Europe --- In or Out

[Rayvin 5183]

13 hours ago, Isegrim said:

Good to see the moral standards from all those ministers who can't remember what they said two months ago about suspending parliament.

 

Indeed. This is my favourite:

 

Matt Hancock

Prorogation would mean the end of the Conservative party” – 6 June

Morning, how are you? Sorry. How are you?” – Thursday

[Rayvin 5183]

https://news.sky.com/story/tory-grandee-ken-clarke-id-be-prepared-to-back-jeremy-corbyn-as-caretaker-pm-11797355

 

Ken Clarke is ok with Corbyn becoming caretaker PM to avert No Deal.

 

I'm in the camp of 'too little, too late' now, but you never know I guess.

[NJS 4371]

As I said when it was suggested, the idea that he'd try and pass all kinds of legislation is just scare tactics as it would be voted down anyway without the extra numbers from other parties. 

 

Of course Clarke won't have to sell himself as anti-Corbyn at a subsequent election which is the real reason Swinson won't join. 

[ewerk 30266]

 

:sigh: 

[ewerk 30266]

Pretty much confirming what we already knew.

 

[Rayvin 5183]

Yep, at least cards will finally be on the table after today.

[Gemmill 44393]

Scary day ahead. Let's hope they've got the numbers for this vote. 

[ewerk 30266]

They've got the numbers. The real test will be whether the bill itself is bomb proof.

Johnson last night stated that he wouldn't follow the law. What happens then?

[Gemmill 44393]

I hope that would result in enough sensible people handing him an election defeat. 

[ewerk 30266]

Yeah but the danger is that he could delay it long enough to take us out on no deal.

Are the PM's actions subject to judicial review? Can it be completed in time? And if so then what remedy can the court award?

[Rayvin 5183]

I'm struggling to imagine that a Parliament that ruled out No Deal last time around could possibly have changed its mind just because Johnson is at the helm. I think it's a fairly safe bet Parliament will torpedo it today. It's tomorrow where everything gets exciting.

[ewerk 30266]

Criminally though he could face a life sentence for misconduct in public office which would obviously be a fantastic outcome but that's not the pressing issue here.

[Rayvin 5183]

Just now, ewerk said:

Yeah but the danger is that he could delay it long enough to take us out on no deal.

Are the PM's actions subject to judicial review? Can it be completed in time? And if so then what remedy can the court award?

 

Labour claimed earlier that they will only back a GE if they have cast iron and legal assurances that the campaigning window won't extend past Brexit day (or October 18th I think it was, to be accurate).

[ewerk 30266]

Just now, Rayvin said:

I'm struggling to imagine that a Parliament that ruled out No Deal last time around could possibly have changed its mind just because Johnson is at the helm. I think it's a fairly safe bet Parliament will torpedo it today. It's tomorrow where everything gets exciting.

The only way parliament can rule out no deal is by revoking Article 50. Even requesting an extension leaves our fate in the hands of the EU.

[Rayvin 5183]

Just now, ewerk said:

Criminally though he could face a life sentence for misconduct in public office which would obviously be a fantastic outcome but that's not the pressing issue here.

 

I mean it should actually be treason, surely?

[Rayvin 5183]

Just now, ewerk said:

The only way parliament can rule out no deal is by revoking Article 50. Even requesting an extension leaves our fate in the hands of the EU.

 

Yes but with the GE, I think the EU would give us that as a last roll of the dice. From their point of view they're choosing between the worst case scenario and the chance that everything may all go away - they'll choose the latter.

[ewerk 30266]

Just now, Rayvin said:

 

Labour claimed earlier that they will only back a GE if they have cast iron and legal assurances that the campaigning window won't extend past Brexit day (or October 18th I think it was, to be accurate).

I'm not sure those assurances are possible. Johnson can use Royal Pejorative to set the date so I don't think he's can be bound on that.

[ewerk 30266]

Just now, Rayvin said:

 

Yes but with the GE, I think the EU would give us that as a last roll of the dice. From their point of view they're choosing between the worst case scenario and the chance that everything may all go away - they'll choose the latter.

I think you're right but it only takes one member state to veto that.

[Rayvin 5183]

Just now, ewerk said:

I'm not sure those assurances are possible. Johnson can use Royal Pejorative to set the date so I don't think he's can be bound on that.

 

In which case Labour shouldn't vote it through. Hopefully this is them establishing their narrative for not doing so.

[ewerk 30266]

Just now, Rayvin said:

 

Yes but with the GE, I think the EU would give us that as a last roll of the dice. From their point of view they're choosing between the worst case scenario and the chance that everything may all go away - they'll choose the latter.

So why not wait until after 31st October to force an election? The numbers and will are almost certainly there and it ensures we won't crash out. There's no urgent need for a GE this side of the deadline.

[Dr Gloom 21813]

Let’s assume they do have the numbers. If you’re an MP and you want to stop no deal, do you vote for a snap GE if Johnson calls for one, and risk giving him a proper mandate and majority to do what the fuck he wants?

JC’s campaigning surprised me last time around but hearing him give an address yesterday, I couldn’t help but cringe. Blair might be right about he elephant trap. But I don’t see him pulling the mother of all reverse ferrets after he’s spent 3 years calling for an election.

[Rayvin 5183]

1 minute ago, ewerk said:

I think you're right but it only takes one member state to veto that.

 

Aye true, but they seem to have remained fairly united so far, with the exception of Macron's blustering. If there was a pledge to have an election or referendum this time, I think even he'd swallow it.

[Rayvin 5183]

Just now, Dr Gloom said:

Let’s assume they do have the numbers. If you’re an MP and you want to stop no deal, do you vote for a snap GE if Johnson calls for one, and risk giving him a proper mandate and majority to do what the fuck he wants?

JC’s campaigning surprised me last time around but hearing him give an address yesterday, I couldn’t help but cringe. Blair might be right about he elephant trap. But I don’t see him pulling the mother of all reverse ferrets after he’s spent 3 years calling for an election.

 

I don't think it's going to have much to do with Corbyn and personalities this time around. Labour will crash and burn because they don't have the middle class remainers. Why they've not realised this I don't know, but there it is. Ultimately though it doesn't matter, hopefully, because if Labour can get itself to a position of at least committing to a second referendum, and Swinson can handle letting Corbyn be PM, we can have a rainbow coalition of Remain and Remain-lite (Labour), deliver the second referendum and then, very likely, have another GE a bit later on when the country is voting for things other than Brexit (if it looks safe to do so).

[ewerk 30266]

Just now, Dr Gloom said:

JC’s campaigning surprised me last time around but hearing him give an address yesterday, I couldn’t help but cringe. Blair might be right about he elephant trap. But I don’t see him pulling the mother of all reverse ferrets after he’s spent 3 years calling for an election.

[Rayvin 5183]

3 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:

Let’s assume they do have the numbers. If you’re an MP and you want to stop no deal, do you vote for a snap GE if Johnson calls for one, and risk giving him a proper mandate and majority to do what the fuck he wants?

JC’s campaigning surprised me last time around but hearing him give an address yesterday, I couldn’t help but cringe. Blair might be right about he elephant trap. But I don’t see him pulling the mother of all reverse ferrets after he’s spent 3 years calling for an election.

 

Misread this, sorry. Yeah I agree, hard to imagine him not voting it through.