Europe --- In or Out

[Dr Gloom 21912]

I'm starting to suspect we might see some kind of Brexit lite - or quite possibly even a second referendum. Interesting to hear Sapin breaking ranks and not ruling out concessions on immigration. "Everything is on the table", I think he said.

 

The vote was mainly won on immigration. If an emergency brake was secured in new negotiations, a second referendum could be won quite easily - you're only talking about a two per cent swing.

[Dr Gloom 21912]

There's a precident for second referendums on EU matters from Ireland and Denmark as well. Obviously on not as big an issue as exit from the union but it isn't uncharted waters.

[Happy Face 29]

He was the party leader at the time. Her position in the future would be to unite both sides of the Tory party. It's a silly comparison.

It's bollocks spouted to justify goals completely unrelated to Brexit. Which is why the membership would vote Corbyn in again.

[Happy Face 29]

https://youtu.be/-a6HNXtdvVQ

[Rayvin 5217]

What would we do about the ire of the working classes in that scenario though?

[Dr Gloom 21912]

He was the party leader at the time. Her position in the future would be to unite both sides of the Tory party. It's a silly comparison.

This.

 

As far as the Labour leadership is concerns, Dan Jarvis is the guy the Tories are most scared of. Widower, war hero. The fact he's a blairite means he'll struggle to unite such a divided party. You need someone between him and Corbyn. Someone young and charismatic, who can speak to all factions. Fuck knows who that is.

[Meenzer 15518]

"It may seem a minor matter in the wake of this referendum to say that our political parties are failing in their historic mission, but we would not have arrived here were they not doing so."

 

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/30/brexit-disaster-decades-in-the-making?CMP=share_btn_tw

[ewerk 30569]

Gove is standing now.

[Renton 21588]

"What the Brexit debacle should teach us is that referendums are more often than not populist tools that allow demagogues to use the politics of resentment in a democratic way. Sure, referendums are democratic. But, they can also be deadly."

 

http://www.historymatters.group.shef.ac.uk/brexit-lesson-yugoslavia/

 

What a sobering article. Whilst I don't expect a civil war, I do fear for the stability of the union and the resentment that is being unleashed. This has been the shittest of decades so far, and it keeps getting shitter.

[ewerk 30569]

It's bollocks spouted to justify goals completely unrelated to Brexit. Which is why the membership would vote Corbyn in again.

I agree that it isn't necessarily about Brexit, more about Corbyn's complete inability to lead a united PLP.

[Dr Gloom 21912]

What would we do about the ire of the working classes in that scenario though?

I presume that's addressed to me.

 

I think an emergency brake on immigration would go a long way to winning them over,

 

You'd still get some nutters who would argue it isn't enough but some kind of immigration control is the key issue with a lot of voters. That combined with widespread buyers remorse, now we're seeing a lot of project fear's warnings weren't overblown, would be enough to produce a convincing remain result, if a second referendum is called.

[Happy Face 29]

Gove is standing now.

I expect he and Johnson have agreed to stand for appearances sake, in the hope of splitting each others (and Fox's) vote and making it a clearer path for May.

[Renton 21588]

It's bollocks spouted to justify goals completely unrelated to Brexit. Which is why the membership would vote Corbyn in again.

Utter horse shit. Corbyn was a disgrace in the run up to the referendum, he has bought this on himself.

[Happy Face 29]

Utter horse shit. Corbyn was a disgrace in the run up to the referendum, he has bought this on himself.

 

You were most vocal on what a short stint he would have, long before Brexit campaigning even got started and became a hook to hang that hat on.

[Renton 21588]

I presume that's addressed to me.

 

I think an emergency brake on immigration would go a long way to winning them over,

 

You'd still get some nutters who would argue it isn't enough but some kind of immigration control is the key issue with a lot of voters. That combined with widespread buyers remorse, now we're seeing a lot of project fear's warnings weren't overblown, would be enough to produce a convincing remain result, if a second referendum is called.

I think there needs to be real debate over the issue of free movement between rich and poor countries by the EU, not just for the UK, but all countries. This kind of net migration really isn't sustainable over the long term and is, rightly or wrongly, stirring up huge tensions. If the EU could at least recognise this it would go a long way to defusing the issue. Might be too late for us though. Edited June 30, 2016 by Renton

[Renton 21588]

 

You were most vocal on what a short stint he would have, long before Brexit campaigning even got started and became a hook to hang that hat on.

I was right in other words.

 

HF, he is a Brexiter pretending to support Remain, completely untenable.

[ewerk 30569]

 

You were most vocal on what a short stint he would have, long before Brexit campaigning even got started and became a hook to hang that hat on.

 

Yeah, fuck you Renton and your foresight.

[Happy Face 29]

I expect he and Johnson have agreed to stand for appearances sake, in the hope of splitting each others (and Fox's) vote and making it a clearer path for May.

Actually, no, he's just a cock isn't he. Comes down to the last 2 and no vote splitting doesn't it.

[Happy Face 29]

I was right in other words.

 

HF, he is a Brexiter pretending to support Remain, completely untenable.

Of course you were. It was a self fulfilling prophecy that a labor party working to unseat their leader would unseat their leader.

[Dr Gloom 21912]

I think there needs to be real debate over the issue of free movement between rich and poor countries by the EU, not just for the UK, but all countries. This kind of net migration really isn't sustainable over the long term and is, rightly or wrongly, stirring up huge tensions. If the EU could at least recognise this it would go a long way to defusing the issue. Might be too late for us though.

Absolutely - any agreement on an emergency brake would have to apply to all countries across the EU.

[Alex 35063]

Just on passporting as mentioned by Renton, if the fuckwits who negotiate don't get that then I'm afraid the UK will be fucked completely. I know I'm an insider quisling on this but the cost of lost jobs and tax receipts from the city would be monumentally damaging.

Plus, I'm guessing it's an enormous opportunity for the rest of the EU to take those jobs and help their own economies.

[Renton 21588]

Of course you were. It was a self fulfilling prophecy that a labor party working to unseat their leader would unseat their leader.

I'm not a labour MP and in fact no longer an activist, member, or possibly voter. It was a prediction that was proved right, hardly self fulfilled. I am still pretty livid about the damage this man has done and is still doing to my former party btw.

[Alex 35063]

I'm not a labour MP and in fact no longer an activist, member, or possibly voter. It was a prediction that was proved right, hardly self fulfilled. I am still pretty livid about the damage this man has done and is still doing to my former party btw.

There's some parallels with the Tory's Brexit campaign in that most of the MPs who nominated Corbyn didn't want him to win, they just wanted to provide a sop to the unions and the left wing of the party.

[Park Life 71]

Frogs play nice.

 

[Dr Gloom 21912]

extraordinary comments from gove this morning. from any sparrow's live politics blog:

 

Last week Michael Gove’s Vote Leave campaign ended the career of David Cameron - a man that Gove has counted as a close friend for more than a decade.

Today the Gove career-destroying machine has turned on Boris Johnson, who until about half an hour ago was the favourite to win the Conservative leadership. Gove, who is respected by colleagues, Tory members and the media, has just published a damning character reference about the man with whom he jointly ran the victorious Vote Leave campaign. Here it is again:

 

 

 

I respect and admire all the candidates running for the leadership. In particular, I wanted to help build a team behindBoris Johnson so that a politician who argued for leaving the European Union could lead us to a better future.

But I have come, reluctantly, to the conclusion that Boris cannot provide the leadership or build the team for the task ahead.

 

Gove does not explain why he has come to this conclusion, but presumably we will learn more later today, or in the days ahead. Gove was never particularly close to Johnson and it was reported that at a dinner with Rupert Murdoch two years ago he told the media tycoon Johnson was not fit to be prime minister. “A ‘tipsy’ Michael Gove has launched an extraordinary wine-fuelled attack on Boris Johnson, saying he ‘has no gravitas and is unfit to lead the nation’,” is how the Mail on Sunday reported it. But Gove and Johnson appeared to get on during the EU referendum camaign and afterwards Gove’s supporter briefed journalists that Gove had developed new respect for Johnson. This is what the well-informed James Forsyth wrote at the weekend in the Sun.

 

 

 

But I understand that Gove is not planning to put himself forward.

One influential figure in the Leave campaign says: “Michael has acquired a new respect for Boris in this process.”

Those on the Vote Leave team have bonded during this campaign: “They have become a band of brothers and sisters. There is a logic to them taking on the challenge they have created,” I am told.

Edited June 30, 2016 by Dr Gloom