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Europe --- In or Out


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Am I missing something obvious but surely it’s the WA that’s the toxic part? It’s the backstop that the ERG brigade hate. Why would bringing that alone without the political declaration have more chance of passing?

Edited by ewerk
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13 minutes ago, ewerk said:

Am I missing something obvious but surely it’s the WA that’s the toxic part? It’s the backstop that the ERG brigade hate. Why would bringing that alone without the political declaration have more chance of passing?

 

I don't think you're missing anything. Especially since the EU and the PM are both on record as saying that both the WA and the political declaration live hand in hand or not at all.

 

They're just trying anything at this point rather than having...any idea at all why they get out of bed.

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20 minutes ago, Andrew said:

 

I don't think you're missing anything. Especially since the EU and the PM are both on record as saying that both the WA and the political declaration live hand in hand or not at all.

 

They're just trying anything at this point rather than having...any idea at all why they get out of bed.

:lol: That’s about the height of it but they’re really clutching at straws at the moment.

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28 minutes ago, ewerk said:

Am I missing something obvious but surely it’s the WA that’s the toxic part? It’s the backstop that the ERG brigade hate. Why would bringing that alone without the political declaration have more chance of passing?

 

Its a token vote (so complicated the attorney general will be opening it.

 

Basically, the idea is that if we pass it tomorrow then it meets the EU’s deadline for the extension to 22nd May.

 

However because it’s not attached to the political declaration, it can’t pass U.K. law.

 

So if it passes tomorrow, we have til 22nd May to argue with each other. If it doesn’t, we’ve got til 12th April. That means we’ll have to seek a long extension within 14 days and sign up to EU elections etc.

 

ERG and DUP both happy with long extension as allows time for brexiteer leader etc.

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Can’t get over that bloke saying pretty girls and leave voters in the same sentence.

 

Glad CT is posting in this thread again btw, got everything he has ever claimed wrong so providing so certainty

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22 hours ago, ewerk said:

And she only got the top job because two of her rivals fucked each other over and the other one fucked up massively and had to withdraw. 

 

This sums her up really, she was clearly disliked in her own party well before she crawled into the PM's chair.

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/18/what-does-theresa-mays-record-as-home-secretary-tell-us

 

 

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Seems CT is in good company with other Tories voters (well, members anyway)

 

The month before last, 19 per cent of Party member respondents to our survey said that the agreement was acceptable to them. Last month, the total saying that MPs should vote for it touched 40 per cent. This month, it has reached 60 per cent.

That’s the first time the deal has obtained the backing of a majority of replies in any form. Three in five is a clear-cut margin – although over one in three party members remain opposed, if our survey is anything to go by.

 

Hard to accuse Tory voters of consistency, it has to be said.

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Tory strategy for today appears to be threatening MPs with the prospect that voting the deal down today could lead to a straight choice between No Deal or Revoke, since there is 'no guarantee that the EU would give us an extension'.

 

I note that none of the EU politicians have come out with anything reassuring about this today so far, but they have done previously.

Edited by Rayvin
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6 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

Tory strategy for today appears to be threatening MPs with the prospect that voting the deal down today could lead to a straight choice between No Deal or Revoke, since there is 'no guarantee that the EU would give us an extension'.

 

I note that none of the EU politicians have come out with anything reassuring about this today so far, but they have done previously.

I think the plan is that if this passes today then we get the slightly longer extension. Then by the time May 22nd comes we can't extend any further as we won't have taken part in European elections.

Though I don't think that it's anyway legally certain that we get the extension unless the political declaration is also passed.

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I recall that the EU's offer only referenced the withdrawal agreement. But you're right, whether that's legally the position or not, I don't know - but again, you would think the EU would have clarified if the Tories had jumped the gun on it.

 

Anyway, it's still going to die. The DUP seem hard against and Bill Cash (No Dealer) was just up refusing to vote for it. Short of a significant number of Labour rebels, she's still fucked.

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SNP slamming Labour MPs now for considering voting for the deal.

 

EDIT - There seems to be some serious concern that a significant number of Labour MPs might go that way actually... surely not?

Edited by Rayvin
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25 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

I recall that the EU's offer only referenced the withdrawal agreement.

It is true that Art 1 of the European Council Decision refers to "the Withdrawal Agreement", and not, in terms, to the Political Declaration. However, the preamble to the Decision mentions the WA and the PD in one breath: see paras (5) and (6).  Moreover, Art 184 of the WA makes express reference to the PD "of 25 November 2018", and no other PD. Art 184 is about a commitment to negotiate the future relationship expeditiously, implementing the PD.  It is therefore clear that the current WA and the current PD are indissociable. So when the European Council asked for the Commons' approval of the WA, this includes the current PD.

 

Call me a liar again and I'll fight you in the car park of a Toby Carvery of your choosing.

Edited by ewerk
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