Europe --- In or Out

[Renton 21309]

1 hour ago, Dr Gloom said:

the polls were wrong on trump and the original brexit referendum

This just isn't true. In both cases they predicted that Remain and Clinton would probably win (85% chance iirc). The less likely result came true. That's not being wrong. 

[Dr Gloom 21813]

So the prediction that they would probably win was right? 

[Renton 21309]

2 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:

So the prediction that they would probably win was right? 

Yes. Because the chances they would lose were well within the accepted confidence limits. 

 

I don't like this myth nobody saw this coming, it's rewriting history. Look back on this thread, loads of people called it correctly. I didn't though. 

[ewerk 30266]

Look the polls were wrong once so they can never be trusted again.

[Dr Gloom 21813]

16 minutes ago, Renton said:

Yes. Because the chances they would lose were well within the accepted confidence limits. 

 

I don't like this myth nobody saw this coming, it's rewriting history. Look back on this thread, loads of people called it correctly. I didn't though. 

i'm not rewriting anything. i remember that people were pretty confident we would get the results we wanted on brexit and trump - the polls played their part in that, so forgive me for not being as confident as rayvin appears to be in the event of a second referendum just because they're suggesting similar this time.  

[Renton 21309]

29 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:

i'm not rewriting anything. i remember that people were pretty confident we would get the results we wanted on brexit and trump - the polls played their part in that, so forgive me for not being as confident as rayvin appears to be in the event of a second referendum just because they're suggesting similar this time.  

 

It's simply not true. The evidence is on this thread. For me, I felt like I would in the extremely hypothetical event we were entering an FA cup final as clear favourites. Logically I knew we'd probably win, but I'd not be confident.  Loads of people expected Leave to win in the final days. Cameron knew it was game over before the first result came out. 

 

I'd feel much more confident with a rerun if they pointed to an appropriate statistically highly likely victory. They didn't in 2016. 

[Dr Gloom 21813]

i don't have the time to reread the thread. my memory is the polls were on our side right until the end and there was shock and disbelief all around, at my workplace at least. i can't remember people on here calling it in here either - you're saying there was a consenus pre-result night that we were voting to leave?

[Renton 21309]

3 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:

i don't have the time to reread the thread. my memory is the polls were on our side right until the end and there was shock and disbelief all around, at my workplace at least. i can't remember people on here calling it in here either - you're saying there was a consenus pre-result night that we were voting to leave?

 

I'm saying many weren't confident and some called it correctly. I nearly threw up when the Newcastle vote came in and confirmed my worst fears. It's an interesting read kept for posterity tbf. 

 

Your problem is you live in your elite Peckham libtard intelligentsia bubble.

 

 

[wykikitoon 19892]

I cried tbh

[Dr Gloom 21813]

7 minutes ago, Renton said:

 

I'm saying many weren't confident and some called it correctly. I nearly threw up when the Newcastle vote came in and confirmed my worst fears. It's an interesting read kept for posterity tbf. 

 

Your problem is you live in your elite Peckham libtard intelligentsia bubble.

 

 

south london liberal elite massive 

[Rayvin 5183]

I can't remember if I articulated a view one way or the other about what I thought would happen about Brexit, but I do recall at least feeling that Remain would win, and being surprised that it didn't. However, that was a watershed moment for me - after that I recall being fairly certain that Trump would do better than people thought, if not win.

 

With Brexit though, you could see the polls narrowing in the days before, and there was a real sense that it could go horribly wrong. The same might happen this time, but the unicorns don't exist anymore. Brexit can't be all things to all people anymore, it's going to be a very fixed thing only. Which is in part where my confidence comes from.

[ewerk 30266]

On 6/22/2016 at 23:50, ewerk said:

In. No doubt.

I'd like it on the record that my prediction was within the margin of error.

[Renton 21309]

7 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

I can't remember if I articulated a view one way or the other about what I thought would happen about Brexit, but I do recall at least feeling that Remain would win, and being surprised that it didn't. However, that was a watershed moment for me - after that I recall being fairly certain that Trump would do better than people thought, if not win.

 

With Brexit though, you could see the polls narrowing in the days before, and there was a real sense that it could go horribly wrong. The same might happen this time, but the unicorns don't exist anymore. Brexit can't be all things to all people anymore, it's going to be a very fixed thing only. Which is in part where my confidence comes from.

I'm going to agree with this. If it weren't for the unicorns, leave wouldn't have got 40%. Only fly in the ointment now is pig headed stubbornness. 

 

 

[ewerk 30266]

So Johnson has unveiled his grand plan to replace the backstop. Basically it keep NI in the SM but out of the EU customs union. Plus it has to the agreement has to be renewed every four years by Stormont.

It's enough to say he tried to compromise but nowhere near enough to satisfy the EU.

Firstly it does require new checks to happen on cross border transactions and secondly it is essentially time limited as the DUP are certain to veto it in four years time.

[Renton 21309]

5 minutes ago, ewerk said:

So Johnson has unveiled his grand plan to replace the backstop. Basically it keep NI in the SM but out of the EU customs union. Plus it has to the agreement has to be renewed every four years by Stormont.

It's enough to say he tried to compromise but nowhere near enough to satisfy the EU.

Firstly it does require new checks to happen on cross border transactions and secondly it is essentially time limited as the DUP are certain to veto it in four years time.

My understanding is they can veto it immediately after the transition period, end of next year. 

[ewerk 30266]

Aye, you're right, they can veto it during the transition period.

[Dr Gloom 21813]

26 minutes ago, ewerk said:

So Johnson has unveiled his grand plan to replace the backstop. Basically it keep NI in the SM but out of the EU customs union. Plus it has to the agreement has to be renewed every four years by Stormont.

It's enough to say he tried to compromise but nowhere near enough to satisfy the EU.

Firstly it does require new checks to happen on cross border transactions and secondly it is essentially time limited as the DUP are certain to veto it in four years time.

the 27 will rightly never accept it, especially given the talk of it being a final offer - right out of the mike ashley negotiating playbook

so it sets it up for a people vs parliament/eu GE, which is what cummings has wanted all along. trumpville here we come

Edited October 2, 2019 by Dr Gloom

[PaddockLad 17079]

 

[Anorthernsoul 1221]

17,571 posts and still no closer to a deal 

 

The Tories are so competent.

[Alex 34846]

3 hours ago, Dr Gloom said:

i don't have the time to reread the thread. my memory is the polls were on our side right until the end and there was shock and disbelief all around, at my workplace at least. i can't remember people on here calling it in here either - you're saying there was a consenus pre-result night that we were voting to leave?

That’s the MSM for you. 

[Isegrim 9733]

1 hour ago, Dr Gloom said:

the 27 will rightly never accept it, especially given the talk of it being a final offer - right out of the mike ashley negotiating playbook

so it sets it up for a people vs parliament/eu GE, which is what cummings has wanted all along. trumpville here we come

Exactly. There is hardly any difference in Ashley pretending that he wants to sell the club and Johnson wanting a deal.

[Rayvin 5183]

Am concerned that the EU haven't dismissed this out of hand...

 

If it somehow is made to work, and then it goes back to Parliament, the following issues would be a problem:

 

1 - The Tory rebels might back it along with some Labour rebels.

 

2 - it really will set the people against parliament if it gets voted down.

 

A deal has always been the biggest remaining threat to us IMO.

Edited October 2, 2019 by Rayvin

[Rayvin 5183]

And of course we now have Lib Dems coming out and saying they'd prefer No Deal to Corbyn in power, even briefly. The absolute psychopaths.

 

https://www.thenational.scot/news/17942282.scottish-libdem-mp-prefers-no-deal-brexit-corbyn-government/

Edited October 2, 2019 by Rayvin

[Renton 21309]

19 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

Am concerned that the EU haven't dismissed this out of hand...

 

If it somehow is made to work, and then it goes back to Parliament, the following issues would be a problem:

 

1 - The Tory rebels might back it along with some Labour rebels.

 

2 - it really will set the people against parliament if it gets voted down.

 

A deal has always been the biggest remaining threat to us IMO.

It doesn't have legs as it stands currently imo. It's a time limited diluted backstop. Can't see the ROI agreeing and EU27 will back them.

 

It doesn't suit Johnson either. The last thing he wants is a deal. This is all for show to further his blame game narrative. 

[Renton 21309]

20 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

And of course we now have Lib Dems coming out and saying they'd prefer No Deal to Corbyn in power, even briefly. The absolute psychopaths.

 

https://www.thenational.scot/news/17942282.scottish-libdem-mp-prefers-no-deal-brexit-corbyn-government/

That's one nobody tbf.