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Europe --- In or Out


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It appears she’s already run most of this by Angela.

 

i think only hard brexiteers and hard remainers will be disappointed this morning.

 

Quite telling that’s shes also publicly reinstated collective cabinet is fully up and running again. 

 

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1 hour ago, ewerk said:

I’m not sure that the Brexiteers in the cabinet will accept much further movement to a soft Brexit. May will be hoping that by that point she’ll have kicked the can so far down the road that there’s nothing she can do about. It’s impossible for her now to lead the Tories in a 2022 election.

The main problems with the deal in my view is whether the EU will accept a third country collecting tariffs on their behalf, whether they’ll allow cherry picking of the SM and how much oversight will the ECJ have in all this.

There’s still a long way to go and Theresa May still has to move on her red lines before she’s home and hosed.

 

The EU categorically won't accept any of that. So it's a slow nudge, nudge into Norway plus, trying not to lose face or have outright rebellion with the loonys. Give it a different name. The boiling frog in other words. 

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Fuck.

 

If she achieves that then she's done basically everything she wanted. And I'm tempted to say that every time I've said something like "the government must surely have a compromise plan they are confident will work because there is no way they'd sleepwalk into no deal or full remain", i was right :(

 

This sucks. I'm going to miss the freedom to move and live around Europe. Fucking Tories.

Edited by Rayvin
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5 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

Fuck.

 

If she achieves that then she's done basically everything she wanted. And I'm tempted to say that every time I've said something like "the government must surely have a compromise plan they are confident will work because there is no way they'd sleepwalk into no detail or full remain", i was right :(

 

This sucks. I'm going to miss the freedom to move and live around Europe. Fucking Tories.

 

The EU won't accept it though. It's just more fudge cake. Barnier made it completely clear yesterday the integrity of the single market will not be threatened. So did Macron. I think the can has just been kicked into October, where it will be vetoed by several states (as QMV wouldn't suffice). I don't know what May's ultimate intentions are. Are they to have a soft Brexit and protect our economy? Or is this a ploy to say "I tried" and to head us to the cliff? My head has to say it's the former but I admit I am not clear or confident about this. Most likely is she simply doesn't know what she is doing and is clinging to power for her own ends. 

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29 minutes ago, Renton said:

It would be funny if it weren't so tragic that whilst May has tried to reach agreement with her cabinet, she has forgotten who really matter in this, the EU.

 

:lol: Surely you agree there was a reason she went and discussed this with Angela the previous day?

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Mrs May strikes me as the CoL’s place woman, that’s why she’s still there and that’s why it all points to a can kicking soft Brexit. Am not sure what the Brexit loonies could or would do should that be the case. Get rid of her?  There’s no way a parliamentary Tory party which largely doesn’t want Brexit would vote for any of the loonie fuckers as leader.  Oh and I thought this was quite err... “illuminating” yet also utterly meaningless...Thatcher and Reagan started letting the corporates basically run the world 40 years ago but this prick hasn’t noticed yet...

 

 

https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/the-wound-of-this-brexit-betrayal-will-never-heal/#disqus_thread

 

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22 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

:lol: Surely you agree there was a reason she went and discussed this with Angela the previous day?

 

We have no idea what was said at that meeting. But Merkel is not the EU's negotiator and there are 26 other countries involved, each which will have a veto. Macron made his thoughts public last week.

What we do know is that Barnier, Tusk, and Junker et al. have been entirely consistent about the EU's own red lines. They haven't budged and will not budge because they absolutely cannot. Meanwhile, like a boiling frog, May has gradually been erasing her own red lines. Either she will erase them entirely and we will get Norway, or she won't, and we'll crash.

 

Ateod it's pointless discussing this with you tubs. You just believe any old shit May throws up, despite all the evidence to the contrary she is talking out of her arse. To really understand the state of play, you need to do two things. First, you need to actually understand what the single market and customs union are, and how they work. You clearly don't. Second, you have to see things from the perspective of the EU. There are some brilliant sources to do this, because, unlike the UK, the EU has been absolutely transparent in their thinking. This though has been completely ignored by our legacy media and most our politicians. 

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Ian Dunt has summed up the position brilliantly imo.

 

Quote

This is how Brexit has worked: They talked and talked and talked and at the end of it nothing had changed.

 

The EU got up the morning after the vote and had a position pretty much like the one it has now. If you want Option A - lots of trade - you have to sign up to lots of alignment. If you want Option B - lots of independence - you have to accept loss of trade.

The counter-strategy of Brexiters around the Cabinet table could have involved preparation, organisation and the construction of viable alternatives. Instead, it has been to talk. They have talked incessantly, about the will of the people, about how 'no deal is better than a bad deal', about how 'they need us more than we need them', about imaginary WTO rules and trade deals with the US. But they have not done anything at all.

 

The crunch-time Chequers meeting sees them finally presented with the May-approved compromise position, combining some sort of customs partnership with tech solutions on the Irish border and a goods-only single market alignment deal.

 

It is all completely bananas. It is bananas in its priorities, given Britain is a services economy. It is bananas in its proposals, because the EU is not about to hand a foreign power responsibility for its external border. And it is bananas in its proposition, because the tech solutions you'd be using for regulatory alignment do not exist even in the fevered imagination of these sixth-form nationalist poets.

 

It is simply an insane thing for a British government to be suggesting. The speed of decline in the quality of governance of this country - in terms of objective, rhetoric and strategy - has been truly humbling.

 

Cabinet Brexiters are struggling to counter May because they have no plan. They are all talk and no trousers. What alternatives do they propose? There are none. What customs system do they have apart from 'don't check the lorries'? There is none. What position do they have on the balance between alignment and trade? Nothing. They have no contribution at all except for their own preening self-indulgence. They have not engaged in any of the details of the debate, so they have nothing to contribute to it.

This has been the case since the start: the greatest weakness of Brexit is the character and quality of those who promote it. By avoiding detail they did not escape it. They put themselves at its mercy.

Now, two possible futures branch out ahead of us: one in which May can keep her Cabinet on-side and one in which she can't.

 

Let's imagine she can. She gets through the weekend with no Cabinet resignations. Boris Johnson and David Davis and Liam Fox and the other troublemakers swallow this compromise. If they've accepted this they will probably accept anything.

The next step will be talks with Europe. They will undoubtedly reject the plan - but first they will probably entertain it and treat it as the basis for discussion, if only to bolster the authority of a prime minister who is moving towards a rational position.

It should be an affront for patriots to see a British prime minister treated in this way, as if she was something to be managed and patronised rather than an equal partner to be respected. But we have no-one to blame but ourselves. The British government created an impossible negotiating posture set to an undeliverable timetable and tried to deliver it through the medium of hysterical nationalist psycho-babble. The loudest nationalists are always those who create the most appalling offences to decent patriotism. Their actions are for their own sense of insecurity, not for the country in any practical sense.

 

Anyway, that road only goes one way. The single market is indivisible. The EU will not allow another power to patrol its external border for it, in a manner which will surely result in lost revenue and broken regulations to no discernible benefit to itself. This leads to single market and customs union membership - the position May should have adopted at the start.

 

Pathway two sees the Cabinet fall apart, either immediately or in the near-future. What happens then? Perhaps May will go and be replaced by a Jacob Rees-Mogg type who'll deliver a no-deal Brexit. But the truth is, there is no parliament majority for no-deal. They can't get it through. If hard Brexiters take this to the wire, there is a good chance Brexit won't happen at all.

 

Whichever way they look, the hard Brexiters are seeing dead ends. Their tawdry dream is falling apart around them. They will blame everyone but themselves. They'll blame Europe or May or Remainers or the civil service or the media. But they should be more circumspect. Their current strategic weakness is a product of their own ineptitude. They are the authors of their own misfortune.

 

http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/07/06/week-in-review-wherever-brexiters-look-they-see-dead-ends

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Gemmill said:

The useless lazy cunt should have done this 18 months ago.

 

Where do we go from here? General election?

 

Unless Labour come out as anti Brexit then that will resolve nothing as far as I can make out. 

 

The EU won't accept May"s bullshit deal as it stands, she'll maybe won't replace him or the other two who resigned, she'll maybe continue negotiations herself, or appoint someone that will water things down even more, put up with the shellacking from the 1922 committee tonight and more subsequent cabinet resignations and a challenge to her leadership. There again, who the fuck knows? :lol:

 

 

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1922 don't trust Gove for precisely the sort of shit he pulled at the weekend. Gave the deal his full backing for his own ends rather than any sort of principle. The loonies will ensure either  half the cabinet walks or there is a leadership challenge or possibly both if that fucker is steering the ship. 

 

To think Cameron thought a vote on Europe would solve all the Tories problems with it :lol:

 

 

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