TheGingerQuiff 2412 Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 If she looked like no dealing then a motion of no confidence would oust her, stop being a vag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gemmill 44392 Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 Just now, Renton said: Not just Peston though. Listen g to the legal stuff on the remainiac podcast last night, the situation is grim, confirmed by Dunt etc. My impression is May will go for no deal now and it is nigh on impossible to stop her. The only narrative that matters to her is the one in her head, and on this she is an evangelical. But it is possible to stop her. Because of the additional time that's been afforded Parliament, we no longer have the meaningful vote followed by a very short period of chaos in which we crash out. There is now time for Parliament to demonstrate a preference for something else. Obviously she CAN just choose to ignore that but then all of the chaos of no deal will sit squarely on her shoulders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewerk 30266 Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 I'd take all this talk of May being a no dealer with a pinch of salt. It's pretty much the only play she can use to get her deal through at this stage. No one has taken her threats of no deal seriously up until now so she's doubling down. That's not to say it won't happen but I wouldn't be shitting in my pants just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renton 21306 Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 3 minutes ago, Rayvin said: The way I see it, May loses MV3 and resigns - Parliament then gets to have its indicative votes exercise. If they still can't come to agreement by April 12th, then they can just go with May's deal - the only reason MV3 isn't going through is that there is a majority for a softer Brexit. If they get the chance to try for it, and it doesn't stick, those same MPs aren't going to just allow No Deal when May's option remains possible. So Labour will vote against the whip en masse? I doubt it. And after Wednesday, the ERG are hugely emboldened. Their prize is almost in grasp now, with May's implicit backing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renton 21306 Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 Just now, Gemmill said: But it is possible to stop her. Because of the additional time that's been afforded Parliament, we no longer have the meaningful vote followed by a very short period of chaos in which we crash out. There is now time for Parliament to demonstrate a preference for something else. Obviously she CAN just choose to ignore that but then all of the chaos of no deal will sit squarely on her shoulders. We've less than 3 weeks. We've been fucking around for 3 years! What are the bookies saying? (blocked here) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gemmill 44392 Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 1 minute ago, Renton said: So Labour will vote against the whip en masse? I doubt it. And after Wednesday, the ERG are hugely emboldened. Their prize is almost in grasp now, with May's implicit backing. They're emboldened but they don't have the numbers. The stupid cunts are about to find out that bulldog spirit can't overcome maths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renton 21306 Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 1 minute ago, ewerk said: I'd take all this talk of May being a no dealer with a pinch of salt. It's pretty much the only play she can use to get her deal through at this stage. No one has taken her threats of no deal seriously up until now so she's doubling down. That's not to say it won't happen but I wouldn't be shitting in my pants just yet. Maybe, but this was the impression of the EU27. If you're right she deserves an Oscar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gemmill 44392 Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 Just now, Renton said: We've less than 3 weeks. We've been fucking around for 3 years! What are the bookies saying? (blocked here) We don't have to finalise the agreement. We need to indicate enough of a change in tack to get more time. The 3 weeks then becomes 9 months or whatever, and all of this becomes much more negotiable without her fucking stupid red lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rayvin 5176 Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 Just now, Renton said: So Labour will vote against the whip en masse? I doubt it. And after Wednesday, the ERG are hugely emboldened. Their prize is almost in grasp now, with May's implicit backing. Wait what? I'm not saying MV3 will pass. It won't. I'm saying that when it fails, the primary reason it is going to fail isn't because of the ERG - it's because most MPs are remainers. So the majority is for a softer Brexit. So her deal fails, she resigns, and then parliament can actually discuss how to proceed - something they have been unable to do for 3 years. If they can't make anything work in the 3 weeks leading up to April 12th, then I think they will back May's deal because even for Labour, it's better than No Deal. It will remain an option until the last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renton 21306 Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 1 minute ago, Gemmill said: They're emboldened but they don't have the numbers. The stupid cunts are about to find out that bulldog spirit can't overcome maths. Nobody's got the numbers for anything. No deal is still the legal default and it is difficult to stop it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewerk 30266 Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 Just now, Renton said: Nobody's got the numbers for anything. No deal is still the legal default and it is difficult to stop it. The ERG aren't no dealers though. Maybe about 30 of them are but certainly not all. As we saw with MV2, several of them switched to backing May's deal rather than accept no deal, I think there will be even more for MV3. Not enough but a significant number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renton 21306 Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 2 minutes ago, Gemmill said: We don't have to finalise the agreement. We need to indicate enough of a change in tack to get more time. The 3 weeks then becomes 9 months or whatever, and all of this becomes much more negotiable without her fucking stupid red lines. Okay. Fingers crossed on your and Rayvin analysis being correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christmas Tree 4689 Posted March 22, 2019 Author Share Posted March 22, 2019 Not a hope in hell of no deal. Most likely outcome is a limp compromise that suits neither leavers or remainers. Whatever Parliament decides should be put back to a PV v Remain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rayvin 5176 Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 (edited) Edited March 22, 2019 by Rayvin Embed tweet - Tom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ayatollah Hermione 13794 Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 That’s one way to arrive at a definite conclusion: offer up seven of them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gemmill 44392 Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 8 minutes ago, Ayatollah Hermione said: That’s one way to arrive at a definite conclusion: offer up seven of them. Aye. These fucking people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gemmill 44392 Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 ERG lot are raging about the indicative votes already. Can't wait to see Mark Francois on the telly this weekend looking like a constipated Kinky John. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renton 21306 Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 38 minutes ago, Ayatollah Hermione said: That’s one way to arrive at a definite conclusion: offer up seven of them. Presumably as they are not mutually exclusive each MP will have a binary vote on each of them? Then maybe one will get a majority. I'd vote for 2, 3, and 5. The fact the ERG are gammoning is a good sign I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Gloom 21812 Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 i never thought we'd be allowed to sleepwalk over the cliff edge but this is the first week i can remember people at work, big brains who cover brexit day in day out, starting to talk about no deal as a real possibility rather than just a negation tactic. a lot of people close to the situation seem to think may might have flipped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monkeys Fist 42066 Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 1 hour ago, Christmas Tree said: Not a hope in hell of no deal. Most likely outcome is a limp compromise that suits neither leavers or remainers. Whatever Parliament decides should be put back to a PV v Remain. If you were given a 2nd chance to vote, would you go Leave or change to Remain, now that you are aware of the omnishambles Leaving entails? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Gloom 21812 Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 1 hour ago, Christmas Tree said: Not a hope in hell of no deal. Most likely outcome is a limp compromise that suits neither leavers or remainers. Whatever Parliament decides should be put back to a PV v Remain. that's quite a change in position. do you concede now that we're better off remaining after all? weren't you just saying no deal would be BAU? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christmas Tree 4689 Posted March 22, 2019 Author Share Posted March 22, 2019 7 minutes ago, Monkeys Fist said: If you were given a 2nd chance to vote, would you go Leave or change to Remain, now that you are aware of the omnishambles Leaving entails? Remain of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christmas Tree 4689 Posted March 22, 2019 Author Share Posted March 22, 2019 5 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said: that's quite a change in position. do you concede now that we're better off remaining after all? weren't you just saying no deal would be BAU? I said exactly the same last year. I’d still prefer to leave but there’s no point if we are going to end up with a fudge that isn’t “leaving” and isn’t remaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monkeys Fist 42066 Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 4 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said: Remain of course Of course… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewerk 30266 Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 34 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said: I said exactly the same last year. I’d still prefer to leave but there’s no point if we are going to end up with a fudge that isn’t “leaving” and isn’t remaining. But of course your fantasy Brexit isn’t available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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