Europe --- In or Out

[Gemmill 44853]

CT's transition is complete. 

[Alex 35077]

Aye. He used to be short and fat  

[Rayvin 5219]

It really sounds like any vote on Johnson's deal will be exceedingly close. I don't think he'll be toppled now. The ERG will back him and the Labour rebels may also. If they do it'll be unforgiveable but you never know.

[Alex 35077]

Just like May's deal it could get through if a referendum was attached to Parliament approving it. Just like then, too many MPs are selfish cunts 

[Gemmill 44853]

1 hour ago, Rayvin said:

It really sounds like any vote on Johnson's deal will be exceedingly close. I don't think he'll be toppled now. The ERG will back him and the Labour rebels may also. If they do it'll be unforgiveable but you never know.

 

He's not gonna get a deal to bring back to Parliament. 

[Rayvin 5219]

I dunno man, I have a bad feeling about this. Maybe he's playing exactly the same game that May was but with far more effectiveness. Scare his own party and parliament into thinking that No Deal is possible, even when it has been legislated against, scare the EU into thinking it, and somehow come out with some manner of deal that's basically hard Brexit.

 

In fact the more I think about it, the more realistic it sounds. I think he's serious about this deal, and I think it's been the game plan all along. Financial speculators betting against the pound, Cummings, "dead in a ditch", it's all a red herring to make it seem like he was hell bent on No Deal when in fact he just wanted a more ably handled shot at May's gambit. And it's not really even for the EU's benefit, save for the small amount of additional concessions he needed to be able to re-package May's deal. The threat of No Deal has always been about terrifying Parliament - and this time it's working. Those 19 Labour rebels man, they're the ones who will deliver him.

 

He'll get his deal, go back to the people claiming to have won the day for Brexit (which he will have done, hands down), win any subsequent election off the back of looking like the most competent politician in the room, and finish off Labour. The left and centre will turn on Corbyn of course, although I do now think that actually, Labour had played this fairly well throughout - being able to take us into the ballpark of another referendum was always going to be difficult, but they have managed to get it right to the line. Corbyn will resign, someone else takes over but the energy drops out of the bottom of Labour and the youth give up on trying to change anything, going back to being disaffected. The Lib Dem vote collapses since the main reason anyone would vote for them has now disappeared.

 

And another decade of the Tories.

 

If he gets his deal through, IMO that's where we're heading.

[Gemmill 44853]

How can he scare the EU into thinking he's going to deliver No Deal when the law dictates that he has to request an extension and its within their gift to agree it. 

 

The EU are not going to agree a deal that they aren't happy with, and time is really fucking running out to get anything over the line here. Everyone is talking very positively because no one wants to be the one to say "it's over", especially not on the EU side. 

 

I reckon the overwhelmingly likely scenario is that he doesn't get a deal by the weekend and either he requests the extension himself or the courts order him to on Monday. 

[Renton 21614]

9 minutes ago, Gemmill said:

How can he scare the EU into thinking he's going to deliver No Deal when the law dictates that he has to request an extension and its within their gift to agree it. 

 

The EU are not going to agree a deal that they aren't happy with, and time is really fucking running out to get anything over the line here. Everyone is talking very positively because no one wants to be the one to say "it's over", especially not on the EU side. 

 

I reckon the overwhelmingly likely scenario is that he doesn't get a deal by the weekend and either he requests the extension himself or the courts order him to on Monday. 

 

This. It makes much more sense for the EU not to give an inch at this stage, and let Johnson be hoisted on his own petard. They've nothing to lose, the tories are making the UK a competitive threat on their door step (through reduced rights and standards). Merkel actually said this yesterday. In this scenario I'd actually think no deal suits the EU more than a watered down WA which facilitates our removal from the EU regulatory sphere. Why facilitate that? 

[ewerk 30598]

At this point I think it'll be more about scaring the ERG into backing his 'deal' or facing losing Brexit altogether.

[Gemmill 44853]

At this rate they might not even need to turn ip on Saturday. Barnier has apparently just told the EU27 that the UK's latest proposals are not enough and that they need to get something sorted by tonight. Time has pretty much run out. 

 

And assuming he somehow manages to deliver something acceptable tonight, it then needs to be revealed how much he's had to water down his proposals to get an agreement. At which point the ERG and DUP will get involved. 

 

I really can't see this happening. 

[Gemmill 44853]

Johnson reported to have been told to agree to an East West border by midnight or to forget it. Which loses him the DUP votes for definite. 

 

I can't imagine a world where the Labour rebels look at what this deal does for workers rights and vote it through. I saw Kinnock talking last night and he seemed to only be talking about voting through a deal which included stuff from the cross party talks last time around. This deal won't satisfy that. Its gonna be proper squeaky bum time if something does go to a vote but I don't even see it getting that far tbh. 

[Renton 21614]

It's a shame CT isn't around to ask what he thinks will happen, so we can safely assume the opposite. 

 

I think Gemmill's right though. Johnson needs the buy in of the DUP. Although it is just about possible they will fold because they're fucked whichever way now. Having said that, they're stubborn bastards. 

[Dr Gloom 21915]

a people vs parliament election has been the plan since johnson appointed cummings. i don't think that's changed. 

[Gemmill 44853]

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-50029635

 

Tory election leaflets show they're preparing for a delay. 

[Gemmill 44853]

Thread. This bloke knows his shit. 

[Gemmill 44853]

Apparently a deal is in the offing and it's a border in the Irish Sea. Expect DUP and at least some of the ERG to vote against it but we'll see. Over to the Labour rebels to not make up the DUP votes. 

[ewerk 30598]

This is Kate Hoey's worst nightmare.

[Rayvin 5219]

I have a general feeling of dread about this. I do not trust the Labour MPs at all and I think the ERG will know this is as good as it gets now.

[Renton 21614]

There will have to be some delay regardless now I think, so Johnson's Halloween promise is likely to be broken. Must admit I don't think that will massively damage him. Which way are the ex-Tory rebels likely to go on this?

[Dr Gloom 21915]

arlene won't stand for a border in the irish sea

[ewerk 30598]

Any of them who voted for May's deal will vote for this. The committment to a level playing field will see many of the ERG out but may well see several Labour rebels back the deal. The DUP are almost definitely out.

My hunch is that I can't see him getting the votes for this but it might be tight.

[Gemmill 44853]

Has he committed to the level playing field? 

[ewerk 30598]

He'll have to or he'll have no deal to bring before Parliament.

[Renton 21614]

5 minutes ago, Gemmill said:

Has he committed to the level playing field? 

Not sure that's public knowledge or not, but I suspect he won't, otherwise what's the point? Apparently he wants less alignment than Canada or Japan had for their FTAs ffs. Any Labour MP voting for this is incredibly stupid or compromised imo.

[Renton 21614]

ERG have thrown the DUP under the bus it seems. What a surprise. Shit deal here we come.