Europe --- In or Out

[Renton 21980]

53 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

 

On the decade component sure, it took us 5 years to leave and I can't see any quick way of reversing that.

 

What I disagree with is the idea that the EU wouldn't want us back. The Ukraine war and the fact that they've asked us to be part of a joint security committee underscores how important the UK was as a leader in security and defence, something they do not have a ready replacement for. On top of that I still feel that a taking back in member that left is a bigger win than having one on the outside. We won't suffer forever from Brexit, eventually the country will get its act together and start growing again - the longer that goes on, the bigger threat we become to the European project. Far better to have us back inside. Important note here, I'm not saying we wouldn't grow faster inside the EU - we obviously would - but the economy will eventually pivot to whatever will work for a post EU version of the UK. It'll be shit for workers but we will find a way to attract business.

 

But the more we diverge from the EU (reduced worker rights, environmental standards, any trade deal we have with the USA or China, genetically modifed crops etc), the harder it will be for us to reintegrate. It takes just one country to veto our entry and that's that. My feeling from other forums which have European contributors is that probably the majority of people are happy we have left and do not want us back as long as there is any chance we'd do this shit again. And can we ever guarantee that? Only with electoral reform I'd think. The ERG are like a cancer, you might think you are in remission but unless you eradicate every single one of them, they will grow back. 

For these reasons I've always been an advocate of joining the SM. But I increasingly just don't think we can ever accept being a rule taker. The UK is too large and proud for that. 

[ewerk 31195]

31 minutes ago, Renton said:

My feeling from other forums which have European contributors is that probably the majority of people are happy we have left and do not want us back as long as there is any chance we'd do this shit again. And can we ever guarantee that? Only with electoral reform I'd think.

 

At the same time a PR electoral system opens the door to the likes of UKIP and Reform getting seats in parliament. If the price of their support was taking us out of Europe again then it's a price the Tories could well pay.

[Rayvin 5294]

59 minutes ago, Toonpack said:

 

Whilst countries economies will always bottom out and grow again I think the notion that the UK could grow to such an extent to threaten the EU is mad tbh and France's military is also now bigger than ours.

 

Threaten in the sense of other countries observing that it is possible to be functional outside of the EU, not directly threatening their economic clout. So what I'm effectively saying is that if we are able to appear as a semi successful nation again outside of the EU, then we cease to be something they can point to as a 'danger of leaving' and start becoming something that the right wingers throughout Europe can hold up as a success story. This is what I mean by threat.

 

As for the French military, size isn't everything. The EU was very reliant on the UK for leadership on this side of things and the French don't seem hugely willing to step into that gap. There was a reason Putin took us out of Europe instead of France.

[Rayvin 5294]

46 minutes ago, Renton said:

 

But the more we diverge from the EU (reduced worker rights, environmental standards, any trade deal we have with the USA or China, genetically modifed crops etc), the harder it will be for us to reintegrate. It takes just one country to veto our entry and that's that. My feeling from other forums which have European contributors is that probably the majority of people are happy we have left and do not want us back as long as there is any chance we'd do this shit again. And can we ever guarantee that? Only with electoral reform I'd think. The ERG are like a cancer, you might think you are in remission but unless you eradicate every single one of them, they will grow back. 

For these reasons I've always been an advocate of joining the SM. But I increasingly just don't think we can ever accept being a rule taker. The UK is too large and proud for that. 

 

The UK isn't going to exist all that much longer though, not in current form. I mean ok, let's take your scenario through to conclusion - the basic premise is we're too proud and stupid to do anything about this no matter how bad it gets, and we continue on into ever more assured oblivion with no one at any point doing anything about it. That's bleaker than anything I've ever put down on this forum. That's bleaker than the idea that the Tories could win the next GE ffs.

 

Ideally we'd join a more federalised version of Europe so that we can become part of a United States style entity which locks us in for good, but the EU itself isn't there yet. I guess the thing I struggle with is who within the UK won't be wanting us to return once the children of the empire generation have died off? Is it really going to be that hard a sell? Why would anyone in this country want to live in the hell of post-Brexit UK once the elderly aren't chaining us to it anymore? You've posted yourself how much opinion polls are swinging on this now. We've also seen how unlikely we are to get a US trade deal, and given our stance on China, increasingly there too.

 

The wheels have come off Brexit already, it's being shown up for what it is. The path has to lead somewhere and we have literally no other option - at least for now - than walking back to the EU. And the longer this goes on, the faster the pace of that process becomes IMO. Irrespective of what Starmer warbles on about to his friends in the tabloids.

 

EDIT - with respect of the EU, I think we will eventually be able to demonstrate enough enthusiasm for them to agree. I don't see how significant amounts of anti-EU sentiment are generated now that we've walked off the cliff.

[The Fish 10963]

22 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

 

I don't see how significant amounts of anti-EU sentiment are generated now that we've walked off the cliff.

Daily Mail and social media?

[Rayvin 5294]

4 minutes ago, The Fish said:

Daily Mail and social media?

 

It's a harder sell for me - several generations who will have experienced life inside and outside of the EU, who were broadly pro-EU before leaving that they have to convince. They had it easy with Brexit because they were selling bullshit which stuck because of the fact that much of what the new reality would look like was 'unknown'. Now it's known on both sides, I struggle to imagine where they get the same leverage from for their argument.

[The Fish 10963]

EU pass laws to make it harder to rejoin OUT OF SPITE

EU punish ex-pats with unfair taxations

EU let illegal immigrants pass through to OUR SHORES

 

et fucking cetera

[Rayvin 5294]

19 minutes ago, The Fish said:

EU pass laws to make it harder to rejoin OUT OF SPITE

EU punish ex-pats with unfair taxations

EU let illegal immigrants pass through to OUR SHORES

 

et fucking cetera

 

Right but that's not quite what we had pre-Brexit is it? And as I've also said, even if it was exactly the same levels, the demographics are changing and it's an increasingly harder sell. There's a reason the Telegraph has come out and said Brexit is a shambles - because it needs to tally to the reality its audience is seeing or it becomes irrelevant. Reality eventually conquers everything. I know this is true because it's the same reasoning I'm being given on here about why the Tories won't win the next GE.

[The Fish 10963]

12 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

 

Right but that's not quite what we had pre-Brexit is it? And as I've also said, even if it was exactly the same levels, the demographics are changing and it's an increasingly harder sell. There's a reason the Telegraph has come out and said Brexit is a shambles - because it needs to tally to the reality its audience is seeing or it becomes irrelevant. Reality eventually conquers everything. I know this is true because it's the same reasoning I'm being given on here about why the Tories won't win the next GE.

I just don't have faith in sense and I have depressing faith in the reactionary rightwing to blame foreigners for the troubles here. 

[spongebob toonpants 4131]

I think the country is in terminal decline, and I can see things getting very very bleak. I can't see any way out of it at the moment

[Renton 21980]

1 hour ago, Rayvin said:

 

The UK isn't going to exist all that much longer though, not in current form. I mean ok, let's take your scenario through to conclusion - the basic premise is we're too proud and stupid to do anything about this no matter how bad it gets, and we continue on into ever more assured oblivion with no one at any point doing anything about it. That's bleaker than anything I've ever put down on this forum. That's bleaker than the idea that the Tories could win the next GE ffs.

 

Ideally we'd join a more federalised version of Europe so that we can become part of a United States style entity which locks us in for good, but the EU itself isn't there yet. I guess the thing I struggle with is who within the UK won't be wanting us to return once the children of the empire generation have died off? Is it really going to be that hard a sell? Why would anyone in this country want to live in the hell of post-Brexit UK once the elderly aren't chaining us to it anymore? You've posted yourself how much opinion polls are swinging on this now. We've also seen how unlikely we are to get a US trade deal, and given our stance on China, increasingly there too.

 

The wheels have come off Brexit already, it's being shown up for what it is. The path has to lead somewhere and we have literally no other option - at least for now - than walking back to the EU. And the longer this goes on, the faster the pace of that process becomes IMO. Irrespective of what Starmer warbles on about to his friends in the tabloids.

 

EDIT - with respect of the EU, I think we will eventually be able to demonstrate enough enthusiasm for them to agree. I don't see how significant amounts of anti-EU sentiment are generated now that we've walked off the cliff.

 

I'm really struggling to reconcile this post with the one above, where you state:

 

Quote

Threaten in the sense of other countries observing that it is possible to be functional outside of the EU, not directly threatening their economic clout. So what I'm effectively saying is that if we are able to appear as a semi successful nation again outside of the EU, then we cease to be something they can point to as a 'danger of leaving' and start becoming something that the right wingers throughout Europe can hold up as a success story. This is what I mean by threat.

 

If we have any success outside the EU, it will be because we have done things differently, "supply side reform" as the cunts like to call it. That means lower levels of worker's rights, pay, environment, and all the other shit you might associate with the USA for instance (except the lower pay bit, that will be reserved for us only). 

 

Let's say you make a widget which complies with EU specifications on functionality and safety. That is not enough to be part of the SM. It also has to be produced in a way that is compatible with the EU so the EU is not undercut in the cost of production. That is, the afore mentioned workers' rights, environment etc. Now we are already diverging from the EU on these points and honestly I can't see the direction of travel changing, even under Labour from what Starmer has said recently. The cunts have won. To rejoin even the SM now would mean realigning our entire economy to EU values, something other countries in line with ascension have real difficulties with (countries like Turkey, Ukraine). I'm not being pessimistic here, this is just cold hard logic. The longer we are out of the EU, the harder it will be for us, and in truth, it may already be too late. Scotland will probably be your best option. 

Edited November 29, 2022 by Renton

[Renton 21980]

1 hour ago, ewerk said:

 

At the same time a PR electoral system opens the door to the likes of UKIP and Reform getting seats in parliament. If the price of their support was taking us out of Europe again then it's a price the Tories could well pay.

 

PR lets these people be represented democratically and proportionately. It stops the perverse situation whereby they have managed to take over an entire principal party and are thus massively over represented. PR would neutralise the nutters, unless we truly are a nation of nutters, in which case fair enough. 

[Renton 21980]

6 minutes ago, spongebob toonpants said:

I think the country is in terminal decline, and I can see things getting very very bleak. I can't see any way out of it at the moment

 

I don't want to like this, I don't want to agree, but when I look at every metric concerning the UK it's really hard not to agree. 

[ewerk 31195]

4 minutes ago, Renton said:

 

PR lets these people be represented democratically and proportionately. It stops the perverse situation whereby they have managed to take over an entire principal party and are thus massively over represented. PR would neutralise the nutters, unless we truly are a nation of nutters, in which case fair enough. 

 

You don't see the problem with a small group of nutters holding the balance of power?

 

FPTP guarantees strong and stable government.

[Rayvin 5294]

Would the Swiss style arrangement discussed recently not keep us fairly aligned? If that's already in conversation now, I think it's a bit too soon to write off the whole thing.

[Rayvin 5294]

2 minutes ago, ewerk said:

 

You don't see the problem with a small group of nutters holding the balance of power?

 

FPTP guarantees strong and stable government.

 

This is a joke right?

[Renton 21980]

Just now, ewerk said:

 

You don't see the problem with a small group of nutters holding the balance of power?

 

FPTP guarantees strong and stable government.

 

Did you miss out the wink in your second sentence?

 

There are many forms of PR, most of which seem to work in Europe (but not all). The ERG have directed our policy since 2010 and at best represent 20% of voters imo. 

[spongebob toonpants 4131]

1 minute ago, Renton said:

 

I don't want to like this, I don't want to agree, but when I look at every metric concerning the UK it's really hard not to agree. 

I've had to disengage to some degree, for the sake of my mental health. Trying to deal with my MIL's dementia and the care system is brutal. I'm well paid but the "cost of living crisis" has me wondering where I'll be next year. Fuck knows how people even on the average wage are coping.

And it's just going to get worse

[Renton 21980]

Just now, Rayvin said:

Would the Swiss style arrangement discussed recently not keep us fairly aligned? If that's already in conversation now, I think it's a bit too soon to write off the whole thing.

 

So the Swiss thing is a red herring imo. It's not a single agreement as such, just a series of bilateral deals which everybody hates, especially the EU who ruled it out as an option for the UK on day one. Switzerland has to de facto accept FoM for it to work, yet depite the fact they are in Schenghen there is still substantial friction to goods trades at all of Switzerland's borders. If there is any truth at all in us wanting a Swiss deal I will bet you it will just be the tories talking amonst themselves without any input from the EU, as usual. It's not ever happening. 

[Renton 21980]

1 minute ago, spongebob toonpants said:

I've had to disengage to some degree, for the sake of my mental health. Trying to deal with my MIL's dementia and the care system is brutal. I'm well paid but the "cost of living crisis" has me wondering where I'll be next year. Fuck knows how people even on the average wage are coping.

And it's just going to get worse

 

That could just have well as been me writing that post unfortunately. 

[Rayvin 5294]

Ultimately with a new generation of politicians, anything is possible. The only thing we need to achieve right now is making it very visible and unavoidable that Brexit was and is a catastrophe. I feel like we're starting to do that.

 

On that basis, I am more optimistic than I was when everyone in the establishment was going around pretending it was all sunshine and rainbows. I know Starmer hasn't caught up on that yet, but if the Tories are at least talking about a Swiss deal, herring or not, then there's been a shift in the perception of reality.

 

If things get so bad that the right wing press can't win the next GE for the Tories, then I don't know why we'd think they would be able to thwart an EU bid when we've lived a few years of this hell.

 

[Renton 21980]

3 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

Ultimately with a new generation of politicians, anything is possible. The only thing we need to achieve right now is making it very visible and unavoidable that Brexit was and is a catastrophe. I feel like we're starting to do that.

 

On that basis, I am more optimistic than I was when everyone in the establishment was going around pretending it was all sunshine and rainbows. I know Starmer hasn't caught up on that yet, but if the Tories are at least talking about a Swiss deal, herring or not, then there's been a shift in the perception of reality.

 

If things get so bad that the right wing press can't win the next GE for the Tories, then I don't know why we'd think they would be able to thwart an EU bid when we've lived a few years of this hell.

 

 

I'm genuinely glad you're optimistic. I do think you are sort of ignoring the EU side of things a bit, but fair enough. The other thing though is the boiling frog problem. Everything is getting worse but at such a pace it's become normalised. Empty supermarket shelves? Sadly, the tories have been very good at deflecting the issues and blaming them on the pandemic and the Ukraine. Meanwhile as we speak they are literally performing a scorched Earth operation on EU statute. Still 2 years left of it. 

[Rayvin 5294]

5 minutes ago, Renton said:

 

I'm genuinely glad you're optimistic. I do think you are sort of ignoring the EU side of things a bit, but fair enough. The other thing though is the boiling frog problem. Everything is getting worse but at such a pace it's become normalised. Empty supermarket shelves? Sadly, the tories have been very good at deflecting the issues and blaming them on the pandemic and the Ukraine. Meanwhile as we speak they are literally performing a scorched Earth operation on EU statute. Still 2 years left of it. 

 

I agree on the boiling frog, that's the main concern with my view - if it takes too long people simply forget. But perhaps if Europe really kicks on and the difference becomes stark across the channel, it becomes easier to keep the 'what if' relevant.

 

I'm ignoring the EU side because I agree with your suggested EU conditions for us returning. Super majority and a closing of this issue in any and all perceptible senses. So what I'm saying is more about my hopes for us to reach that point, not that the EU will stoop for our benefit.

[Gemmill 46016]

2 hours ago, spongebob toonpants said:

I think the country is in terminal decline, and I can see things getting very very bleak. I can't see any way out of it at the moment

 

Only Renton could "like" a post like this.

 

[Renton 21980]

1 hour ago, Gemmill said:

 

Only Renton could "like" a post like this.

 

 

Hey man, I even explained my reasons for "liking" it, you bell whiff.