Europe --- In or Out

[Renton 21271]

10 minutes ago, ewerk said:

Any updates on exactly what I've said that is wrong, CT. I've said quite a bit so am willing to admit if I've made a mistake somewhere along the line.

I think CT's point is that the withdrawal agreement will be legally ratified (signed) autumn this year. Which I think is true technically. However, failure to honour it as it currently stands sees the UK falling out the EU without any deal, which isn't an option. This is because it would mean we would have no regulatory recognition in EU and several dozen other third party nations, trade would cease, planes couldn't fly etc.

 

So we have agreed to SM and CU in Ireland, which because the border cannot exist there or in the sea means we have agreed to it de facto for the whole UK. Brexiters should not be happy after yesterday. 

 

[Rayvin 5176]

1 minute ago, Renton said:

I think CT's point is that the withdrawal agreement will be legally ratified (signed) autumn this year. Which I think is true technically. However, failure to honour it as it currently stands sees the UK falling out the EU without any deal, which isn't an option. This is because it would mean we would have no regulatory recognition in EU and several dozen other third party nations, trade would cease, planes couldn't fly etc.

 

So we have agreed to SM and CU in Ireland, which because the border cannot exist there or in the sea means we have agreed to it de facto for the whole UK. Brexiters should not be happy after yesterday. 

 

 

Is that actually true though? Are we actually going to be in the single market? Will freedom of movement remain in NI (and therefore UK)?

[ewerk 30242]

5 minutes ago, Renton said:

I think CT's point is that the withdrawal agreement will be legally ratified (signed) autumn this year. Which I think is true technically. However, failure to honour it as it currently stands sees the UK falling out the EU without any deal, which isn't an option. This is because it would mean we would have no regulatory recognition in EU and several dozen other third party nations, trade would cease, planes couldn't fly etc.

And I haven't disagreed with him on that. I said that the phase one agreement would have to be translated into an agreed legal text before trade talks would begin. It's exactly what has happened yet for some reason he believes he's proven me wrong on something. As you say, the UK cannot renege on what has been agreed thus far without blowing up the entire negotiation and leaving us with no deal.

[Renton 21271]

5 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

 

Is that actually true though? Are we actually going to be in the single market? Will freedom of movement remain in NI (and therefore UK)?

 

It's just my logical train of thought. May has literally backed down over every issue. The EU have us over a barrel, not because of tariffs, because we need regulatory equivalence with them to keep borders friction free.

 

FOM will be a fudge. But incidentally, it's a fudge we already have but have chosen not to eat. 

[ewerk 30242]

5 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

 

Is that actually true though? Are we actually going to be in the single market? Will freedom of movement remain in NI (and therefore UK)?

In the absence of an alternative agreed solution Northern Ireland will remain in the SM and CU in everything possibly bar the name. If that happens then the UK can either agree to the same terms or effectively allow NI to maintain different rules to the rest of the UK which would mean customs and regulatory checks between NI and GB.

What the UK government is hoping for is an alternative to that being found between now and 2021. Given that there doesn't even appear to be any ideas for a workable solution that would be acceptable to the EU I think the backstop is likely to come into effect. 

[Renton 21271]

3 minutes ago, ewerk said:

And I haven't disagreed with him on that. I said that the phase one agreement would have to be translated into an agreed legal text before trade talks would begin. It's exactly what has happened yet for some reason he believes he's proven me wrong on something. As you say, the UK cannot renege on what has been agreed thus far without blowing up the entire negotiation and leaving us with no deal.

 

I agree. His position is we don't have to keep to phase one by going for no deal. Well yes, we can renege on it, but it would be economic Armageddon for the UK. In other words, we are bound to it now. It's great news. 

[Renton 21271]

Just now, ewerk said:

In the absence of an alternative agreed solution Northern Ireland will remain in the SM and CU in everything possibly bar the name. If that happens then the UK can either agree to the same terms or effectively allow NI to maintain different rules to the rest of the UK which would mean customs and regulatory checks between NI and GB.

What the UK government is hoping for is an alternative to that being found between now and 2021. Given that there doesn't even appear to be any ideas for a workable solution that would be acceptable to the EU I think the backstop is likely to come into effect. 

Yep. No technology in the world can detect what's in your boot. The backstop is guaranteed imo. Barnier knows this, hence the smiles.

[Dr Gloom 21811]

as i predicted several pages back, we are going to end up with the softest of soft brexits. the result: a divided country and huge economic costs and a final deal not dissimilar to what we had prior to the brexit vote, just a bit more shit.

[ewerk 30242]

10 minutes ago, Renton said:

Yep. No technology in the world can detect what's in your boot. The backstop is guaranteed imo. Barnier knows this, hence the smiles.

Aye, it's either that or the whole UK remains in the CU and SM. The decision will be made based on whatever is the least politically catastrophic option for the government. 

Edited March 20, 2018 by ewerk

[Renton 21271]

9 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:

as i predicted several pages back, we are going to end up with the softest of soft brexits. the result: a divided country and huge economic costs and a final deal not dissimilar to what we had prior to the brexit vote, just a bit more shit.

 

And ironically, less sovereignty. Tbh we deserve it. Going to fun watching the likes of JRM fucking explode in indignation. Although with the Cambridge Analytica news, he might crawl back under his stone.

[Christmas Tree 4685]

50 minutes ago, ewerk said:

Any updates on exactly what I've said that is wrong, CT. I've said quite a bit so am willing to admit if I've made a mistake somewhere along the line.

 

Youve been adamant since December that there would be no phase 2 talks until the NI issue became legislation / legally binding.

 

Ive been telling you since December that you were wrong and that it would only ever become legally binding as part of the withdrawal agreement in October.

 

I was right, you were wrong. Get over it, your credibility will recover.

[Christmas Tree 4685]

I think you’ve all lost the plot if you think we are staying in the SM, CU, and having to accept free movement etc

 

As I said a year or two ago, this will all be tied up in a nice little associate agreement.

 

Nice to hear the EU confirm yesterday that we can now start negotiating and signing our free trade deals with the rest of the world.

[Renton 21271]

7 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said:

I think you’ve all lost the plot if you think we are staying in the SM, CU, and having to accept free movement etc

 

As I said a year or two ago, this will all be tied up in a nice little associate agreement.

 

Nice to hear the EU confirm yesterday that we can now start negotiating and signing our free trade deals with the rest of the world.

 

I don't know how many times you've been asked how border issues at Dover or NI are going to be resolved. Nobody has provided a solution, because there isn't one. May has stepped back fr9m her red lines one by one and will keep doing so. We're definitely headed for BRINO imo. 

[ewerk 30242]

14 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

Youve been adamant since December that there would be no phase 2 talks until the NI issue became legislation / legally binding.

 

Ive been telling you since December that you were wrong and that it would only ever become legally binding as part of the withdrawal agreement in October.

 

I was right, you were wrong. Get over it, your credibility will recover.

It was literally yesterday that the UK agreed the legislation with the UK. Did you miss all that? I don't believe I ever said it would be legally binding. What I said was that the phase 1 agreement would have to agreed in legal form by both sides before we could proceed to trade talks. Feel free to quote me where I said otherwise.

[adios 717]

9 minutes ago, ewerk said:

It was literally yesterday that the UK agreed the legislation with the UK. 

1

I don't think they're even capable of that tbh.

[Christmas Tree 4685]

4 minutes ago, Renton said:

 

I don't know how many times you've been asked how border issues at Dover or NI are going to be resolved. Nobody has provided a solution, because there isn't one. May has stepped back fr9m her red lines one by one and will keep doing so. We're definitely headed for BRINO imo. 

 

We’re leaving the EU

We’re doing our own free trade deals

Freedom of movement ends

Vast payments to the EU end

We will make our own laws.

 

Not sure how that’s Brino.

[ewerk 30242]

And a big border up the Irish Sea?

[Renton 21271]

16 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

We’re leaving the EU In name only.

We’re doing our own free trade deals Nope, won't happen

Freedom of movement ends It will become more controlled within extant framework

Vast payments to the EU end Nope, although hardly vast anyway

We will make our own laws. Always have been able to. Some supranational law will remain ECJ (already confirmed BTW)

 

Not sure how that’s Brino.

 

That is exactly Brino. BTW, to add, the EU are humouring Fox. We can't be in CU and have independent FTAs. We can't be out of CU because that would require country of origin rules at irish border. So logically we have to stay in CU and accept EU FTAs. Which is great, because they are way better than we can negotiate ourselves. 

Edited March 20, 2018 by Renton

[Christmas Tree 4685]

30 minutes ago, ewerk said:

It was literally yesterday that the UK agreed the legislation with the UK. Did you miss all that? I don't believe I ever said it would be legally binding. What I said was that the phase 1 agreement would have to agreed in legal form by both sides before we could proceed to trade talks. Feel free to quote me where I said otherwise.

 

You just never understood the process.

 

From day 1, we have been discussing the legislation (withdrawal agreement) that was always going to be signed in October. I’ve told you this continually.

 

The negotiations for this were broken down into phase 1 and phase 2. 

 

You were here adamant that phase 2 wouldn’t start until phase 1 had become legislation. That was always impossible as nothing was ever going to become legislation til October.

 

All yesterday was was further progress on phase 2, notibly the transition having been agreed. There are still other things in phase 2 to agree and as always NOTHING IS AGREED TIL EVERYTHINGS AGREED.

 

In a nutshell, you thought phase 1 would have to become legislation before phase 2. I always knew it didn’t and that October was the date.

 

Can we move on

[Renton 21271]

1 minute ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

You just never understood the process.

 

From day 1, we have been discussing the legislation (withdrawal agreement) that was always going to be signed in October. I’ve told you this continually.

 

The negotiations for this were broken down into phase 1 and phase 2. 

 

You were here adamant that phase 2 wouldn’t start until phase 1 had become legislation. That was always impossible as nothing was ever going to become legislation til October.

 

All yesterday was was further progress on phase 2, notibly the transition having been agreed. There are still other things in phase 2 to agree and as always NOTHING IS AGREED TIL EVERYTHINGS AGREED.

 

In a nutshell, you thought phase 1 would have to become legislation before phase 2. I always knew it didn’t and that October was the date.

 

Can we move on

We've agreed to the NI backstop solution, and agreed there is no other solution. Agreed? Yes, let's move on. 

[Christmas Tree 4685]

10 minutes ago, Renton said:

 

That is exactly Brino. BTW, to add, the EU are humouring Fox. We can't be in CU and have independent FTAs. We can't be out of CU because that would require country of origin rules at irish border. So logically we have to stay in CU and accept EU FTAs. Which is great, because they are way better than we can negotiate ourselves. 

 

so it’s all a cunning plan.

 

Really, yesterday was a bad day for remainers. Basically NI border is basically being kicked into next year for a giant game of chicken. No deal is very much still alive and kicking.

[Christmas Tree 4685]

2 minutes ago, Renton said:

We've agreed to the NI backstop solution, and agreed there is no other solution. Agreed? Yes, let's move on. 

 

As we did in December ( nothing different, just restated / kicked down the line).

[Renton 21271]

Okay CT, look at it this way. We've agreed a transition deal where we are worse off than before. NI has indeed been kicked down the road again but the backstop has been agreed. The issue with NI will be EXACTLY the same in 2020, with backstop still in place. At that point, we are either in a soft Brexit Norway plus type of position, or the transition will need to be extended indefinitely. Exactly where EU want us, a de facto member of the EU with no say. Barnier has played a blinder. 

 

Only an idiot would suggest no deal is an option. Apart from destroying our economy overnight, it is the worst possible outcome for Ireland. As guarantors of the GFA, no deal is off the table for the UK. 

[Alex 34822]

9 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

so it’s all a cunning plan.

 

Really, yesterday was a bad day for remainers. Basically NI border is basically being kicked into next year for a giant game of chicken. No deal is very much still alive and kicking.

The inference being you think 'no deal' is good

[ewerk 30242]

10 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said:

In a nutshell, you thought phase 1 would have to become legislation before phase 2. I always knew it didn’t and that October was the date.

 

Can we move on

It has become legislation. That was the point of the agreement of the legal text. I did not say it would have effect in law or be legally binding before the withdrawal date. What I did say is that we would have legal agreement that the UK could not afford to walk away from. You said it was a fudge and we'd move the goal posts further down the line. I, and others, said that wouldn't be possible as we couldn't roll back on what we had agreed without the EU walking away from negotiations.

All that remains true.

Your assertion was that we wouldn't be held to any of what was agreed. You have been proven to be categorically wrong.