Europe --- In or Out

[ewerk 30266]

Yeah, the one thing about being a ‘character’ is that it fires up the other side. Unfortunately Johnson is a rather shallow character devoid of substance and will be found out very quickly.

[Tom 14011]

I bet he fucking stinks the greasy haired tramp.

[Rayvin 5185]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/05/corbyn-poised-to-reject-demand-for-15-october-election

 

Labour going to wait by the sounds of it...

[Howmanheyman 32735]

15 hours ago, Rayvin said:

I think you could quite possibly be right, but I also think that the situation may be deteriorating quickly in terms of 'how the public see things'. I'm not sure Boris is coming off all that strong at the moment.

 

Conversely, if Corbyn can just shut up and sit down for a bit, avoid doing anything stupid and force Johnson to humiliate himself by asking for an extension, he might win some people over.

"Again with the 'Boris'! Oy! vey!"

 

[Rayvin 5185]

Consider me brainwashed by the media on this one. I've caught myself a couple of times but its a hard one to shake.

[Howmanheyman 32735]

3 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

Consider me brainwashed by the media on this one. I've caught myself a couple of times but its a hard one to shake.

I can well imagine, joking aside. Luckily I'm not affected by the virus but I'm not as exposed to it as most.

[Meenzer 15408]

I suppose it's fitting that a referendum hijacked by Russian bots has ended up with a man with the most stereotypically Russian name of all in charge.

[Dr Gloom 21813]

Boris Jonskie

[Rayvin 5185]

Labour will not vote for an early referendum.

 

This means that the Tories have been outplayed in the Lords, since they dropped the filibuster for this very reason. Johnson will cry 'chicken' but honestly I think people will be more frustrated about him than they will be about Corbyn. He's also almost certain to resign by the sounds of things, rather than go to the EU.

[Meenzer 15408]

 

They see right through "us". And rightly so.

[Rayvin 5185]

Yeah it's a good interview. Has no issue with calling Johnson a liar as well, which is nice to see.

Edited September 6, 2019 by Rayvin

[Rayvin 5185]

Lords has approved Benn - it gets royal assent on Monday, at which point Boris asks for a GE vote, everyone votes it down (assuming Bercow even lets him do it) and then Parliament gets shut down at the end of the week.

 

I think the biggest remaining threat to a second referendum is actually the notion that Boris might get a deal.

[NJS 4371]

9 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

Lords has approved Benn - it gets royal assent on Monday, at which point Boris asks for a GE vote, everyone votes it down (assuming Bercow even lets him do it) and then Parliament gets shut down at the end of the week.

 

I think the biggest remaining threat to a second referendum is actually the notion that Boris might get a deal.

What about that shit with the "accidental" return of May's Deal? 

[Rayvin 5185]

Just now, NJS said:

What about that shit with the "accidental" return of May's Deal? 

 

Apparently Labour's legal advice has established that it didn't change anything materially. I'm a bit wary of it myself but the lay of the land appears to be that it's meaningless. I think the gist was that it set out that the extension would be on the basis of securing May's deal, but it doesn't actually compel Parliament to vote for the deal so it's really just a nothing of an amendment.

[Rayvin 5185]

I have just read in the Guardian though that Boris' strategy will be to resign and effectively give opposition parties 14 days to agree on whether they can form a coalition government (presumably Corbyn heading it), or we have a GE by default. There is a set time frame for the GE under such circumstances, and it would fall on October 29th, too late to avert No Deal.

 

Doubtless a coalition will be formed, but which of them wants to carry the can for ending Brexit? I actually think Ken Clarke might well be the best bet. He has nothing to lose.

[Meenzer 15408]

 

[Anorthernsoul 1221]

Boris is getting mauled from all angles 

 

It's even worse than I predicted.

[zerosum 234]

This woman baffles me, and surely (taking off any remain cap you are wearing for one moment) it sounds ridiculous to everyone? Surely any future vote has to be between leave full stop, and remain full stop. Not a deal or remain, that’s pretty much what the last 3 years have already been, it’s like groundhog day, Theresa negotiations mark 2.

 

 

[Rayvin 5185]

I think she was getting flak because on paper it sounds ridiculous - negotiate a deal and then campaign against it. But, having said that, if you think it through it's actually not as crazy as it sounds. People who are deriding her are talking as if Labour believe they can get a super special awesome deal (the one Leave talked about I guess). Apparently they don't believe that. What she appears to suggest is that Labour do the best they can do to get something resembling a coherent deal that doesn't annihilate the country, and then offer people a vote on it while telling people, quite frankly, that remain is still better than the deal they've achieved. I don't think that breaks any logical thinking.

 

As for your specific point, I've seen a lot of different opinions on this. There are some who think it should just be Deal Brexit or No Deal Brexit. Some who think it should be Remain or Deal. Others who think it should be No Deal, Deal or Remain. I'm not sure I've come across anyone so far who thinks it should specifically be No Deal vs Remain but that's probably just because there is no way No Deal would win that.

 

As for me, I agree with you - I think it should be No Deal vs Remain. Mostly because if they throw a deal in, there's a chance it might win.

[zerosum 234]

Yeah, see your point. I think, at least I think I think ... that it’s pointless trying to get “another deal” if Boris flops out here.

 

The deals that have come back thus far have not been able to get the go ahead. I don’t think leavers in parliament want to compromise on anything less than a hard - ish Brexit. And even some remain don’t want to cut our arms off with some stuff, just to dress it up and say “it’s Brexit”.

 

So fuck it, let’s just get the elephant out of the room. Did people know they were voting for no deal?

 

No Deal - Remain.

[ewerk 30266]

I think there’s an argument to be made that it would be irresponsible to put no deal on the ballot paper. Why would any normal government give people the option to be worse off?

Part of government’s role is to prevent people from hurting themselves due to their own stupidity. That should extend to a no deal Brexit.

[Rayvin 5185]

I think because of the way the whole thing has been handled so far, No Deal kind of has to be on the ballot. Too many politicians have made it sound credible. 

 

I do see what you're saying though, and i think its possible they will remove it. Labour seem fairly clear on that at least.

 

As for Zerosum, one point you made that I was curious about. In your view, how was Mays deal anything other than hard Brexit? It killed freedom of movement and took us out of all institutions if i remember rightly. I ask because you refer to it as a hard-ish Brexit.

Edited September 7, 2019 by Rayvin

[NJS 4371]

I think Corbyn has suggested that when he's talked to the EU they've been more receptive to his redlines that the tories (though I think his vision isn't soft enough). 

 

As I said the second vote zealots have been very coy about what they think should be the other option('s) because they assume they'll win - I don't see anything wrong in making an alternative thats the best possible just in case - though I can see that may reduce the chances of an outright victory for remain. I think smugly putting no deal up against remain assuming an easy victory could bite them on the arse. 

 

I do agree the campaigning question (against their own deal) is difficult but there's nothing that bad about "we want you to vote remain but if you can't at least the other option isn't that bad" in my view - though I can see it's attackable. 

[ewerk 30266]

The idea that Labour can get a better deal than May isn’t really realistic. The withdrawal deal is just that, looking at the leaving part.

What Labour could do is rewrite the political declaration pledging to keep us in the SM and CU therefore making the backstop redundant. Though it would still need to be in the WA in some form.

[zerosum 234]

36 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

 

As for Zerosum, one point you made that I was curious about. In your view, how was Mays deal anything other than hard Brexit? It killed freedom of movement and took us out of all institutions if i remember rightly. I ask because you refer to it as a hard-ish Brexit.

 

No I referred to it as not hard enough for some of the leave politicians. Maybe it’s my wording, it was late .. 

 

They can’t get it passed because there’s many don’t want a backstop (mainly) .. so for a “deal” to pass it’s going to have to be a harder version of what she presented, to an extent.