Europe --- In or Out

[ewerk 30598]

There won't be any new checks though. The current livestock checks will simply increase in number and everything else is a matter of barcoding, which could be spun as not being an actual check.

Whether the DUP can swallow it or not remains to be seen. As someone who has lived with them my entire life I can assure you that when they dig their heels in it's very hard to get them turned. 

If they vote down the budget then surely there's no option but a GE? Which will almost certainly mean that they will be have their little taste of power taken away.

[Isegrim 9772]

The thing is that most suppliers are multinational and most often supplying various companies. It wouldn’t make much sense to outsource major factories to the uk where they might be restricted to the uk market.

 

I am saying this living close to Stuttgart where a huge amount of suppliers are based or have major sites.

[Renton 21615]

12 minutes ago, ewerk said:

There won't be any new checks though. The current livestock checks will simply increase in number and everything else is a matter of barcoding, which could be spun as not being an actual check.

Whether the DUP can swallow it or not remains to be seen. As someone who has lived with them my entire life I can assure you that when they dig their heels in it's very hard to get them turned. 

If they vote down the budget then surely there's no option but a GE? Which will almost certainly mean that they will be have their little taste of power taken away.

Not just livestock, also food of animal origin (cheese etc). And livestock going from 10% to 100% checks. Again, if we get a flaccid Brexit mayb3 this isn't an issue but who knows? 

 

I just get the feeling the EU want rid of us now asap with minimal disruption. I think they will benefit in the long term. 

[Christmas Tree 4725]

9 hours ago, ewerk said:

Nothing is agreed until Arlene agrees.

 

Time to call Arlenes bluff 

[Christmas Tree 4725]

56 minutes ago, ewerk said:

There won't be any new checks though. The current livestock checks will simply increase in number and everything else is a matter of barcoding, which could be spun as not being an actual check.

Whether the DUP can swallow it or not remains to be seen. As someone who has lived with them my entire life I can assure you that when they dig their heels in it's very hard to get them turned. 

If they vote down the budget then surely there's no option but a GE? Which will almost certainly mean that they will be have their little taste of power taken away.

 

Tories are not going to vote for a GE

[Christmas Tree 4725]

50 minutes ago, Isegrim said:

The thing is that most suppliers are multinational and most often supplying various companies. It wouldn’t make much sense to outsource major factories to the uk where they might be restricted to the uk market.

 

I am saying this living close to Stuttgart where a huge amount of suppliers are based or have major sites.

 

Not true. Many suppliers have already set up around Nissan and happily supply U.K. market. 

[ewerk 30598]

2 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

Tories are not going to vote for a GE

They don’t have to. May would pretty much compelled to if the government can’t get their budget passed.

[Christmas Tree 4725]

1 minute ago, ewerk said:

They don’t have to. May would pretty much compelled to if the government can’t get their budget passed.

 

They do, otherwise it’s impossible!

 

A PM can’t grant a GE

[Isegrim 9772]

26 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

Not true. Many suppliers have already set up around Nissan and happily supply U.K. market. 

I never denied this. Of course there are a lot of companies within the supply chain who are based araound Sunderland mainly to serve Nissan. But it is not about them but those who are operating from elsewhere and who are causing this JiT kerfuffle who afaik are rather reluctant at the moment to set up new businesses in the UK.

[Christmas Tree 4725]

5 minutes ago, Isegrim said:

I never denied this. Of course there are a lot of companies within the supply chain who are based araound Sunderland mainly to serve Nissan. But it is not about them but those who are operating from elsewhere and who are causing this JiT kerfuffle who afaik are rather reluctant at the moment to set up new businesses in the UK.

 

Im sure there are some that won’t or that it is not cost effective, EG a lot of the tech parts arrive from Asia, but many others have been encouraged (in the same way Thatcher encouraged Nissan), to set up here. This is why the multi million pound park is under construction and why many more jobs will be created post Brexit. 

 

It has to be crystal clear to most most people that a deal will be done and tarrif free trade will continue. Any JIT problems will be quickly ironed out.

[ewerk 30598]

41 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

They do, otherwise it’s impossible!

 

A PM can’t grant a GE

The government would be unable to govern. It would almost certainly mean a vote of no confidence being introduced and passed.

[Christmas Tree 4725]

1 hour ago, ewerk said:

The government would be unable to govern. It would almost certainly mean a vote of no confidence being introduced and passed.

 

No matter what happens, you are not going to get the majority of the Tories voting for a GE

 

Yiu need about 100 Tory MP’s to vote for an election.

Edited October 10, 2018 by Christmas Tree

[Dr Gloom 21915]

If May doesn’t roll over and keep us in the SM and CU, it’s either a second referendum or a general election. There’s no way we’re crashing out without a deal.

[Renton 21615]

2 hours ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

Im sure there are some that won’t or that it is not cost effective, EG a lot of the tech parts arrive from Asia, but many others have been encouraged (in the same way Thatcher encouraged Nissan), to set up here. This is why the multi million pound park is under construction and why many more jobs will be created post Brexit. 

 

It has to be crystal clear to most most people that a deal will be done and tarrif free trade will continue. Any JIT problems will be quickly ironed out.

 

Nissan fits 5 million parts a day and most of that (85% according to something i heard on the radio) is from abroad, mainly EU. Do you honestly think these supply chains can be fixed easier than just moving the whole operation to the point of sale? And if what you say is true, why is nobody in industry saying it? Can you evidence it?

[ewerk 30598]

2 hours ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

No matter what happens, you are not going to get the majority of the Tories voting for a GE

 

Yiu need about 100 Tory MP’s to vote for an election.

Ah right, so you think we’ll soldier on with a government that can’t pass a budget?

[PaddockLad 17252]

 

 

[ewerk 30598]

Except £365m of the bribe is due in the next budget. The DUP is literally shooting themselves in the foot.

[Kevin Carr's Gloves 3892]

1 hour ago, ewerk said:

Except £365m of the bribe is due in the next budget. The DUP is literally shooting themselves in the knee.

FYP

 

[Meenzer 15524]

Lots of interesting stuff in here, I thought: https://www.lrb.co.uk/v40/n19/james-meek/brexit-and-myths-of-englishness

[Alex 35077]

9 minutes ago, Meenzer said:

Lots of interesting stuff in here, I thought: https://www.lrb.co.uk/v40/n19/james-meek/brexit-and-myths-of-englishness

Brilliantly articulated piece

[ewerk 30598]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/brexit-panic-has-started-on-the-continent-now-we-can-drive-a-hard-bargain-m5mrzzxg3

His complete lack of shame is interesting if not surprising. The man who spent two years as Brexit Secretary having a go at No.10 for language in the December report that he himself agreed to. He then laments that there has not been enough progress made in outlining the future trade relationship. He was literally the man in charge of all of this up until a few months ago. Brexiters’ ability to twist very recent history is disturbing.

[Christmas Tree 4725]

23 minutes ago, ewerk said:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/brexit-panic-has-started-on-the-continent-now-we-can-drive-a-hard-bargain-m5mrzzxg3

His complete lack of shame is interesting if not surprising. The man who spent two years as Brexit Secretary having a go at No.10 for language in the December report that he himself agreed to. He then laments that there has not been enough progress made in outlining the future trade relationship. He was literally the man in charge of all of this up until a few months ago. Brexiters’ ability to twist very recent history is disturbing.

 

I think in fairness to him, he has been fairly consistent from day one that the negogiations were set up in the wrong order and that the backstop was a mistake. He was also (if you remember), pretty vocal within days of the December agreement, about how meaningless the backstop was. He has simply been played by May who seems to have run out of road.

 

 

[Sonatine 11374]

 

[ewerk 30598]

1 hour ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

I think in fairness to him, he has been fairly consistent from day one that the negogiations were set up in the wrong order and that the backstop was a mistake. He was also (if you remember), pretty vocal within days of the December agreement, about how meaningless the backstop was. He has simply been played by May who seems to have run out of road.

 

 

 I think anyone who gets played by someone as utterly woeful as May should retire from public life immediately.

[ewerk 30598]

1 hour ago, Sonatine said:

 

If it comes to a public vote then remain should put their entire budget into TV and online videos comparing what the leavers were saying before and where we’re at now.