Europe --- In or Out

[Gemmill 44398]

How can Corbyn be on the verge of completely checkmating Johnson, and yet by all accounts he's about to fuck it up with the final play. 

[Rayvin 5183]

17 minutes ago, Gemmill said:

How can Corbyn be on the verge of completely checkmating Johnson, and yet by all accounts he's about to fuck it up with the final play. 

 

Could all be part of the theatre. Sounds like there will be a mass Labour rebellion either way which might actually be enough to stop it. Corbyn could actually have his cake and eat it here if he's into unbelievably high stakes gambling.

[Rayvin 5183]

An anonymous minister has just advised that Boris will resign rather than go to the EU for an extension. If that happens, honestly, I think we should get that rainbow coalition. They get in, carry out a people's vote, then run a general election and put the damn thing to bed. On that basis, Corbyn should absolutely not countenance an October GE.

[Gemmill 44398]

4 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

 

Could all be part of the theatre. Sounds like there will be a mass Labour rebellion either way which might actually be enough to stop it. Corbyn could actually have his cake and eat it here if he's into unbelievably high stakes gambling.

 

They should be going into an election united though, not on the back of a party splitting rebellion. Especially when it's a rebellion required cos the leader can't think straight. 

[PaddockLad 17079]

I think regardless of when any GE is held the equation remains the same. It'll be framed as remain v leave and Johnson v parliament. I think he'll win. 

[Rayvin 5183]

1 minute ago, Gemmill said:

 

They should be going into an election united though, not on the back of a party splitting rebellion. Especially when it's a rebellion required cos the leader can't think straight. 

 

Yep true. It might de-toxify Corbyn in some ways, but in other ways it looks like the chaos in the Tory party has spread to Labour.

 

I think Corbyn is generally doing ok at the moment though so I'm going to wait and see before judging him.

[Rayvin 5183]

1 minute ago, PaddockLad said:

I think regardless of when any GE is held the equation remains the same. It'll be framed as remain v leave and Johnson v parliament. I think he'll win. 

 

Not if we have the people's vote first.

 

And also, Johnson is going to be compelled to ask the EU for an extension, days after saying he would do this under no circumstances. That kind of thing will drive people to the Brexit Party even if he didn't have a choice. And if he resigns rather than go through that, then we have who, exactly, leading the Tories? Gove? I'm not sure it'll be enough, they have no one left except Rees-Mogg who has been visible on Brexit particularly.

[ewerk 30266]

25 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

An anonymous minister has just advised that Boris will resign rather than go to the EU for an extension. If that happens, honestly, I think we should get that rainbow coalition. They get in, carry out a people's vote, then run a general election and put the damn thing to bed. On that basis, Corbyn should absolutely not countenance an October GE.

It's 'do or die' for Johnson. Let him die.

[Renton 21311]

31 minutes ago, PaddockLad said:

I think regardless of when any GE is held the equation remains the same. It'll be framed as remain v leave and Johnson v parliament. I think he'll win. 

 

Key to this is making Johnson miss his deadline, the BP will split the Tory vote in two and they are finished. Looking at the distribution of marginal seats the Tories are much more vulnerable than you might think. I'm optimistic, but still can't help think what a non Corbyn led Labour party could have done. 

Edited September 5, 2019 by Renton

[Chaser 1204]

There is a lot of intelligent conversation which is unfortunately unravelled when anyone considers Corbyn to be a credible leader. 

 

Momentum is largely responsible for creating the huge fuck up that we see happening in Parliament. The lack of effective opposition has created a stalemate. The electorate dont want Corbyn and McDonald running the show but Mckluskey is quite happy to keep him them in play in the hope that the government eventually bring themselves down. 

 

 

[Rayvin 5183]

Just now, Chaser said:

There is a lot of intelligent conversation which is unfortunately unravelled when anyone considers Corbyn to be a credible leader. 

 

Momentum is largely responsible for creating the huge fuck up that we see happening in Parliament. The lack of effective opposition has created a stalemate. The electorate dont want Corbyn and McDonald running the show but Mckluskey is quite happy to keep him them in play in the hope that the government eventually bring themselves down. 

 

 

 

How have Momentum caused this over and above the Tories, exactly?

 

In the 2017 GE, Corbyn got 40% of the vote. The Tories got 43%. That's a decent chunk of the electorate. Labour are down in the polls at the moment only because 50% of their 2017 voters have abandoned them for the LDs, because they want to Remain.

[Chaser 1204]

7 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

 

How have Momentum caused this over and above the Tories, exactly?

 

In the 2017 GE, Corbyn got 40% of the vote. The Tories got 43%. That's a decent chunk of the electorate. Labour are down in the polls at the moment only because 50% of their 2017 voters have abandoned them for the LDs, because they want to Remain.

I didn't say they caused this, Cameron and Farage caused it. They are just largely responsible for the weak alternative since May got her dirty mitts on the top job. 

 

I'll have a £100 with anyone that Corbyn doesn't get in. Even if the left support increases, the Lib Dems will cut any swing from the Tories. 

[Rayvin 5183]

6 minutes ago, Chaser said:

I didn't say they caused this, Cameron and Farage caused it. They are just largely responsible for the weak alternative since May got her dirty mitts on the top job. 

 

I'll have a £100 with anyone that Corbyn doesn't get in. Even if the left support increases, the Lib Dems will cut any swing from the Tories. 

 

I don't think Corbyn will get in either, but I think that's largely because his Brexit position isn't going to change - I mean I was a long time backer of his and I won't vote Labour next time out principally because of that. I could see him perhaps getting in through a coalition government.

 

And you said Momentum were responsible for creating the huge fuck up - what would a stronger opposition have done differently? Assuming they had the same number of MPs as Corbyn does now. Unless you believe that Labour would have won more MPs last time without him, despite having a 10% increase in vote share. Or is it that if Corbyn had not been leader during the referendum, none of this ever would have happened because instead of 67% of Labour voters going for Remain, 80% of them would have (the number required to break even against the Remain/Leave differential), a higher proportion of its members than the LDs and even the Greens if I remember rightly.

Edited September 5, 2019 by Rayvin

[NJS 4371]

I think Swinson will reveal what a nasty tory shit she is which could be a factor. 

[Rayvin 5183]

2 minutes ago, NJS said:

I think Swinson will reveal what a nasty tory shit she is which could be a factor. 

 

That she may be, but she's also staunchly Remain. She's polar opposed to the Tories on Brexit and I don't think the Lib Dems, if faced with a coalition prospect that delivers a second referendum, could possibly turn it down even if it meant enabling Corbyn. Not without betraying their voters all over again and heading for another decade in the wilderness.

Edited September 5, 2019 by Rayvin

[ewerk 30266]

1 minute ago, NJS said:

I think Swinson will reveal what a nasty tory shit she is which could be a factor. 

What exactly is your issue with female Lib Dem leader, Swinson? You barely mentioned her predecessors when they were in charge.

[Renton 21311]

Fucking hell man, Rees Mogg comparing Dr Nicholl to Andrew Wakefield  This is a new low. Every day these cunts plumb new depths. 

Edited September 5, 2019 by Renton

[NJS 4371]

She's said in no circumstances which means she'll do a Clegg and insist he resigns. She's a cunt. 

[Rayvin 5183]

Just now, Renton said:

Fucking hello man, Rees Mogg comparing Dr Nicholl to Andrew Wakefield  This is a new low. Every day these cunts plumb new depths. 

 

Fucking good afternoon

 

And yes, it's.. I mean none of this surprises me anymore.

[Rayvin 5183]

Just now, NJS said:

She's said in no circumstances which means she'll do a Clegg and insist he resigns. She's a cunt. 

 

The LDs are going to be in a stronger position after any upcoming GE than they are now. Maybe she has the clout to demand that. In which case she enables a BP/Tory coalition, as the next most viable alternative, I would think.

 

I just can't see her doing that.

[NJS 4371]

1 minute ago, ewerk said:

What exactly is your issue with female Lib Dem leader, Swinson? You barely mentioned her predecessors when they were in charge.

Cable is a corrupt bastard who made money out of privatising royal mail. 

 

Clegg  is a tory enabling cunt. 

 

Farron was a faith head bigot. 

 

Kennedy was a decent bloke. 

[Renton 21311]

We've Johnson as PM and NJS is attacking Swinson 

 

 

[Rayvin 5183]

Swinson delivered a very good anti-Boris speech yesterday, I was impressed with it.

 

Having said this, beyond her Brexit position I have no idea what she even stands for. I would love to hear her articulate which of Corbyn's policy positions she objects to though.

Edited September 5, 2019 by Rayvin

[ewerk 30266]

Just now, Rayvin said:

 

Having said this, beyond her Brexit position I have no idea what she even stands for.

To be honest, outside of Brexit I've no real idea what the Lib Dems in general stand for.

[NJS 4371]

1 minute ago, Renton said:

We've Johnson as PM and NJS is attacking Swinson 

 

 

I was describing her chances in the upcoming GE. I think you know what I think of Johnson.