Europe --- In or Out

[ewerk 30611]

On the other hand it would mean that the Brexiteers couldn’t force a vote of no confidence as it’s unlikely that the Tories would win a GE.

[Rayvin 5223]

If it turns out in 4 months that she cant do it, how is the electoral suicide outcome any different?

[ewerk 30611]

 

This is the sort of person we elect to iron out the fine details.

[ewerk 30611]

Trump is going to give us a cracking deal though.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/05/15/trump-threatens-use-us-trade-talks-force-nhs-pay-drugs/?utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#link_time=1526388524

[ewerk 30611]

 

[ewerk 30611]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44148027

So in the absence of any of the unicorn proposals being floated we’re all staying in the customs union.

I’m still not sure how that prevents a hard border though.

[Renton 21626]

40 minutes ago, ewerk said:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44148027

So in the absence of any of the unicorn proposals being floated we’re all staying in the customs union.

I’m still not sure how that prevents a hard border though.

 

She'll backtrack on the SM next which will prevent a hard border. In all this you have to remember that 'no deal' doesn't really exist. If we crash with no deal, we literally lose all our regulatory apparatus overnight, it's not going to happen. Holidays cancelled and empty food shelves won't even appeal to tubs (especially the latter).

 

It's going pretty much every bit as I expected. What a waste of time, money, and international standing. I want my country back. 

[Christmas Tree 4725]

On 17/05/2018 at 16:55, ewerk said:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44148027

So in the absence of any of the unicorn proposals being floated we’re all staying in the customs union.

I’m still not sure how that prevents a hard border though.

 

The word on the eventual backstop is that Northern Ireland will remain in a single market for goods and that the U.K. as a whole will remain in a customs union.

[ewerk 30611]

For how long?

[ewerk 30611]

Also doesn’t solve the problem at GB ports.

[Renton 21626]

2 hours ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

The word on the eventual backstop is that Northern Ireland will remain in a single market for goods and that the U.K. as a whole will remain in a customs union.

 

Word is? Is this something May has told you personally or are you going to supply a link? 

 

If true it sounds like the worst deal imaginable, it's the Turkey option!  It's the SM much more than the CU that is necessary for frictionless trade, so what you're describing would cause gridlock at British ports and destroy JIT supply chains, just like the Turkey Bulgaria border. We couldn't make our own trade deals which would enrage the ERG and it would give NI special status which the DUP will reject.

 

It's difficult to see any advantages really, except to limit FOM and lower budgetary contributions (insignificant as they are).

 

In short, I think you're talking shit. Again. 

[Christmas Tree 4725]

1 hour ago, Renton said:

 

Word is? Is this something May has told you personally or are you going to supply a link? 

 

If true it sounds like the worst deal imaginable, it's the Turkey option!  It's the SM much more than the CU that is necessary for frictionless trade, so what you're describing would cause gridlock at British ports and destroy JIT supply chains, just like the Turkey Bulgaria border. We couldn't make our own trade deals which would enrage the ERG and it would give NI special status which the DUP will reject.

 

It's difficult to see any advantages really, except to limit FOM and lower budgetary contributions (insignificant as they are).

 

In short, I think you're talking shit. Again. 

 

https://t.co/NzXSRyVoNE

[Renton 21626]

8 hours ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

https://t.co/NzXSRyVoNE

 

A link from a decent source, thanks.

 

Still, this is an opinion piece with no factual basis, and I would be amazed if it transpired, for the reasons stated. Would you be happy with this? 

[Christmas Tree 4725]

23 minutes ago, Renton said:

 

A link from a decent source, thanks.

 

Still, this is an opinion piece with no factual basis, and I would be amazed if it transpired, for the reasons stated. Would you be happy with this? 

 

Well there is no “factual basis” for what will transpire, just best guesses at this stage.

 

As for being happy with it, the goal right now is to is to get the withdrawal agreement through parliament in time for next March when we leave. If this backstop achieves that then Im happy.

 

The Irish issue will then be settled for a few years and we can finalise the trade deal.

[ewerk 30611]

So 'the word is' is actually just an opinion piece from an academic?

Such a backstop would only satisfy the EU if it were to be implemented on an ongoing basis. Not the temporary solution that Theresa May is trying to push. In fact I can't see how any temporary solution acts as a backstop.

[Christmas Tree 4725]

6 minutes ago, ewerk said:

So 'the word is' is actually just an opinion piece from an academic?

Such a backstop would only satisfy the EU if it were to be implemented on an ongoing basis. Not the temporary solution that Theresa May is trying to push. In fact I can't see how any temporary solution acts as a backstop.

 

But that’s the whole point of the backstop. It buys time to do the trade agreement and gives a few years for a better solution to be found. This keeps the pro Europe rebels happy and the brexiteers and allies May to move forward with the withdrawal bill and leaving in March.

 

The EU will be happy knowing that it’s the default position unless something else is found.

 

Once we’ve actually left next year and we are talking money and trade then I’m sure there will be more wiggle room on how we manage customs.

 

Its a bit of a win win for all but the most extreme brexiteers / leavers.

[ewerk 30611]

Yes, 'unless something else is found'. It is highly unlikely that the solution that cannot be found during the three years between the vote and leaving and the two year transition period will be found a few months after the transition period ends.

[Renton 21626]

2 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

Its a bit of a win win for all but the most extreme brexiteers / leavers.

 

It's really not. We've all lost 900 quid per family, wrecked our international standing, threatened the peace process in Ireland, and made no progress at all towards an unknown outcome with no feasible benefits. And we haven't even left yet. We are all losers.

 

 

[Renton 21626]

Cracking.

 

 

 

 

[Christmas Tree 4725]

1 hour ago, ewerk said:

Yes, 'unless something else is found'. It is highly unlikely that the solution that cannot be found during the three years between the vote and leaving and the two year transition period will be found a few months after the transition period ends.

 

I’m not so sure. The EU have been progressing towards electronic frictionless borders for some time, even with third countries.

 

The Irish government was actively participating in an electronic solution until Vlad took over.

 

I think a lot of politics has got in the way in the hope that this would scupper Brexit and keep is in the EU.

 

This backstop should see us out, we’ll implement as much technology and agreements that will cover 90% of issues and then no doubt resolve the final 10% pretty quickly.

[ewerk 30611]

These are working frictionless solutions with no infrastructure?

No, it isn't politics that's the problem, it's reality.

[Christmas Tree 4725]

1 hour ago, Renton said:

Cracking.

 

 

 

 

 

Perfectly highlights we were right to dismiss claims of an immediate recession and just think how good the boom is going to be when we are out and the deals done, just in time for the general election.

 

Brexit sorted, booming economy, NHS long term deal agreed, wages growing, record employment and Ruth Davidson v Corbyn

 

 

 

[Renton 21626]

2 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

Perfectly highlights we were right to dismiss claims of an immediate recession and just think how good the boom is going to be when we are out and the deals done, just in time for the general election.

 

Brexit sorted, booming economy, NHS long term deal agreed, wages growing, record employment and Ruth Davidson v Corbyn

 

 

 

 

That's what you take from that graph? Why are you happy being worse off?

 

And why are you banging on about Ruth Davidson? Apart from the fact she's not even impressive, she's a lesbians who has been artificially inseminated. Doesn't bother me, but can you ever imagine the Tory membership, average age 72 years, voting her in? You're fucking bonkers. 

 

 

[ewerk 30611]

15 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

Perfectly highlights we were right to dismiss claims of an immediate recession and just think how good the boom is going to be when we are out and the deals done, just in time for the general election.

 

Brexit sorted, booming economy, NHS long term deal agreed, wages growing, record employment and Ruth Davidson v Corbyn

 

 

 

How about reining it in a little and actually debating the facts rather than this childish fingers in the ears approach you seem to be taking?

[Renton 21626]

People who think technology is a solution or replacement for the SM don't understand the nature of the SM. It's a regulatory and legal framework under the auspices of the supranational ECJ, which for some reason May has a problem with (I'm not actually clear why). If UK goods are not under the jurisdiction of the ECJ (where they can be validated at source) they have to be checked at the border.  Apart from this, the WTO's non-discriminatory MFN rules means that any relaxation of our border control has to be made to other third countries. I'm talking Turkey, Belarus, Ukraine and even Russia here. It's not going to happen.

 

The road hauliers association yesterday told Davis that his technological solutions were a non starter. Have a read and educate yourself CT.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/21/tracking-lorries-irish-border-issue-hauliers-david-davis