Europe --- In or Out

[Rayvin 5176]

So how confident are we that the deal will be shafted? I was reading around this morning and it does seem like confusion has broken out. If the deal falls then we're back to an extension but no closer to a referendum. Then we're on for a general election.

 

The thing is, it does feel that the public is getting hopelessly fed up of this and as much as I don't think there is much appetite for Brexit as a concept, the way the remain MPs are playing this is just supremely aggravating. They won't nail their colours to the mast of anything so all they can do is frustrate. They need to actually DO something.

[PaddockLad 17079]

 

Am getting the feeling Cummins may have known we’d reach this point all along....

 

 

[Gemmill 44393]

Bollocks, that bloke has been making fuck up after fuck up since Johnson got the job. If the past three months have shown anything, it's that Classic Dom is nowhere near as clever as he thinks he is. 

[ewerk 30266]

They’ll extend further for a second referendum but we’re not there yet on that issue.

[Gemmill 44393]

Thread... 

 

 

[Alex 34846]

What I can’t understand is people trusting Government when they’re so patently full of shit in terms of getting Brexit done etc. I mean, even now the likes of Raab are lying saying we’re still leaving on the 31st. Nothing any of the prominent leave politicians have promised has come to pass yet some people still believe them. I struggle to get my head round how thick people are 

[ewerk 30266]

33 minutes ago, Alex said:

What I can’t understand is people trusting Government when they’re so patently full of shit in terms of getting Brexit done etc. I mean, even now the likes of Raab are lying saying we’re still leaving on the 31st. Nothing any of the prominent leave politicians have promised has come to pass yet some people still believe them. I struggle to get my head round how thick people are 

It’s gone beyond facts now. It isn’t about what’s right or what’s good for the country. It’s about winning. It’s about identity politics. These people are leavers, that’s who they are. They don’t care about truth, decency or the long term future of our country. They just want to win regardless of what the ‘prize’ is.

[acrossthepond 867]

46 minutes ago, Alex said:

What I can’t understand is people trusting Government when they’re so patently full of shit in terms of getting Brexit done etc. I mean, even now the likes of Raab are lying saying we’re still leaving on the 31st. Nothing any of the prominent leave politicians have promised has come to pass yet some people still believe them. I struggle to get my head round how thick people are 

Same thing goes on here. Trump hasn't delivered on probably 75% of the bullshit he promised (I'm not even counting the stuff he never had any intention of doing, like the Muslim registry or throwing Hillary in jail.) Bring this up to one of his cultists? "The Democrats have been obstructing, it's all their fault, blah blah blah horseshit." Same play, different country. 

[PaddockLad 17079]

2 hours ago, Gemmill said:

Bollocks, that bloke has been making fuck up after fuck up since Johnson got the job. If the past three months have shown anything, it's that Classic Dom is nowhere near as clever as he thinks he is. 

 

Yeah you're right. 

 

Seems like (to me, a fairly uninformed observer)  that a general election delivering an overall majority for the Tories is all they need to get their Brexit through and thats been their sole aim since Johnson has become PM.  Any extension doesn't quite give them an open goal but it's a great opportunity. They've plainly "war gamed" all this and know what their options are every time the road seems blocked. Maybe I'm crediting Cummings with far too much here but they always seem to have their next move ready straight away. 

 

As far as I can make out theres just as much chance of a no deal Brexit now as there was when Johnson became leader either by design or default. The arch remainers even with the backing of the highest court in the land aren't winning this as we sit here 11 days from the next Brexit deadline. Obviously there's now another extension but that's equally another opportunity for no deal as it is for...what exactly?  A people's vote resolves nothing. It'll undoubtedly be legally binding this time but in reality it resolves nothing outside of Westminster.

[Rayvin 5176]

1 hour ago, ewerk said:

It’s gone beyond facts now. It isn’t about what’s right or what’s good for the country. It’s about winning. It’s about identity politics. These people are leavers, that’s who they are. They don’t care about truth, decency or the long term future of our country. They just want to win regardless of what the ‘prize’ is.

 

1 million times this. This is literally all we're fighting about now. It makes any intelligent discourse impossible.

[Isegrim 9733]

3 hours ago, Gemmill said:

Bollocks, that bloke has been making fuck up after fuck up since Johnson got the job. If the past three months have shown anything, it's that Classic Dom is nowhere near as clever as he thinks he is. 

Being arrogantly stupid is the new art of being clever tbh. We are back to the times where the likes of Goebbels ... err .. Cummings ... err ... Trump ...err ... Orban ... err ... Garbage .. err ... Kascinsky ... err .. Le Pen. ... err ... Salvini ... err ... Goebbeld are just saying and doing what people do want them to. Ethics and morals are for stupid do-gooders .

[Isegrim 9733]

[Rayvin 5176]

1 hour ago, PaddockLad said:

 

Yeah you're right. 

 

Seems like (to me, a fairly uninformed observer)  that a general election delivering an overall majority for the Tories is all they need to get their Brexit through and thats been their sole aim since Johnson has become PM.  Any extension doesn't quite give them an open goal but it's a great opportunity. They've plainly "war gamed" all this and know what their options are every time the road seems blocked. Maybe I'm crediting Cummings with far too much here but they always seem to have their next move ready straight away. 

 

As far as I can make out theres just as much chance of a no deal Brexit now as there was when Johnson became leader either by design or default. The arch remainers even with the backing of the highest court in the land aren't winning this as we sit here 11 days from the next Brexit deadline. Obviously there's now another extension but that's equally another opportunity for no deal as it is for...what exactly?  A people's vote resolves nothing. It'll undoubtedly be legally binding this time but in reality it resolves nothing outside of Westminster.

 

Why doesn't it resolve anything? I think it resolves everything, no matter which way it goes.

[ewerk 30266]

10 hours ago, PaddockLad said:

 

Yeah you're right. 

 

Seems like (to me, a fairly uninformed observer)  that a general election delivering an overall majority for the Tories is all they need to get their Brexit through and thats been their sole aim since Johnson has become PM.  Any extension doesn't quite give them an open goal but it's a great opportunity. They've plainly "war gamed" all this and know what their options are every time the road seems blocked. Maybe I'm crediting Cummings with far too much here but they always seem to have their next move ready straight away. 

 

As far as I can make out theres just as much chance of a no deal Brexit now as there was when Johnson became leader either by design or default. The arch remainers even with the backing of the highest court in the land aren't winning this as we sit here 11 days from the next Brexit deadline. Obviously there's now another extension but that's equally another opportunity for no deal as it is for...what exactly?  A people's vote resolves nothing. It'll undoubtedly be legally binding this time but in reality it resolves nothing outside of Westminster.

 

A general election now is not Johnson's best case scenario. Both Cummings and him know that if they go to the polls today then the Brexit Party vote will do them serious damage. They'd much rather see us leave on a deal at the end of the month and then call an election.

Regarding no deal, it's now highly unlikely. Parliament has done a good job in forcing Johnson to request the extension and it's almost certain that the EU will grant it. This should be a moment of total humiliation for him but somehow the press don't see it that way.

A Peoples' Vote pretty much solves everything. If Leave win then that's it done. No more remain campaigns, we leave on the terms offered on the card. If remain wins then the issue is put to bed for a generation. There will of course be a hardcore on both sides who'll continue to fight like a Japanese solider but it will no longer have a monopoly on parliament and the media's time.

[PaddockLad 17079]

Cheers @ewerk 

 

I think I still see things differently. But I can see what you're saying.

 

The speaker isn't going to allow another vote on Johnson's deal today. Apparently theres some precedent from the 1600s that stops it. 

 

 

 

[ewerk 30266]

He did the same thing with Theresa May's deal. It means that the government can't keep bringing the same motion/bill in front of parliament in order to badger them into voting for it.

If he gets an extension and the domestic legislation to implement the agreement gets through parliament then it could be argued that circumstances have changed so he'd probably be allowed to bring it back then but he's basically trying to get MPs to vote on the exact same thing they amended on Saturday.

Edited October 21, 2019 by ewerk

[NJS 4371]

I've been thinking that either way there's going to be people left bitter and resentful about this for years to come - "fighting like a Japanese soldier" is a great metaphor. 

[ewerk 30266]

DUP won't back a customs union. Of course not, that would be too sensible. Sounds like they haven't given up hope of getting the deal amended to give them a veto. If so then they've once again misjudged the situation.

[NJS 4371]

Isn't a permanent CU a good thing for NI failing anything better? 

[ewerk 30266]

Well it's pretty much what we already have under the withdrawal agreement.

It would be a result for the DUP because it would ensure that there would be no customs border in the Irish Sea.

But they're too stubborn to admit that.

[Gemmill 44393]

52 minutes ago, ewerk said:

DUP won't back a customs union. Of course not, that would be too sensible. Sounds like they haven't given up hope of getting the deal amended to give them a veto. If so then they've once again misjudged the situation.

There's some suggestion on Twitter that Shannon has misunderstood the question and thought they were talking about a customs border in the sea, rather than a customs union.

[ewerk 30266]

Jim Shannon does misunderstand an awful lot of stuff tbf.

[Gemmill 44393]

It would explain why he seemed so vehemently opposed to it as well. 

[Anorthernsoul 1221]

[ewerk 30266]

On 10/19/2019 at 09:59, Rayvin said:

 

Whenever it is, why will anyone change their mind? What new information comes to light? It's more time for political machinations for sure, but if there was ever a time for the remain side to pull out all the stops it was the past few days - and all we have is some ingenuity from a Tory backbencher. That's the full might of remain brought to bear on this issue.

Stephen Barclay has today admitted that if a business wants to sell goods to GB under this deal then we'll have to complete a customs declaration. That's fucking outrageous and yet no one brought this up before Saturday's vote. Trust me, there's a lot more hidden in this deal and the legislation that they don't want us to know.