Rayvin 5217 Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, Renton said: It doesn't have legs as it stands currently imo. It's a time limited diluted backstop. Can't see the ROI agreeing and EU27 will back them.  It doesn't suit Johnson either. The last thing he wants is a deal. This is all for show to further his blame game narrative.  I'm not sure you know, I think Johnson would take this. It's No Deal in all but NI.  2 minutes ago, Renton said: That's one nobody tbf.  Can you see Swinson saying anything different? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renton 21588 Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 26 minutes ago, Rayvin said:  I'm not sure you know, I think Johnson would take this. It's No Deal in all but NI.   Can you see Swinson saying anything different?  A deal gives us transition, settles the markets, stabilises the pound. No good for Johnson's backers who have bet on shorting it. I think Swinson would accept Corbyn for a short period if she thought it was a route to a 2nd referendum or revoke, yes.  I dunno. It's the time limited aspect of this deal that I can't see the EU agreeing to, it would be a massive climb down and just makes no sense. I think ROI and the EU are being very careful not to reject this outright, but I can't see what they gain from accepting this in the medium term. Maybe I'm missing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renton 21588 Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 Â Â Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rayvin 5217 Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 Encouraging but I still have a bad feeling about this. It looks like May's deal more or less with the caveat that the ERG are now probably in a position to vote for it as they know they're on the cusp of losing Brexit altogether. The sticking point appears to be the DUP alone, and it's not like Johnson actually needs them. Â Hmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewerk 30569 Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 Eh? The DUP are all for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rayvin 5217 Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 Just now, ewerk said: Eh? The DUP are all for it. Â Yeah sorry, I just mean when the EU comes along and insists that the they get the final say on termination. As it stands with Johnson's deal, the DUP have that, right? I assume the EU will kick that away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewerk 30569 Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 Well NI technically have the final say but for all intents and purposes it’s the DUP. It wouldn’t just meaning losing them though, they’ve quite a few friends now in the ERG. Taking out the Stormont lock would definitely meaning losing some Tory votes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renton 21588 Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 The so called Stormont lock invalidates the whole thing imo, it'll have to go, surely?  Thing is, if Johnson pulls this off I think he will walk the GE. Would the EU want that, tactically speaking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rayvin 5217 Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 34 minutes ago, Renton said: The so called Stormont lock invalidates the whole thing imo, it'll have to go, surely?  Thing is, if Johnson pulls this off I think he will walk the GE. Would the EU want that, tactically speaking?  What do the EU care once we're out? I really think they'd be fine with us getting a deal, the extent to which they need us has been hugely overblown. Or do you mean assuming it gets voted down in Parliament? Frankly I think they'd be fine with No Deal, I suspect they just want it over without looking like the bad guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewerk 30569 Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 There’s no doubt the EU would prefer we stayed as long as it’s put to bed. The problem we’d have is that this could become an issue at every election. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renton 21588 Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 15 minutes ago, Rayvin said: Â What do the EU care once we're out? I really think they'd be fine with us getting a deal, the extent to which they need us has been hugely overblown. Or do you mean assuming it gets voted down in Parliament? Frankly I think they'd be fine with No Deal, I suspect they just want it over without looking like the bad guys. Â You don't think the EU care about the direction of travel of the UK? They wouldn't mind having a low tax low regulation state on their doorstep? The 51st state? Thisnis where Johnson will take us. I am sure the EU would much prefer we went in a Norway direction, possibly to rejoin in a couple of decades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rayvin 5217 Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 1 hour ago, Renton said: Â You don't think the EU care about the direction of travel of the UK? They wouldn't mind having a low tax low regulation state on their doorstep? The 51st state? Thisnis where Johnson will take us. I am sure the EU would much prefer we went in a Norway direction, possibly to rejoin in a couple of decades. Â They'll be fine, with or without us but maybe. Â In other news:Â https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-politics-49913840 Â Kuennsberg is actually using the line that the Benn Act made Boris' life harder for getting a deal. She's legitimizing the insane notion that No Deal was helping us at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewerk 30569 Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 It’s true though, the Benn bill has taken away the threat of no deal. That threat was only ever going to work though if the two sides were close to a deal. It was never going to bridge the gap between Johnson’s proposal and what the EU are prepared to accept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renton 21588 Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 10 minutes ago, Rayvin said:  They'll be fine, with or without us but maybe.  In other news: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-politics-49913840  Kuennsberg is actually using the line that the Benn Act made Boris' life harder for getting a deal. She's legitimizing the insane notion that No Deal was helping us at all. The Benn act facilitates the overthrow of the government. The EU may well gamble on triggering it. Kind of proves my point. They don't want Johnson as UK PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobinRobin 11259 Posted October 3, 2019 Share Posted October 3, 2019 18 hours ago, Rayvin said: We won't vote out next time. Remain will have learned, the youth will have learned. And hopefully most of the old racists will have died   17 hours ago, Rayvin said: I'm struggling with it a bit then because none of the leaders have covered themselves in glory. Maybe just someone smart enough to hold up in debates. Cooper?  Surely Bob Geldof on his boat on the Thames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobinRobin 11259 Posted October 3, 2019 Share Posted October 3, 2019 13 hours ago, Renton said: I'm going to agree with this. If it weren't for the unicorns, leave wouldn't have got 40%. Only fly in the ointment now is pig headed stubbornness.   What has happened to CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gemmill 44811 Posted October 3, 2019 Share Posted October 3, 2019 Â Â Â Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gemmill 44811 Posted October 3, 2019 Share Posted October 3, 2019 4 hours ago, RobinRobin said: What has happened to CT?  He popped up a little while back to say the level of political debate on here is beneath him. I think he's sticking to mumsnet these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gemmill 44811 Posted October 3, 2019 Share Posted October 3, 2019 Btw I guarantee he is now using the phrase Get Brexit Done. He'll have felt like Johnson was talking directly to him during his speech, looking around the room at his wife like "are you hearing this? This man GETS me. Britain CAN rule the waves again. We just need to GET BREXIT DONE." 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renton 21588 Posted October 3, 2019 Share Posted October 3, 2019 55 minutes ago, Gemmill said:  He popped up a little while back to say the level of political debate on here is beneath him. I think he's sticking to mumsnet these days.  Mumsnet has a brilliant Brexit forum tbf, far more intelligent than here...  Anyway, looks like the EU won't enter talks with the UK, and Johnson will snub the summit. Crunch time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Gloom 21912 Posted October 3, 2019 Share Posted October 3, 2019 14 hours ago, Rayvin said: Am concerned that the EU haven't dismissed this out of hand...  If it somehow is made to work, and then it goes back to Parliament, the following issues would be a problem:  1 - The Tory rebels might back it along with some Labour rebels.  2 - it really will set the people against parliament if it gets voted down.  A deal has always been the biggest remaining threat to us IMO. I think a likely scenario that it gets the votes on the condition that a confirmatory referendum is attached Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Gloom 21912 Posted October 3, 2019 Share Posted October 3, 2019 14 hours ago, Renton said: It doesn't have legs as it stands currently imo. It's a time limited diluted backstop. Can't see the ROI agreeing and EU27 will back them.  It doesn't suit Johnson either. The last thing he wants is a deal. This is all for show to further his blame game narrative. Inclined to agree with this but it would be beautiful if it blows up in his face and he has to campaign for his deal that he can’t abide in a second referendum, which he goes on to lose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renton 21588 Posted October 3, 2019 Share Posted October 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said: I think a likely scenario that it gets the votes on the condition that a confirmatory referendum is attached  I would love this to happen. Rees Mogg and Farage can be reminded they have both said there should be a confirmatory referendum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewerk 30569 Posted October 3, 2019 Share Posted October 3, 2019 (edited) I don't see how any Labour rebel votes for this given the commitment to diverge from a level playing field. Though of course some would. Edited October 3, 2019 by ewerk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewerk 30569 Posted October 3, 2019 Share Posted October 3, 2019 On 10/2/2019 at 08:00, ewerk said: It's designed to piss off the EU. It doesn't even attempt to address their concerns. What is more enraging is that it completely throws Northern Ireland under the bus. With the NI specific backstop we'd have had the best of both world's, access to the EU market and access to GB. This plan would curtail our access to both of those markets. It's a steaming pile of shit. That's quite a statement. Yet the DUP are happy to sign off on it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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