is always welcome. At least that's what I'll always try and add myself.

 

I'll get the ball rolling with this: http://www.optasportspro.com/en/about/optapro-blog/posts/2013/sustainable-possession.aspx

 

It's a quite interesting article that splits the possession metric into unsustainable and sustainable possession. Nothing really ground-breaking here, but it is a deeper look at possession than we're used to.

 

NUFC are well at the bottom end of the scale, with our sustainable possession being quite low. But as with all statistics, you can interpret them however you like. For example, note that Newcastle is above Atletico Madrid, and Wigan is above Real Madrid. Like I said, this article isn't exactly a game-changer.

 

Anyway, feel free to discuss this and post more articles. (HappyFace, this must be right up your alley. Or at least I hope so)

[Monroe Transfer 0]

Nerd.

[hostile_statue 0]

I'm currently reading this, it's quite interesting: http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/aw/d/0670922242/ref=redir_mdp_mobile/277-7183386-4488924

[scoobos 298]

Modern football as in Premiership?

 

Like the German coaches say - its kick and rush.

 

here endeth my tactical knowledge.

 

The games shite compared to 20 years ago - after a spell of being better 10 years ago.

[Tom 14013]

The premier league really isn't all kick and rush anymore tbh.

[The Fish 10965]

Modern football as in Premiership?

 

Like the German coaches say - its kick and rush.

 

here endeth my tactical knowledge.

 

The games shite compared to 20 years ago - after a spell of being better 10 years ago.

endeth? I don't think it beganeth

 

This "game is shite compared to jumpers for goal posts" is just nonsense.

 

I like nerding it up sometimes, but often I can't find a reliable resource from which to mine the data, anybody got any ideas where the raw facts and figures can be found (without spunking a shitload on a professional OPTA program)?

[scoobos 298]

Hmm I'm not sure, I used to watch match of the day religiously, all the other teams matches etc - but now its just a polluted playground for the worlds millionaires - we haven't seen a decent gelled team in years outside of the top 4.

 

I reckon its overhyped , the rules are taking the piss - I mean seriously we've eroded the game so much that tackling is as good as illegal now. Players pushing refs, clearly swearing on tv, our British superstar is a worse cheat than even the very worst Italian of the 90's (gareth bale etc).

 

It's kick and rush instant results bollocks, with GOALS GOALS GOALS decided by the FA years ago, as sky was asking for it.

 

Gawd, I'm happy this month ey?

[The Fish 10965]

Hmm I'm not sure, I used to watch match of the day religiously, all the other teams matches etc - but now its just a polluted playground for the worlds millionaires - we haven't seen a decent gelled team in years outside of the top 4.

 

I reckon its overhyped , the rules are taking the piss - I mean seriously we've eroded the game so much that tackling is as good as illegal now. Players pushing refs, clearly swearing on tv, our British superstar is a worse cheat than even the very worst Italian of the 90's (gareth bale etc).

 

It's kick and rush instant results bollocks, with GOALS GOALS GOALS decided by the FA years ago, as sky was asking for it.

 

Gawd, I'm happy this month ey?

Well I suppose it's what you take from the game. I love watching the Championship because there is genuinely 6 or 7 clubs who're in with a shout of winning the thing and the play-offs are often exciting.

 

The Premier League has some of the best players on the planet, playing at the top of their game. Yes, Bale dived quite a lot at the beginning of the season, he soon toned it down when he wasn't getting legit calls because of his reputation. van Persie has gone from a horrible scowling shit whose potential I didn't think he'd meet, to a happier player whose performances have been nothing short of fantastic. Last season was, on the whole, a damp squib for a lot of teams after the incredible scenes we saw 11/12. However I think the "Against Modern Football" lot are confusing things not being how they want them to be, with a rose-tinted view of how things were.

 

I remember the terrible football that so many teams used to play throughout the 80s and 90s (I was only born in 81), and I remember the crap tv coverage, and so on. You can still get thundering tackles, but because the understanding of the game has improved defenders shouldn't need to be making them. You still get the occasional loose ball in central midfield that's physically contested by two agricultural players, but if your centre half is going to ground to tackle their striker 5'll get you 10 that he's left a gaping hole that the opposition will take advantage of. The game is just played at a much faster pace these days.

 

Oh, and it's definitely not "kick and rush".

[JonTheMag 4]

endeth? I don't think it beganeth

 

This "game is shite compared to jumpers for goal posts" is just nonsense.

 

I like nerding it up sometimes, but often I can't find a reliable resource from which to mine the data, anybody got any ideas where the raw facts and figures can be found (without spunking a shitload on a professional OPTA program)?

 

Statto.com is decent for a broad overview, but your best bet is http://www.whoscored.com/Statistics. They get stats directly from Opta and it's the largest freely accessible database (I believe).

 

 

I get what you're all saying about the game changing in the last decade, and there's a lot of negatives to that. But I think what is changing for the better is that the public is becoming more aware of tactics and the importance of statistics in the game. Just look at how popular Zonal Marking has become. That type of analysis simply didn't exist for public consumption several years ago.

[scoobos 298]

I'd argue that Zonal marking has only become popular because players aren't allowed to tackle anymore. But that's just my jaded interpretation.

 

I'm a bit older, I'd say tv coverage in the 80s was BETTER than it was now - there were matches on every single saturday live and they all kicked off at nearly the same time.

 

Sky brought the selection of teams , but have fucked the game for real supporters by dictating some of the most incredulous timings that we now take for granted.

 

Travelling to London on a monday for a 8pm kick off is just plain stupid and in no ones interests but Sky.

 

But ho hum.

[JonTheMag 4]

I'd argue that Zonal marking has only become popular because players aren't allowed to tackle anymore. But that's just my jaded interpretation.

 

I'm a bit older, I'd say tv coverage in the 80s was BETTER than it was now - there were matches on every single saturday live and they all kicked off at nearly the same time.

 

Sky brought the selection of teams , but have fucked the game for real supporters by dictating some of the most incredulous timings that we now take for granted.

 

Travelling to London on a monday for a 8pm kick off is just plain stupid and in no ones interests but Sky.

 

But ho hum.

 

Haha I'm talking about zonalmarking.net, the tactics blog not the defensive strategy!

 

You have a great point about the way games are broadcast, but there's a difference in broadcast times and coverage. The scattering of games definitely isn't a positive for the average supporter, but the analysis offered is a vast step up (I presume) from 80's football with the use of slow motion, 10,000 camera angles, and that stupid fucking touchboard that Sky seems to love so much. What Gary Neville's been doing on Sky though is fantastic for the game. That said it's not an across the board increase in quality, you still have morons like Redknapp and Lawrenson spouting shite.

 

For someone who was alive and watched football in the 80s - what was the punditry like? Any better or worse than it is now? The same?

[scoobos 298]

I'm not sure as I was a teenager , but I think the punditry was a bit more impartial, calm and certainly not as sensationalist as it is now.

 

For example the "last man rule" - not many people know this, but it isnt a bloody valid rule - there's no rule saying if a last man tackles an attacker its a red card - the media invented it to add drama. E.G http://flawsofthegame.blogspot.co.uk/p/last-man-red-cards.html

 

That's what my resentment is really, the artificial drama that conditions kids to swallow it all and then pass it on. The game has gone to shit as far as behavior of players goes, for a reason.

 

There's loads of examples of this, I feel that the tackling from behind rule was a similar thing due to Italian media . We aren't far away from having a game where you seriously cannot tackle , I thought the game was better when people could go for 50/50 sliding tackles rather than the 90/10 they might dare at now.

 

All this pulling shirts etc is a new phenomenon brought by foreigners imo and I'd much rather see rules to stop that. The rulebook is the rulebook, so I really don't like this "It's the Premiership - its different" argument , no it isnt, its FIFA football the same as every other bloody country. You would never in a million years see the sort of crap that goes on here be tolerated in the US league (and they are crap!)

 

It is certainly nostaliga though - but Saint and Greavsie (sp?) did a cool tactics type show that will never be beaten as far as I'm concerned!

 

That said, I still love watching NUFC - but that's about it - oh and international football as a whole has got better I think (which is a better indication of if football has progressed, as you can't just buy anyone in) so that's a positive. Shame it hasn't for England, but I'm not surprised when we've sold our top league to a TV company.

Edited July 12, 2013 by scoobos

[Howmanheyman 33845]

Bringing 'co-commentators' into televised football definitely spoiled things.

[scoobos 298]

You said in 8 words what took me a paragraph. Do you do forum posting courses?

[The Fish 10965]

There are some quality commentators out there, Neville for one, but I agree there's too much "This will be the greatest game in the history of football until the next one!!"and there's a growing number of commentators who sound utterly bored of the whole thing and would rather be sipping a glass of merlot on a narrow boat in Norfolk.

 

There's just too much "Jobs for the boys" approach.

[JonTheMag 4]

Exactly. Emphasis seems more on bringing in known faces who have played the game than smart people who can articulate themselves eloquently. You get lucky from time to time with the likes of Neville -- Lee Dixon can be pretty good at times -- but more often than not they're of the Michael Owen/Jason Roberts variety.

[Howay 12496]

Thinking about how Robbie Savage and Garth Crooks are paid good wages to do what they do winds me up more than thinking about footballers exorbitant wage.

[Howmanheyman 33845]

You said in 8 words what took me a paragraph. Do you do forum posting courses?

It depends what my potential students are willing to pay!

[Happy Face 29]

 

With the increasing number of teams playing with formations that include a three man central midfield, whether it’d be 4-3-3, 4-5-1, 4-2-3-1 or even a false 9, it is near impossible to play the 4-4-2 formation, which served Newcastle well in the first part of the 2011/12 season. During that season, an in form Tiote and Cabaye built a formidable partnership and were able to control games against other teams who played two in central midfield, for example our away game versus Aston Villa. However, up against a three man central midfield, whenever Tiote and Cabaye were on the ball, they were either quickly closed down or their passing options would be closed down. Whenever they did not have possession, they would be chasing shadows being outnumbered and Newcastle would lose the impetus to control the game. Our opening game last season against Spurs was a perfect example. Newcastle started with 4-4-2, but Pardew changed it to a 4-3-3 at half time after a poor first half performance. The second half saw more possession for Newcastle and the tactic to change formation helped to win the game 2-1.

 

The recent sale of utility man James Perch and the impending departure of non-utility man, Dan Gosling, it leaves five central midfielders fighting for the three central midfield berths; Yohan Cabaye, Cheick Tiote, Moussa Sissoko, Gael Bigirimana and Vernon Anita. It could even be six, if you include Jonas Gutierrez, who has filled the defensive midfield position on a number of occasions. Using the EPL Index Stats Centre, we can see what strengths and weaknesses, each player brings.

 

 

In a recent interview, Sissoko stated that his preferred role was in defensive midfield, but looking at his ground and aerial 50-50s, his statistics look poor. Sissoko won 39% of his ground duels last season and despite his 6’2 frame, he only won 35% of his aerial duels. Perhaps, this is an unfair criticism being his first season in a more competitive league compared to Ligue 1 – only time will tell. Unsurprisingly, Cabaye and Anita also lose out on the majority of their aerial battles due to their lack of height. One popular criticism of Vernon Anita, is that with his slight frame, whether he can impose himself in a midfield battle – although arguably this hasn’t stopped Jack Wilshere being influential in the heart of Arsenal’s midfield.

 

19 year old Gael Bigirimana fairs well in this section – winning 4 out of every 5 tackles he makes and also performing well in ground and aerial 50-50s. An encouraging start to his career at Newcastle United. It was disappointing to see that he got very few minutes at the recent FIFA U-20 World Cup, even though he’s had more experience in the Premiership and the Europa League last season than the rest of his midfield squad members put together.

 

I think it’s a general consensus amongst Newcastle supporters that Tiote hasn’t been performing to the high standards that he set on his debut season, which brought rumours of Chelsea and Manchester United forming bids of excess of £20 million for the Ivorian. Despite being a stop-start season with disruptions due to international duty and injuries, some of his defending statistics look good – 75% tackling success and the most interceptions of the group, even though he’s played less minutes than Cabaye and Gutierrez. However, the four defensive errors last season epitomises his form last season. He can perform well one minute, but with a lapse of concentration in the next, the mistake could prove to be costly.

 

The possession table below emphasises the type of season that Tiote had. He won more possessions in the defensive and midfield third than Cabaye and Gutierrez, who played more minutes than Tiote; a minutes per possession won rate of 10 minutes and yet his dispossession rate is high in relation to the minutes played on the pitch. Vernon Anita, playing roughly the same amount of time as Tiote, was only dispossessed 16 times compared to Tiote’s 40. If Tiote can regain his confidence and concentration for the forthcoming season, an area that Pardew will have to address, it will help Newcastle in improving on their torrid performance last season.

 

 

 

Looking at the passing statistics, Bigirimana completion rates look very promising. He plays less of his passes forward, opting to choose to play it either side. Playing as a defensive midfielder, this could be viewed a positive by keeping it simple and keeping the ball ticking over. It also allows other more attacking players to do their business and lets the defensive midfielder to continue to keep the shape of the team and protect the defence – more renowned as the ‘Makelele role’ or the ‘water-carrier’ as Eric Cantona once called Didier Deschamps. But that’s not to say, Bigirimana isn’t able to pick out an attacking pass. His passing zone statistics show that he has a greater success rate of passes in the attacking zone (82%) and in the final third (78%) compared to the others.

 

Cabaye’s passing statistics look disappointing and below the standards that is expected of the French international. He has one of the lowest pass completion rates compared to his teammates (80%) and this decreases further when corner kicks and free kicks are taken into account. A 7% drop confirms Cabaye’s poor distribution that frustrated supporters have witnessed from free kicks and especially from corners. Again, his attacking (63%) and final third phase passes (60%) look poor, but this will be affected by the set-piece issues.

 

Similarly to the point made earlier, Sissoko’s passing rate in the defensive zone (87%) is the lowest from the group – another reason to discount him playing a defensive midfielder role next season? Further upfront, his statistics look better – only second best to Bigirimana with passes made in the final third (72%).

 

 

With this in mind and only two assists all season, is this a fault of the player, the lack of options to upfront to aim for or match tactics – or perhaps a bit of all three? One redeeming point is that Cabaye had created 9 clear cut chances last season, which could have brought more assists if all were finished.

 

On a side note, Gutierrez’s statistics are incredibly poor for a player who has played on the wing for the majority of the season. The much maligned pair, Stewart Downing and James Milner created more chances that Gutierrez has.

 

 

With six goals last season, five from open play and one penalty, Cabaye tops the list from the group. Evidently he has played twice as many minutes as January signing, Moussa Sissoko, but looking at analysis per minute, their statistics are quite similar. Where before Sissoko seemed lacking in defensive duties, he looks better offensively. Along with Cabaye, he has finished his two clear cut chances and has an overall similar chance conversion rate to Cabaye. On the other hand, Vernon Anita has missed both of his clear cut chances, but has scored for Newcastle when he a scored a sweet volley with the outside of his boot against Brugge in the Europa League. From a similar position, Bigirimana scored his first goal in a Newcastle shirt against Wigan.

 

Conclusion

Assuming that Pardew does opt to play with a three man central midfield, it would be nice to see a formation and more importantly, tactics that help the team as a whole. In a private meeting with fans last year, Pardew stated ‘if you control the midfield, you control the game’. With this in mind, why have been hoofing the ball from back to front? On average last season, Newcastle played the most long balls per game.

 

 

From looking at the statistics provided by the Stats Centre, Cheick Tiote is the best player at our disposal who can play the role of defensive midfielder. Even though he has had an indifferent season to his debut season, his defensive statistics still remain impressive and the best at Newcastle. Pardew has to find a way of knocking out the carelessness in Tiote’s play and making him concentrate on the simple things – breaking up play and pass the ball on. As shown above, by sticking to his role of defensive midfielder, he should be able to cover the runs of Debuchy and Santon on either side when they venture further up the wings – similar to the way Busquets will cover when Jordi Alba makes one of his trademark runs.

 

As well as providing cover for the defence, this also allows Cabaye to play further up the pitch, along with Sissoko. Many times last season, it looked as though Newcastle played a 4-2-3———1, with Cisse isolated and with the long ball being hoofed to Cisse, we lost possession and the opposition were back to attacking us.

 

Despite Sissoko claiming his preferred position is in defensive midfield, the statistics show otherwise. Defensively, he doesn’t look as sound as Tiote and his attacking statistics show he is better placed in a more attacking position. His pace and power can cause problems for any defence, as shown when he outran Ashley Cole, giving him a 15 yard head start in the process.

 

Although he has only played a fraction of the 2012-13 season, Bigiramana looks a very decent prospect at only 19 years old and from last season’s stats, he arguably looks a better proposition that Vernon Anita does at the moment. It will be good to see both players to get some more playing time this season.

 

As for Jonas, where does he fit in? He’s not attack minded enough to play left wing – his most effective games came at the start of the 11-12 season where he and Ryan Taylor formed a good partnership and Gutierrez helped Taylor a lot with defensive duties. I don’t believe he should be playing in centre midfield, as we should be giving more playing time to Bigirimana and Anita, who are just as capable, if not better. It looks like his playing days should be coming to an end, but with him being one of Pardew’s favourites, it’s hard for it to see.

 

With either two from Gouffran, a fit Marveaux and Ben Arfa on each flank and every one on top of their game, Newcastle have a formidable midfield. But all too often last season, injuries, lack of form and international duty all hampered our midfielders at some point. It makes no sense for Pardew to play long balls up to an isolated Cisse in the hope that we can retain the ball and control the game. Frankly, he’s not got the ability to hold up the ball. With the players in Newcastle’s disposal, we should be playing some decent, flowing football through our midfield – which allows our midfielders to support the lone striker too. Hopefully last season’s near relegation miss was a wake up call for Alan Pardew.

 

 

http://www.eplindex.com/35034/central-midfield-combination-newcastle-united.html

 

[JonTheMag 4]

Good article - makes some interesting points especially about Bigirimana's value. Will be interesting to see if Bigirimana can keep up these positive stats with a longer run in the side.

 

I have an issue with one of his claims though, which is this:

In a recent interview, Sissoko stated that his preferred role was in defensive midfield, but looking at his ground and aerial 50-50s, his statistics look poor. Sissoko won 39% of his ground duels last season and despite his 6’2 frame, he only won 35% of his aerial duels.

 

I think those starts are largely due to the role Sissoko was asked to play rather than his ability as a player. Duels include take-ons and being taken on, so given the amount of times Sissoko was asked to hoof it past a player and try and run into the channel, his duel stats aren't going to look great. Same with aerial duels. He'll have been making those challenges against tall defenders -- not diminutive midfielders and forwards. Those stats reflect his attacking capabilities rather than his defensive prowess, so if anything they provide an argument for Sissoko playing as a defensive midfielder.