Europe --- In or Out

[Renton 21295]

13 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

Of course a deal is still on. It’s going to go down the wire and then all sorted out at a dramatic last summit.

 

Yeah, sure you are right. After all, you have been so far.

 

[Dr Gloom 21812]

I reckon we’ll get a deal too. It’ll be a humiliating climb down for May and we’ll remain in the SM and CU. 

[ewerk 30262]

Or you’ll have to give up NI. Which I’m still unsure about.

[Renton 21295]

2 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:

I reckon we’ll get a deal too. It’ll be a humiliating climb down for May and we’ll remain in the SM and CU. 

I always thought that. But after last week? Really, i can't see it. 

[Dr Gloom 21812]

She’s playing a high stakes game of chicken but. It’ll ultimately come down to the fact we have a lot more to lose than the EU.

[ewerk 30262]

So Labour’s big vote at conference on a people’s vote has become a vote on ‘keeping all options on the table’. It’s a fucking pathetic fudge.

[Rayvin 5176]

I agree. Sick of McDonnell threatening us with the rise of UKIP as if they realistically stand any chance.

 

I'm going to terminate my membership, this continuous lying is not acceptable.

[ewerk 30262]

My first instinct was a cancel my membership but I think I'll hold off for now to see how this plays out. It is a complete betrayal of the Corbyn nonsense that he will take his lead from the membership.

[Billy Whitehurst 885]

I cancelled my membership this morning. I’ve been holding off from doing so for quite some time but last night’s fudge was the final straw. Corbyn and McDonnell are fucking toxic.

[NJS 4371]

Thing is people see a second vote as a panacea. 

 

If remain is an option and wins I'm sure a lot of the 17m leavers will say fair enough a mistake has been sorted but a hell of a lot will be seriously pissed off - I think people dismiss this too easily. 

 

What if leave wins? - maybe unlikely but another divisive campaign could see it happen - especially if there are either 3 shit choices or a simple remain/leave re-run. 

 

 

[ewerk 30262]

This threat of 17m people being seriously pissed off isn't a major concern for me. Of those 17m the vast majority aren't massively committed. We shouldn't fuck up our country because it might annoy them. I can understand their frustration if Brexit is overturned by parliament but if it is overturned by a plebiscite then they can't complain. If they win a second time then fair enough, the country deserves to go to the dogs.

[NJS 4371]

Don't get me wrong, I do think the vast majority are thick, ignorant misled or now dead but I think it will cause a lot of problems if they feel ignored. 

 

I agree with Renton (:)) that the best we can hope for is some Norway type deal that "fools" enough of them to keep them sort of happy. Not sure a second vote is needed for that and it won't happen without an election anyway (a second vote that is). 

Edited September 24, 2018 by NJS

[Renton 21295]

Norway is such an obvious safe haven. It does fulfil the vote which was only to leave or remain in the EU. It was also championed by many prominent leavers. It would be economically acceptable. And it would remove us from the political structures which frankly I think is highly desirable, for the sake of the EU, if not us. It would be acceptable to most people. It would also give us time to reflect as a country what we want. In a decade, we could rejoin or drift further away.

 

May lied by saying it would keep us in the CU. It wouldn't, and NI could get special status once the government is not dependent on the DUP.

 

As for FoM, that could be controlled much more effectively if the will is there. We'd lose some say on regulatory standards but we'd be a powerful lobbyist and frankly who gives a fuck. We'd retain the important aspects of sovereignty.

 

I'm not entirely sure if the present EFTA members would want us mind. And we're running out of time, although if we get the transition deal done we may be Okay.

 

Not going to happen one, but still.

[Rayvin 5176]

3 hours ago, NJS said:

Thing is people see a second vote as a panacea. 

 

If remain is an option and wins I'm sure a lot of the 17m leavers will say fair enough a mistake has been sorted but a hell of a lot will be seriously pissed off - I think people dismiss this too easily. 

 

What if leave wins? - maybe unlikely but another divisive campaign could see it happen - especially if there are either 3 shit choices or a simple remain/leave re-run. 

 

 

 

I don't see it as a solution to anything tbh, it's just a better playing field in which to try and thrash everything out than 'No Deal' would be. We're far better able to put effort into resolving society's problems and concerns from inside the EU. If we stay, and a lot of leavers are pissed off... I mean what are they actually going to do about it? If it's following a second referendum then as ewerk says, they can't really make any criticisms about democratic will, etc.

 

If they all run off and join UKIP it won't be the end of the world. Sure they might win a few seats here and there but realistically, they're not going win power - and a party that staggeringly incompetent wouldn't be able to keep them over the long term anyway.

[NJS 4371]

It's not just ukip though - a lot would support the tories if they say promise to leave under Rees-Mogg. 

[ewerk 30262]

So what? They’re going to vote for UKIP or the Tories anyway. You can’t just let them win because they’re shouting the loudest.

[Rayvin 5176]

12 minutes ago, NJS said:

It's not just ukip though - a lot would support the tories if they say promise to leave under Rees-Mogg. 

 

That's assuming Mogg gets in though - his stock is high right now because we're literally immersed in Brexit. If that gets put to bed with a Remain outcome, are the Tories really going to allow it to become a focal point for the party once again by getting Mogg in as PM and living or dying by having what would ultimately become yet another referendum on EU membership?

 

If you mean that we get a GE and May goes, Mogg comes in pre-referendum then ok, it's a more credible threat - but one that's splitting the Leavers right down the middle concerning going for UKIP or the Tories. The less intelligent ones go for UKIP, the slightly higher brow ones go for the Tories, and they end up stealing votes off each other. If Labour goes Remain, I don't think there's any realistic prospect of anyone giving votes to the Lib Dems in such a way as to split the Remain vote.

Edited September 24, 2018 by Rayvin

[Christmas Tree 4687]

8 minutes ago, ewerk said:

You can’t just let them win because they’re shouting the loudest.

 

Or winning referendums

[Rayvin 5176]

Just now, Christmas Tree said:

 

Or winning referendums

 

Almost no one won that referendum, as evidenced by the fact that literally no one predicted we would get what we are getting, and that almost no one seems to be happy about it.

[ewerk 30262]

CT knew.

[NJS 4371]

44 minutes ago, ewerk said:

So what? They’re going to vote for UKIP or the Tories anyway. You can’t just let them win because they’re shouting the loudest.

The worry would be "Labour" voters who feel that strong about leaving they'd vote for whoever could win their constituency - in marginals obviously. 

[Anorthernsoul 1221]

What the people who voted for Brexit forgot was that the Tory party would be in charge of negotiating the deal, a Tory party that couldn't negotiate their way through a fucking word search.

[Rayvin 5176]

7 minutes ago, Anorthernsoul said:

What the people who voted for Brexit forgot was that the Tory party would be in charge of negotiating the deal, a Tory party that couldn't negotiate their way through a fucking word search.

 

Not to parrot CT, but I feel Labour would have struggled also. It's a nigh on impossible issue thanks to Ireland, and it's hardly like we have any standout politicians kicking around these days who could possibly have 'charisma'd' it through.

 

8 minutes ago, NJS said:

The worry would be "Labour" voters who feel that strong about leaving they'd vote for whoever could win their constituency - in marginals obviously. 

 

Most Labour voters back Remain though. And the Indy seems to think that about 100 constituencies that voted Leave would now go Remain.

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-polling-leave-remain-voters-westminster-constituencies-final-say-second-referendum-a8488001.html

[Anorthernsoul 1221]

I may be wrong but even though it was such as big issue I can't remember Ireland ever being mentioned in the run up to the vote, from either side of the fence. 

[Rayvin 5176]

7 minutes ago, Anorthernsoul said:

I may be wrong but even though it was such as big issue I can't remember Ireland ever being mentioned in the run up to the vote, from either side of the fence. 

 

I can't either but I'm sure either Renton or ewerk have said that it was.

 

So much info around at the time i guess it passed us by.