Europe --- In or Out

[Rayvin 5183]

Just now, Meenzer said:

 

They'll be back once there's an actual election date. Farage is at his best (regrettably) when he's got something to campaign for.

 

 

There's a chance he could end up campaigning on two fronts though, against Johnson and Corbyn. Johnson has a tough choice to make with this - if he opens the door to Farage, he loses moderates. If he closes the door, the Brexit vote is split in key regions. I've even seen commenters in the Mail saying they will ditch the Tories if they ally with Farage. So if we get past October 31st I think Farage will be emboldened but it will be at the expense of the Tories.

 

Also, Farage has failed on 7 occasions to be elected as an MP. I'm sure he'll manage it this time, but he clearly isn't fantastic at GEs.

[ewerk 30266]

9 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

The LDs appear to be targeting the Tory moderates. Combined with the sophisticated tactical voting plan that the People's Vote group is going to produce, I think it's odds on that a Remain coalition comes out on top.

The remain coalition doesn't include Labour. If they get 100 seats (including the SNP) then they'll be doing well.

[Kevin Carr's Gloves 3809]

2 minutes ago, ewerk said:

The remain coalition doesn't include Labour. If they get 100 seats (including the SNP) then they'll be doing well.

The Tories will haemorrhage seats in Scotland again.

[Rayvin 5183]

9 minutes ago, ewerk said:

The remain coalition doesn't include Labour. If they get 100 seats (including the SNP) then they'll be doing well.

 

The Remain coalition + Labour gives us that second vote though.

[ewerk 30266]

3 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

 

The Remain coalition + Labour gives us that second vote though.

Yeah but the fact that there won't be an electoral pact between them will damage both. Basically I can't see the pact meaning massive gains for anyone involved in it but at the same time it mightn't take much to tip the balance.

[Rayvin 5183]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/19/peoples-vote-tells-labour-mps-not-to-back-a-johnson-brexit-deal

 

On the other hand, about 20-30 Labour MPs are apparently poised to vote for a deal if Johnson provides one.

Edited September 20, 2019 by Rayvin

[Rayvin 5183]

Just now, ewerk said:

Yeah but the fact that there won't be an electoral pact between them will damage both. Basically I can't see the pact meaning massive gains for anyone involved in it but at the same time it mightn't take much to tip the balance.

 

I think that's where we have to rely on the People's Vote group to be the 'informal and unofficial remain pact'. If this is to be a single issue election, anyone seeking remain over and above any other considerations should vote the way they're suggested to.

[ewerk 30266]

27 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/19/peoples-vote-tells-labour-mps-not-to-back-a-johnson-brexit-deal

 

On the other hand, about 20-30 Labour MPs are apparently poised to vote for a deal if Johnson provides one.

I don't think what you say is entirely accurate. They're prepared to vote for a deal that protects workers' rights and the environment. The chances of Johnson agreeing to anything like that are slim.

I think this may be partly about going back to their constituencies and saying, 'well I tried to get us out'. Hopefully it will see every one of them lose their seat to a remainer.

Edit: Though then again Stephen Kinnock is just a cunt. He's not going to lose his seat regardless of his Brexit views.

Edited September 20, 2019 by ewerk

[Rayvin 5183]

1 minute ago, ewerk said:

I don't think what you say is entirely accurate. They're prepared to vote for a deal that protects workers' rights and the environment. The chances of Johnson agreeing to anything like that are slim.

I think this may be partly about going back to their constituencies and saying, 'well I tried to get us out'. Hopefully it will see every one of them lose their seat to a remainer.

 

True, but if I was Johnson I'd take that. Workers rights and the environment - easily things that can be rode roughshod over once we're out.

[ewerk 30266]

1 minute ago, Rayvin said:

 

True, but if I was Johnson I'd take that. Workers rights and the environment - easily things that can be rode roughshod over once we're out.

Well if he wanted to invalidate our deal with the EU and show to the world that we're prepared to renege on the very first post-Brexit deal we do.

[Rayvin 5183]

5 minutes ago, ewerk said:

Well if he wanted to invalidate our deal with the EU and show to the world that we're prepared to renege on the very first post-Brexit deal we do.

 

I get what you're saying but I'm not having a hard time believing that this could happen

[ewerk 30266]

TBF neither do I.

[Renton 21310]

Johnson is a populist narcissist, and actually quite liberal. He's not particularly motivated by an extreme right wing ideology. The real concern is those behind him. 

[Alex 34846]

6 hours ago, Howmanheyman said:

I can't watch it. 

It’s years since I’ve been able to sit through more than about 30 seconds of it

[Dr Gloom 21813]

5 hours ago, Rayvin said:

I am convinced a second referendum will put this to bed if we can just get there.

god, i'm not. especially after watching QT last night 

[Renton 21310]

QT is the same every fucking week, unbearable. The same guests, the same outraged gammons, the same libtards tiptoeing around them. This could go on a few decades yet.

 

 

[Rayvin 5183]

1 minute ago, Dr Gloom said:

god, i'm not. especially after watching QT last night 

 

What are you basing that on though? So what if a handful of people had some ridiculous views, that tells us nothing about the country at large. Even if the show pulls together a cross section of the public with the same level of impartiality and rigour as polling companies do, did they assess the extent to which the leavers had a majority within the audience there?

[Renton 21310]

If there is another referendum Remain has to go witg a ticket it is the only option that will end this shit. This might sway some leavers who believe a "clean Brexit" will end things when it will just make it last much, much longer. 

 

MAKE IT END. VOTE REMAIN.

[Dr Gloom 21813]

i don't watch it religiously, and have found it ever more difficult to sit through since 2016. but every time i do watch it, i'm reminded of how the loudest round of applause of the show are repeatedly reserved for the types of comments that scare the bejesus out of the likes of us. they won't vote the way we want them to in a PV, and even then they won't be happy. like Renton suggests, i see this rumbling on for decades. there is no end in sight to this.  

[Rayvin 5183]

1 minute ago, Dr Gloom said:

i don't watch it religiously, and have found it ever more difficult to sit through since 2016. but every time i do watch it, i'm reminded of how the loudest round of applause of the show are repeatedly reserved for the types of comments that scare the bejesus out of the likes of us. they won't vote the way we want them to in a PV, and even then they won't be happy. like Renton suggests, i see this rumbling on for decades. there is no end in sight to this.  

 

Unless we vote Remain. Which I genuinely think will happen if we get the chance. The loudest round of applause in QT isn't anything that should alarm you - these people are loud in comment sections, on twitter, in the pub - but it doesn't make them a majority. Even the last time out, it was the marginal Brexit voters who cost us the whole thing - not the gammons. We don't need to bring them on board, all we need is the people who just want the whole thing to go away and to be able to make ends meet.

[Dr Gloom 21813]

I obviously hope you’re right. 

[Rayvin 5183]

7 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:

I obviously hope you’re right. 

 

I could be wrong, but I don't think I am. I think the big risk is that Parliament folds and we crash out or get some kind of last minute stitch up arrangement that is basically hard brexit. If we can get past October 31st, even if we have to go through an election first, I think we'll come out on top in the end. Although I'm more confident about the referendum outcome than I am about a GE, which may be a prerequisite for the former.

 

Having said that, you have to imagine that as far as the likes of the Daily Mail are concerned, it'll be a cold day in hell before they watch Corbyn walk into Downing Street off the back of a vote to keep us in the EU.

Edited September 20, 2019 by Rayvin

[Howmanheyman 32728]

22 hours ago, Dr Gloom said:

It hammers home the fact a second vote probably won’t produce the result most of us want and you get a sense of why the polls give Johnson such a big lead. 

 

17 hours ago, Alex said:

It’s years since I’ve been able to sit through more than about 30 seconds of it

 

17 hours ago, Renton said:

QT is the same every fucking week, unbearable. The same guests, the same outraged gammons, the same libtards tiptoeing around them. This could go on a few decades yet.

 

 

Who gets to go on the show? How are they vetted? There's stooges who go on masquerading as the general public and I don't think this will change any time soon as later discovery of a stooge has less impact than their outraged point when originally broadcast. The show is as much 'entertainment' and viewing figures I'd guess as politics and I really can't take it as read that this is a true microcosm of the population. I just don't trust the production management or their motives and the guest list is usually populist, controversial, skewed to a right wing panel or a combination of the lot. A couple of minutes watching it by chance is all I can manage before it goes off. 

[Rayvin 5183]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/20/thornberry-labour-could-back-tory-brexit-deal-in-exchange-for-referendum

 

Labour could vote through any deal Boris comes back with as long as we get a referendum on it. I think I'm ok on this idea.

[Monkeys Fist 42066]

You trust the public of this country with a referendum??