Europe --- In or Out

[Rayvin 5304]

 

Pre-planned flouncing, no less.

[Park Life 71]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/sep/06/swiss-eu-standoff-striking-similarities-uk-predicament

[Monkeys Fist 43098]

 

I'm just trying to understand his thinking, really.

So's he.

[Renton 22007]

He gets other people to his thinking doesn't he?

[Christmas Tree 4848]

He gets other people to his thinking doesn't he?

Eventually

[Christmas Tree 4848]

Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse have both scrapped their forecasts that the UK will slip into recession in the wake of the Brexit vote, as a slew of surprisingly decent economic data brightens the outlook for post-referendum Britain.

 

“The negative impact of the UK’s vote to leave the EU on growth in the UK and euro area appears to have been materially less than we expected in late June".

 

EXPERTS

[Rayvin 5304]

That's positive news, at least.

 

I'm not 100% sure that the vote itself was the concern though. I think my concerns have always been more to do with actually leaving the EU.

 

That said, clearly some people (and experts) thought we were in for a more significant downturn from the vote. That said CT, do you feel that you were better informed than the experts, or is this just incredibly fortunate?

Edited September 7, 2016 by Rayvin

[Dr Gloom 22182]

the picture will become clearer by the end of the month.

 

http://app.ft.com/cms/s/2e74b1a4-711c-11e6-a0c9-1365ce54b926.html

[Gemmill 46086]

Worth pointing out that they both reference the extraordinary measures taken by the BoE as key contributors to the not-as-bad-as-expected outcome. So it took a cut in rates, the term funding scheme and an extension to QE AND the promise of a further cut to avert recession.

 

Also worth pointing out that their revised forecasts are not as high as earlier forecasts before the Brexit vote. In other words, they downgraded immediately after the vote and have now upgraded slightly. But the new forecast isn't as high as it would have been without Brexit.

 

I can almost hear both of these messages sailing one either side of the conehead.

[Park Life 71]

We're gonna have access to the single market and katanga trade deals with big players. Germany and France are gonna feel sick.

[Meenzer 15732]

Worth pointing out that they both reference the extraordinary measures taken by the BoE as key contributors to the not-as-bad-as-expected outcome. So it took a cut in rates, the term funding scheme and an extension to QE AND the promise of a further cut to avert recession.

 

Also worth pointing out that their revised forecasts are not as high as earlier forecasts before the Brexit vote. In other words, they downgraded immediately after the vote and have now upgraded slightly. But the new forecast isn't as high as it would have been without Brexit.

 

BULLDOG SPIRIT TAKING BACK CONTROL INNIT

[Rayvin 5304]

Worth pointing out that they both reference the extraordinary measures taken by the BoE as key contributors to the not-as-bad-as-expected outcome. So it took a cut in rates, the term funding scheme and an extension to QE AND the promise of a further cut to avert recession.

 

Also worth pointing out that their revised forecasts are not as high as earlier forecasts before the Brexit vote. In other words, they downgraded immediately after the vote and have now upgraded slightly. But the new forecast isn't as high as it would have been without Brexit.

 

I can almost hear both of these messages sailing one either side of the conehead.

 

 

Another good post.

[Christmas Tree 4848]

That's positive news, at least.

 

I'm not 100% sure that the vote itself was the concern though. I think my concerns have always been more to do with actually leaving the EU.

 

That said, clearly some people (and experts) thought we were in for a more significant downturn from the vote. That said CT, do you feel that you were better informed than the experts, or is this just incredibly fortunate?

I think it's not a case of being better informed, I thinks it more a case of a lot of experts being led or part of the project fear campaign.

 

While the well educated remainers lost their shit after the vote leading to a mini shock, ( exhibit A - Dr Gloom), the working class leavers just carried on smoking fags, drinking beer and spending money. BAU.

 

As for leaving the EU itself, I'm still very confident that we'll agree a way forward that leaves us in a much better position as a country and an economy.

 

What I'm really looking forward to now is the Autumn statement to see what Hammond does with the reduced debt payments windfall of billions.

[Christmas Tree 4848]

the picture will become clearer by the end of the month.

 

http://app.ft.com/cms/s/2e74b1a4-711c-11e6-a0c9-1365ce54b926.html

You keep linking to stuff that we have to pay for to read.

[Christmas Tree 4848]

Worth pointing out that they both reference the extraordinary measures taken by the BoE as key contributors to the not-as-bad-as-expected outcome. So it took a cut in rates, the term funding scheme and an extension to QE AND the promise of a further cut to avert recession.

 

Also worth pointing out that their revised forecasts are not as high as earlier forecasts before the Brexit vote. In other words, they downgraded immediately after the vote and have now upgraded slightly. But the new forecast isn't as high as it would have been without Brexit.

 

I can almost hear both of these messages sailing one either side of the conehead.

Or as many in political circles have expressed, Carney also lost his shit and jumped in too quickly.

 

And would any of that have been needed or forecasts needed adjusting if the establishment had paused for a moment and considered the little man might win.

[Renton 22007]

What I'm really looking forward to now is the Autumn statement to see what Hammond does with the reduced debt payments windfall of billions.

What are you on about?

[Kevin Carr's Gloves 3982]

What are you on about?

 

About £3 an hour I believe.

[Renton 22007]

Or as many in political circles have expressed, Carney also lost his shit and jumped in too quickly.

 

And would any of that have been needed or forecasts needed adjusting if the establishment had paused for a moment and considered the little man might win.

Honestly, can't make head nor tail out of this either. Did you understand Gemmill's post, honestly?

[Meenzer 15732]

We wouldn't be having this slowdown if the economy had priced in a slowdown by slowing down a bit earlier. Simple.

[Alex 35601]

Honestly, can't make head nor tail out of this either. Did you understand Gemmill's post, honestly?

It's like trying to work out why any bothers engaging with him.

[Kevin Carr's Gloves 3982]

Now the Australians are taking the piss.

 

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/sep/07/pmqs-may-corbyn-statement-brexit-australia-dashes-hopes-of-quick-brexit-trade-deal-with-uk-politics-live

[Alex 35601]

Saw that on the news. It's almost like this shit isn't going to be easy to sort out in a hurry.

[Rayvin 5304]

We wouldn't be having this slowdown if the economy had priced in a slowdown by slowing down a bit earlier. Simple.

 

[Dr Gloom 22182]

You keep linking to stuff that we have to pay for to read.

 

sorry, i read the FT every day and this requires a subscription.

 

the piece says both the treasury and BoE will both have a close eye on economic surveys but won't come to conclusions about the direction of the economy until they have hard data on spending.

 

key takeways: 

 

- retail sales have held up but only account for about 30 per cent of household consumption. what economists want to know is whether consumers are still prepared to buy bigger things, like cars and homes. house price data and new car registrations (one of the first things to slow during an economic downturn) are out at the end of the month

 

- sterling plummeting has increased the cost of imported materials. by early October, there will be two months of industrial production data.

 

- our service sector accounts for nearly 80 per cent of the economy. It also contains some of the sectors, like financial services, that are expected to be most exposed by changes to our relationship with the EU.

official data are only available with a two-month lag so it will be the end of September until the picture there is clear

 

-  the first official figures on business investment, one of the most important data sets after the vote, won't be published until the end of November.

[Meenzer 15732]

tl;dr version - "oh good, several more months of this thread"