Europe --- In or Out

[Alex 35083]

1 hour ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

From 1992

 

Who could this be  

 

 

Rik Mayall

[ewerk 30616]

Confirmation from the Chancellor, not that it was needed, is that under all scenarios Brexit will make the country poorer.

Is that what you voted for @Christmas Tree ?

[ewerk 30616]

So the analysis today confirms that free trade deals would add just 0.2% to our GDP. 

[Christmas Tree 4725]

3 hours ago, ewerk said:

Confirmation from the Chancellor, not that it was needed, is that under all scenarios Brexit will make the country poorer.

Is that what you voted for @Christmas Tree ?

 

Sorry, I’d thought that you’d be rejoicing that we are not getting the crash that all remainers have said was coming. 

 

First it was for just voting to leave, then the reply from you all was “we haven’t left yet” and now the figures you referring to confirm that was indeed just project fear.

[Christmas Tree 4725]

1 minute ago, ewerk said:

So the analysis today confirms that free trade deals would add just 0.2% to our GDP. 

 

Btw, the guy from the FT has just said on BBC that this analysis is equivalent to trying to predict the weather forecast on one day in 15 years time

 

 

[ewerk 30616]

23 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

Sorry, I’d thought that you’d be rejoicing that we are not getting the crash that all remainers have said was coming. 

 

First it was for just voting to leave, then the reply from you all was “we haven’t left yet” and now the figures you referring to confirm that was indeed just project fear.

Hold on. You voted leave so we could do free trade deals, thus improving our economy but it has been shown today that no Brexit will deliver that. This invalidates your reason for leaving. Time to admit that you were wrong?

[Christmas Tree 4725]

9 minutes ago, ewerk said:

Hold on. You voted leave so we could do free trade deals, thus improving our economy but it has been shown today that no Brexit will deliver that. This invalidates your reason for leaving. Time to admit that you were wrong?

 

 I voted leave for many reasons (listed clearly 2 days after Brexit).

 

As for the latest analysis, I treat it with the same scorn as last time (When they said there would be a crash and a massive surge in unemployment).

 

Surely you’re not falling for them again

[ewerk 30616]

1 minute ago, Christmas Tree said:

As for the latest analysis, I treat it with the same scorn as last time (When they said there would be a crash and a massive surge in unemployment).

 

Surely you’re not falling for them again

You don't need to be an economic forecaster to understand this. It's pretty simple.

We're putting up barriers with our largest trading partners, agreed?

We need to do new trade deals to compensate for that and much more in order to make this a success, agreed?

But no one can tell me who these massive trade deals are going to be with and what we're going to sell them. I've been asking the same question for months. It's been confirmed that these new deals are only going to add 0.2% to GDP, that's less than we'd see with a warm summer. 

So tell me what your reasons are to be optimistic? 

[Christmas Tree 4725]

13 minutes ago, ewerk said:

You don't need to be an economic forecaster to understand this. It's pretty simple.

We're putting up barriers with our largest trading partners, agreed?

We need to do new trade deals to compensate for that and much more in order to make this a success, agreed?

But no one can tell me who these massive trade deals are going to be with and what we're going to sell them. I've been asking the same question for months. It's been confirmed that these new deals are only going to add 0.2% to GDP, that's less than we'd see with a warm summer. 

So tell me what your reasons are to be optimistic? 

 

I just did. 

 

Seriously, why on earth would you give this any credence given how wrong it was last time?

[ewerk 30616]

You gave no reason for optimism other than your own beliefs.

Do you think the government wants to tell us that Brexit is going to be bad for the economy? They want to tell us that it's going to be brilliant and to back their deal.

So answer the question, where is the trade going to come from to make up for that lost to the EU and via our existing FTAs?

[Alex 35083]

He probably already knows he’s wrong. It’s not like he’s going to admit it though 

[PaddockLad 17274]

4 minutes ago, ewerk said:

You gave no reason for optimism other than your own beliefs.

Do you think the government wants to tell us that Brexit is going to be bad for the economy? They want to tell us that it's going to be brilliant and to back their deal.

So answer the question, where is the trade going to come from to make up for that lost to the EU and via our existing FTAs?

 

CT wouldn't know a fuckin trade deal from a Tesco's meal deal

 

 

[Dr Gloom 21924]

10 minutes ago, ewerk said:

You gave no reason for optimism other than your own beliefs.

Do you think the government wants to tell us that Brexit is going to be bad for the economy? They want to tell us that it's going to be brilliant and to back their deal.

So answer the question, where is the trade going to come from to make up for that lost to the EU and via our existing FTAs?

yeah, but osborne's brexit budget never happened, project fear, so-called experts etc

[Dr Gloom 21924]

to be fair to CT, osborne's threat of a post-referendum emergency budget was political.  there was an element of fear-mongering designed to swing floating voters. sterling tanked right after the vote and has never recovered - expect parity with the dollar, at the very best, and an economic crash in the event of no deal.

these new growth forecasts aren't political at all - we're talking about this government's assessment of conditions created by the deal that its PM secured. there is little reason to think they're overly negative, or designed to project fear. 

[Alex 35083]

All along CT has claimed we’d get a cracking deal. As it’s gradually emerged that would never happen we're now left with shit deal, no deal or remain. While CT has tried to claim the first of those is cracking, it’s not even likely to get through Parliament. No one sees the benefits of it whatever side of the fence they’re on and the only people likely to vote for it are those with a misguided sense of loyalty to the best PM ever. Even our esteemed taxi driver, despite being a moron, realises this but by continuing his charade he gets a bit of attention. Plus he likes us better than the lads on the Britain First forum he goes on

[PaddockLad 17274]

I'm wondering what the point is of the nationwide charm/PR offensive May is currently indulging in?  It's almost as if she's campaigning in the run up to a vote... 🤔

[Christmas Tree 4725]

3 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:

there is little reason to think they're overly negative, or designed to project fear. 

 

  Of course they are man. It’s the same old remain treasury once again hoping that they can scare everyone into a 2nd refferendum / staying in.  

[Dr Gloom 21924]

2 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

  Of course they are man. It’s the same old remain treasury once again hoping that they can scare everyone into a 2nd refferendum / staying in.  

you think that's what May is shooting for? 

[Alex 35083]

Yeah, May is painting her own deal in an overly negative light in order to sell it

[Christmas Tree 4725]

2 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:

you think that's what May is shooting for? 

 

I think Mays toast, the brexiteers haven’t got the votes and this is exactly what Hammond / Rudd / Hands and the majority of Parliament is shooting for!

[Alex 35083]

Parliamentary sovereignty is what you voted for

[ewerk 30616]

9 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

  Of course they are man. It’s the same old remain treasury once again hoping that they can scare everyone into a 2nd refferendum / staying in.  

Can you show me all the independent analysis claiming a positive boost from Brexit? 

Dont even bother with Minford.

[Christmas Tree 4725]

18 minutes ago, ewerk said:

Can you show me all the independent analysis claiming a positive boost from Brexit? 

Dont even bother with Minford.

 

 No thanks. We’ve had 2 years of this so pretty much know all the various arguments for and against Brexit.

 

The bottom line is nobody has a clue what the actual financial position will be in 15 years time. The guy from the FT and most serious financial professionals have said this.

 

For example, this sort of analysis takes no measure of whether there’s another crash, a eurozone meltdown, the effects of AI etc etc.

 

More importantly, who is in government over that period will have much more of an impact of GDP in 15 years time than Brexit. 

 

Brexit is all about being a sovereign country once again with full control of our money, laws, fishing, who we want to trade with etc.

[Dr Gloom 21924]

14 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

I think Mays toast, the brexiteers haven’t got the votes and this is exactly what Hammond / Rudd / Hands and the majority of Parliament is shooting for!

I agree that there aren’t the numbers in parliament for no deal or May’s deal. And that PV, soft Brexit or a GE are all more likely outcomes. 

But I don’t see the connection between that and these numbers being cooked, sorry.

[Renton 21627]

Erm, this analysis is based on the mythical Chequers deal that has already been rejected by the EU. It doesn't take into account inevitable trading frictions so important to Nissan etc (sensitivity analysis does though). These are pretty easy to model. So, in fact the impact of this shit deal will be much, much worse than the current analysis, which is already negative. 

 

What I'd like to know CT is do you think all this uncertainty has been worth it? Whilst May and others have prevaricated over Brexit, to get a demonstrably worse deal than we had already and completely alienate ourselves to our closest allies, how do you think the actual running of the country has gone?

 

No wait, don't tell me, the answer is "cracking". You are a fool sir. An absolute clown. An idiot, if you will.