Jump to content

Europe --- In or Out


Christmas Tree
 Share

Europe?  

92 members have voted

You do not have permission to vote in this poll, or see the poll results. Please sign in or register to vote in this poll.

Recommended Posts

It really sounds like any vote on Johnson's deal will be exceedingly close. I don't think he'll be toppled now. The ERG will back him and the Labour rebels may also. If they do it'll be unforgiveable but you never know.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just like May's deal it could get through if a referendum was attached to Parliament approving it. Just like then, too many MPs are selfish cunts 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Rayvin said:

It really sounds like any vote on Johnson's deal will be exceedingly close. I don't think he'll be toppled now. The ERG will back him and the Labour rebels may also. If they do it'll be unforgiveable but you never know.

 

He's not gonna get a deal to bring back to Parliament. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I dunno man, I have a bad feeling about this. Maybe he's playing exactly the same game that May was but with far more effectiveness. Scare his own party and parliament into thinking that No Deal is possible, even when it has been legislated against, scare the EU into thinking it, and somehow come out with some manner of deal that's basically hard Brexit.

 

In fact the more I think about it, the more realistic it sounds. I think he's serious about this deal, and I think it's been the game plan all along. Financial speculators betting against the pound, Cummings, "dead in a ditch", it's all a red herring to make it seem like he was hell bent on No Deal when in fact he just wanted a more ably handled shot at May's gambit. And it's not really even for the EU's benefit, save for the small amount of additional concessions he needed to be able to re-package May's deal. The threat of No Deal has always been about terrifying Parliament - and this time it's working. Those 19 Labour rebels man, they're the ones who will deliver him.

 

He'll get his deal, go back to the people claiming to have won the day for Brexit (which he will have done, hands down), win any subsequent election off the back of looking like the most competent politician in the room, and finish off Labour. The left and centre will turn on Corbyn of course, although I do now think that actually, Labour had played this fairly well throughout - being able to take us into the ballpark of another referendum was always going to be difficult, but they have managed to get it right to the line. Corbyn will resign, someone else takes over but the energy drops out of the bottom of Labour and the youth give up on trying to change anything, going back to being disaffected. The Lib Dem vote collapses since the main reason anyone would vote for them has now disappeared.

 

And another decade of the Tories.

 

If he gets his deal through, IMO that's where we're heading.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

How can he scare the EU into thinking he's going to deliver No Deal when the law dictates that he has to request an extension and its within their gift to agree it. 

 

The EU are not going to agree a deal that they aren't happy with, and time is really fucking running out to get anything over the line here. Everyone is talking very positively because no one wants to be the one to say "it's over", especially not on the EU side. 

 

I reckon the overwhelmingly likely scenario is that he doesn't get a deal by the weekend and either he requests the extension himself or the courts order him to on Monday. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Gemmill said:

How can he scare the EU into thinking he's going to deliver No Deal when the law dictates that he has to request an extension and its within their gift to agree it. 

 

The EU are not going to agree a deal that they aren't happy with, and time is really fucking running out to get anything over the line here. Everyone is talking very positively because no one wants to be the one to say "it's over", especially not on the EU side. 

 

I reckon the overwhelmingly likely scenario is that he doesn't get a deal by the weekend and either he requests the extension himself or the courts order him to on Monday. 

 

This. It makes much more sense for the EU not to give an inch at this stage, and let Johnson be hoisted on his own petard. They've nothing to lose, the tories are making the UK a competitive threat on their door step (through reduced rights and standards). Merkel actually said this yesterday. In this scenario I'd actually think no deal suits the EU more than a watered down WA which facilitates our removal from the EU regulatory sphere. Why facilitate that? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

At this rate they might not even need to turn ip on Saturday. Barnier has apparently just told the EU27 that the UK's latest proposals are not enough and that they need to get something sorted by tonight. Time has pretty much run out. 

 

And assuming he somehow manages to deliver something acceptable tonight, it then needs to be revealed how much he's had to water down his proposals to get an agreement. At which point the ERG and DUP will get involved. 

 

I really can't see this happening. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Johnson reported to have been told to agree to an East West border by midnight or to forget it. Which loses him the DUP votes for definite. 

 

I can't imagine a world where the Labour rebels look at what this deal does for workers rights and vote it through. I saw Kinnock talking last night and he seemed to only be talking about voting through a deal which included stuff from the cross party talks last time around. This deal won't satisfy that. Its gonna be proper squeaky bum time if something does go to a vote but I don't even see it getting that far tbh. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's a shame CT isn't around to ask what he thinks will happen, so we can safely assume the opposite. 

 

I think Gemmill's right though. Johnson needs the buy in of the DUP. Although it is just about possible they will fold because they're fucked whichever way now. Having said that, they're stubborn bastards. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There will have to be some delay regardless now I think, so Johnson's Halloween promise is likely to be broken. Must admit I don't think that will massively damage him. Which way are the ex-Tory rebels likely to go on this?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Any of them who voted for May's deal will vote for this. The committment to a level playing field will see many of the ERG out but may well see several Labour rebels back the deal. The DUP are almost definitely out.

My hunch is that I can't see him getting the votes for this but it might be tight.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Gemmill said:

Has he committed to the level playing field? 

Not sure that's public knowledge or not, but I suspect he won't, otherwise what's the point? Apparently he wants less alignment than Canada or Japan had for their FTAs ffs. Any Labour MP voting for this is incredibly stupid or compromised imo.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.