Europe --- In or Out

[Rayvin 5183]

If he gets something through with the EU concerning NI, would it not still mean 'no deal' for the rest of us. Is it any more likely to get through Parliament even if he does fix that.

[PaddockLad 17079]

7 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

If he gets something through with the EU concerning NI, would it not still mean 'no deal' for the rest of us. Is it any more likely to get through Parliament even if he does fix that.

 

Youd like to think he’d just tweek the existing WA?.. 

[Rayvin 5183]

They voted that down every time though. Johnson getting a deal is his only 'out' now, I'm concerned about Parliament granting No Deal in all but name (May's deal) and giving him a lifeline.

[ewerk 30266]

36 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

If he gets something through with the EU concerning NI, would it not still mean 'no deal' for the rest of us. Is it any more likely to get through Parliament even if he does fix that.

Well the backstop was what most Tories claimed that they were opposed to. If it was restricted to NI only and the DUP were on board with that then their concerns would seem to have been allayed. Throw into that a number of Labour MPs who want a deal and might be persuaded by a committment to a level playing field and you have yourself a majority.

The problem of course is that there are many in the ERG who seemingly only want no deal now. How many of them there are remains to be seen.

Also, it is unlikely that Ireland are will to accept much watering down of the NI backstop element, they're going to want cast iron guarantees that this can't break down in a couple of years time.

There is a path there to a deal but it's terribly narrow and time is very much against us.

[PaddockLad 17079]

Think they’ll be a gigantic fudge. None of the 600 odd twats will want to be remembered as the parliament that couldn’t deliver “the will of the people” 🙄

[Rayvin 5183]

I think I'm hoping it all falls flat ultimately, risky though that may be.

[Renton 21310]

2 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

I think I'm hoping it all falls flat ultimately, risky though that may be.

Me too. May's deal is just a stepping stone to something much worse.

 

I think we've ran out of time for any kind of deal without an extension. Surely the opposition will want to see Johnson humiliated too, I can't see any deal passing the HoC. 

[Kevin Carr's Gloves 3809]

2 hours ago, PaddockLad said:

Also, this....

 

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/dup-opens-door-to-new-brexit-deal-for-boris-johnson-xjp37vrjh

 

 

Denied

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/sep/13/brexit-boris-johnson-dup-backstop-john-bercow-eu-yellowhammer-live-news

[PaddockLad 17079]

Marina Hyde 😆

 

“The only upside to suspending parliament has been the social damage done to Jacob Rees-Mogg. Not two months ago, that appalling old Hyacinth Bucket swept into office issuing naff decrees on the minutiae of how to address envelopes. He has now committed the somewhat greater faux pas of bullshitting the Queen.”

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/sep/13/tories-duty-free-government-no-deal-advertising-booze

[ewerk 30266]

Johnson's press conference with the Luxembourg PM:

[ewerk 30266]

He literally can't even negotiate a press conference with Luxembourg.

[Sonatine 11309]

 

[Rayvin 5183]

Lib Dems have made things difficult now IMO. They look to be the extremists on the Remain side in the same sense that the Tories are now the extremists on the Brexit side.

 

Labour amazingly look like they've positioned themselves in the fairest way, with the highest chance of putting the issue to bed without total chaos. Unsure which way to vote now but am starting to think NJS is right about Swinson. While I still don't know her politics very well, I think she's started running before she can walk here.

 

I'm not someone who believes that Corbyn is an 'extreme option' outside of Brexit, but I'm a bit curious to know what the people who do think about the current lay of the land. Choices for them are now "extreme Brexit, extreme Remain, or extreme Corbyn"

[NJS 4371]

Swinson was interviewed yesterday and mocked the tories for spending money and alluded to tough choices suggesting more austerity. 

 

I saw it suggested she's positioning them as Cameron's tory party leaving Johnson more akin to ukip which I sort of agreed with. 

 

As a few people have also suggested her aim is to try and win 30 or more seats rather than to stop brexit. 

 

 

 

[Rayvin 5183]

If she's going after the Tories then it's no bad thing. The Lib Dems, I'm positive, used to eat more into Labour's vote share than anyone else's. If that's about to change then good.

[ewerk 30266]

She's ruled out working with Corbyn or Johnson. It's hard to see either of the other parties getting an overall majority so I don't know where that leaves us after the GE.

[NJS 4371]

She's going to pull the Clegg "change your leader and we'll talk" trick which is fucking disgusting to me. 

[ewerk 30266]

Not really, it's part of negotiations. Not that there's any chance it would work with Corbyn.

Get Corbyn out and make Chukka PM would be my suggestion.

[NJS 4371]

I think it was wrong for Brown as well (even though he offered to go) - the GE is fought on a manifesto which may have negotiation room but a leader is the party's business. 

[Anorthernsoul 1221]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/sep/17/brexit-latest-news-supreme-court-minister-refuses-to-rule-out-boris-johnson-suspending-parliament-again-ahead-of-supreme-court-hearing-live-news

[Renton 21310]

2 hours ago, Rayvin said:

Lib Dems have made things difficult now IMO. They look to be the extremists on the Remain side in the same sense that the Tories are now the extremists on the Brexit side.

 

Labour amazingly look like they've positioned themselves in the fairest way, with the highest chance of putting the issue to bed without total chaos. Unsure which way to vote now but am starting to think NJS is right about Swinson. While I still don't know her politics very well, I think she's started running before she can walk here.

 

I'm not someone who believes that Corbyn is an 'extreme option' outside of Brexit, but I'm a bit curious to know what the people who do think about the current lay of the land. Choices for them are now "extreme Brexit, extreme Remain, or extreme Corbyn"

 

She didn't impress me at all on the Marr show. I won't be voting Lib Dem with her in charge. As long as labour make a cast iron guarantee of a referendum with Remain on the ticket they'll probably get my vote, despite old cunty chops  Corbyn. 

[Rayvin 5183]

19 minutes ago, Renton said:

 

She didn't impress me at all on the Marr show. I won't be voting Lib Dem with her in charge. As long as labour make a cast iron guarantee of a referendum with Remain on the ticket they'll probably get my vote, despite old cunty chops  Corbyn. 

 

Yeah that's where I'm heading. Outright revoke is fine if it comes down to an all or nothing scenario where it's the only way to avert No Deal, but otherwise we have to believe that after all this, the public are can actually do the right thing on a second vote. And as NJS said, I suppose they've done this without any expectation whatsoever that they'll be in the position to do anything about it. As such, they're banking on picking up the diehard remainers, probably from Labour - it's just cynical.

 

And fucking risky.

 

Labour's position does seem to be the only responsible option.

[Renton 21310]

1 minute ago, Rayvin said:

 

Yeah that's where I'm heading. Outright revoke is fine if it comes down to an all or nothing scenario where it's the only way to avert No Deal, but otherwise we have to believe that after all this, the public are can actually do the right thing on a second vote. And as NJS said, I suppose they've done this without any expectation whatsoever that they'll be in the position to do anything about it. As such, they're banking on picking up the diehard remainers, probably from Labour - it's just cynical.

 

And fucking risky.

 

Labour's position does seem to be the only responsible option.

 

The difficulty is, what is the alternative on the ballot paper to Remain? It has to be a real actionable option and I don't think no deal fits the bill. Thornberry's suggestion they will get a deal and campaign against it is also ludicrous. 

 

Honestly, I just wish there was some way of achieving a soft EFTA style Brexit. Keep us in the SM and CU, keep my rights and my children's rights, and I can live with it. It's what May should have gone for on day one. If you read back, at the time it's what we all assumed would happen. May's inherent racism and the ERG put pay to that though, now we're fucked every which way. 

[NJS 4371]

I saw a poll yesterday where the (still alive) people who voted in 2016 was 52-48 leave and including new voters it was 52-48 remain. Aside from assuming victory ignoring what's is still half the country seems dubious. It also shows the arguments since have been so shit they haven't any visible effect. 

[Rayvin 5183]

1 minute ago, NJS said:

I saw a poll yesterday where the (still alive) people who voted in 2016 was 52-48 leave and including new voters it was 52-48 remain. Aside from assuming victory ignoring what's is still half the country seems dubious. It also shows the arguments since have been so shit they haven't any visible effect. 

 

I'm not sure the arguments have been poor, I think it's more that the delivery has been lacking. And also, in fairness, the will on the leave side to pay any attention to people who are demonstrably better informed has been entirely absent.