Europe --- In or Out

[Alex 37598]

The facts have been twisted though. There were loads of anecdotal things regarding giving the Tories / the Establishment a kicking at the time of the vote and you even had lots of the most prominient members of the Leave campaign either saying outright or inferring we'd stay in the Customs Union. Now everyone who voted leave absolutely demanded that meant a hard Brexit. What a load of shit

Edit: In reply to Rayvin

Edited May 15, 2018 by Alex

[PaddockLad 19484]

  On 15/05/2018 at 09:56, Rayvin said:

I do have a question though, I guess. I was just reading that 70% of Labour constituencies voted Leave. How are we supposed to square that one with the party coming out for Remain or Brexit in name only?

 

Maybe the truth is just that Labour is now finally backing the working classes, as unpalatable as that is for the middle classes. Taking an attitude of 'we know what's best' isn't exactly likely to win much backing from a group that feels left behind and ignored.

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I read something by a Labour policy wonk at the weekend which says precisely that. Corbyn won't go against their core working class areas .....but as we saw last week, the MPs for these areas will...

[ewerk 33909]

Given that we still don’t know what Brexit entails means that it’s an absolute certainy that no one knew what it meant at the time.

Corbyn doesn’t have to call for Brexit to be stopped, just the people get to vote on the final deal.

[ewerk 33909]

  On 15/05/2018 at 10:01, PaddockLad said:

 

I read something by a Labour policy wonk at the weekend which says precisely that. Corbyn won't go against their core working class areas .....but as we saw last week, the MPs for these areas will...

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Sometimes it’s the role of politicians to save people from themselves.

[Meenzer 16704]

One key error being made, and I mean across the board here, is painting constituencies as "Leave" (or "Remain") as if it's some kind of binary. Your constituency voted 55% to leave? OK, now you're a "Leave" area, and that's that. Even though there's 45% in the same area who voted to stay, and even though we know the referendum brought out a lot of voters who would normally never bother voting, and who likely won't bother voting in the next regular elections either. Clue: they're not the Remain voters.

 

Even walking around this supposedly "Remain" neighbourhood, I know that 3 in 10 of the adults I pass are Leave voters (or soft remainers/don't-carers who didn't vote, which is almost as bad). Which is useful, since I hate most people. Might as well get a head start on finding reasons for doing so.

[ewerk 33909]

  On 15/05/2018 at 10:04, Meenzer said:

One key error being made, and I mean across the board here, is painting constituencies as "Leave" (or "Remain") as if it's some kind of binary. Your constituency voted 55% to leave? OK, now you're a "Leave" area, and that's that. Even though there's 45% who voted to stay, and even though we know the referendum brought out a lot of voters who would normally never bother voting, and who likely won't bother voting in the next regular elections either. Clue: they're not the Remain voters.

 

Even walking around this supposedly "Remain" neighbourhood, I know that 3 in 10 of the adults I pass are Leave voters (or soft remainers/don't-carers who didn't vote, which is almost as bad). Which is useful, since I hate most people. Might as well get a head start on finding reasons for doing so.

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Very good point.

80% of Labour members want a vote on the final deal. How about Corbyn takes his lead from them?

[Alex 37598]

  On 15/05/2018 at 10:04, Meenzer said:

One key error being made, and I mean across the board here, is painting constituencies as "Leave" (or "Remain") as if it's some kind of binary. Your constituency voted 55% to leave? OK, now you're a "Leave" area, and that's that. Even though there's 45% in the same area who voted to stay, and even though we know the referendum brought out a lot of voters who would normally never bother voting, and who likely won't bother voting in the next regular elections either. Clue: they're not the Remain voters.

 

Even walking around this supposedly "Remain" neighbourhood, I know that 3 in 10 of the adults I pass are Leave voters (or soft remainers/don't-carers who didn't vote, which is almost as bad). Which is useful, since I hate most people. Might as well get a head start on finding reasons for doing so.

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That's spot on and especially relevant since it's one person, one vote rather than FPTP.

[Rayvin 6332]

  On 15/05/2018 at 10:08, ewerk said:

Very good point.

80% of Labour members want a vote on the final deal. How about Corbyn takes his lead from them?

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Corbynite Labour members are, by and large, people like me. The ones he appears to be considering won't turn on him over Brexit. The working class are the ones he's trying to win over, and they, I would guess, are far more skeptical of him.

 

The thing is, he's kind of right about this gamble. The next election will be a straight run off between Labour and the Tories are usual - both backed Brexit, and if both have basically the same message on Brexit, then even in my position of wanting to put 'Remain' as the paramount consideration for my vote, I'm left with having to turn to the Lib Dems - i.e. to waste my vote - or to hold my nose and vote for the least bad option, which is the party of Brexit but with social responsibility.

Edited May 15, 2018 by Rayvin

[Rayvin 6332]

  On 15/05/2018 at 10:04, Meenzer said:

One key error being made, and I mean across the board here, is painting constituencies as "Leave" (or "Remain") as if it's some kind of binary. Your constituency voted 55% to leave? OK, now you're a "Leave" area, and that's that. Even though there's 45% in the same area who voted to stay, and even though we know the referendum brought out a lot of voters who would normally never bother voting, and who likely won't bother voting in the next regular elections either. Clue: they're not the Remain voters.

 

Even walking around this supposedly "Remain" neighbourhood, I know that 3 in 10 of the adults I pass are Leave voters (or soft remainers/don't-carers who didn't vote, which is almost as bad). Which is useful, since I hate most people. Might as well get a head start on finding reasons for doing so.

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It is a good point, but Momentum and Corbyn must figure that they can get these people out to vote again if they just stay on message for Brexit.

[ewerk 33909]

  On 15/05/2018 at 10:13, Rayvin said:

 

Corbynite Labour members are, by and large, people like me. The ones he appears to be considering won't turn on him over Brexit. The working class are the ones he's trying to win over, and they, I would guess, are far more skeptical of him.

 

The thing is, he's kind of right about this gamble. The next election will be a straight run off between Labour and the Tories are usual - both backed Brexit, and if both have basically the same message on Brexit, then even in my position of wanting to put 'Remain' as the paramount consideration for my vote, I'm left with having to turn to the Lib Dems - i.e. to waste my vote - or to hold my nose and vote for the least bad option, which is the party of Brexit but with social responsibility.

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Not doing all he politically can to avoid a hard Brexit would be a dereliction of economic and, to a lesser extent, social responsibility. Despite my previous comments I don’t think I could blame anyone abandoning Labour under those circumstances.

You could always vote for that shiny new centre left party.  

[Rayvin 6332]

The shiny new centre left party will only split the left and ensure the Tories. I could stomach voting for it once, if it killed off Brexit, but the truth is it would have to eat into the Tory vote more than Labour's and can you really see that happening?

[ewerk 33909]

I wasn’t being entirely serious. I’m not convinced it will do much good tbh. We do need more parties involved in UK politics but that doesn’t work so well with FPTP.

Edited May 15, 2018 by ewerk

[Rayvin 6332]

I think we're fucked now tbh. They'll find a way past the GFA somehow.

 

For all CT's complaining about Remoaners, we've actually achieved fuck all in influencing the outcome of this. The Tories and Labour are united in wanting to deliver what looks like a pretty hard Brexit, and the only thing threatening it is an administrative technicality.

 

We're just fucked.

[ewerk 33909]

The only way past the GFA is no deal.

I can’t see that happening. Doesn’t mean it won’t though.

[Alex 37598]

  On 15/05/2018 at 10:31, Rayvin said:

I think we're fucked now tbh. They'll find a way past the GFA somehow.

 

For all CT's complaining about Remoaners, we've actually achieved fuck all in influencing the outcome of this. The Tories and Labour are united in wanting to deliver what looks like a pretty hard Brexit, and the only thing threatening it is an administrative technicality.

 

We're just fucked.

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It's looking increasingly likely imo

[Renton 24350]

  On 15/05/2018 at 10:31, Rayvin said:

I think we're fucked now tbh. They'll find a way past the GFA somehow.

 

For all CT's complaining about Remoaners, we've actually achieved fuck all in influencing the outcome of this. The Tories and Labour are united in wanting to deliver what looks like a pretty hard Brexit, and the only thing threatening it is an administrative technicality.

 

We're just fucked.

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Pay attention to what's happening. For all the noise they make, the ERG are a parliamentary irrelevance. Brexit will collapse in the next 6 weeks or 4 months longest. No deal is the least likely option, but virtually everyone knows it's suicide. Everyone means the lords, nearly all the commons, the civil service, industry, Scotland, NI, and the EU.

 

I'm not saying it won't happen, but some form of BINO is more likely. Both May and Corbyn will ultimately be hoisted on their own petards, and I can't fucking wait.

[Rayvin 6332]

I dread to think what the situation for the working class is going to look like. Not only is Brexit a 'shooting yourself in the foot' moment for them, but they're going to open up a divide between them and the left leaning middle - especially given that they're sitting on the moderate to far right, politically. Maybe we should just let them have it.

[Rayvin 6332]

  On 15/05/2018 at 10:48, Renton said:

 

Pay attention to what's happening. For all the noise they make, the ERG are a parliamentary irrelevance. Brexit will collapse in the next 6 weeks or 4 months longest. No deal is the least likely option, but virtually everyone knows it's suicide. Everyone means the lords, nearly all the commons, the civil service, industry, Scotland, NI, and the EU.

 

I'm not saying it won't happen, but some form of BINO is more likely. Both May and Corbyn will ultimately be hoisted on their own petards, and I can't fucking wait.

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I would love to believe this but I just can't see how the Tories would willingly walk into that. Corbyn has very little to lose, so his position makes a certain kind of sense - but the Tories have to make this work. And they will, somehow.

[Renton 24350]

  On 15/05/2018 at 10:50, Rayvin said:

 

I would love to believe this but I just can't see how the Tories would willingly walk into that. Corbyn has very little to lose, so his position makes a certain kind of sense - but the Tories have to make this work. And they will, somehow.

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They absolutely won't. I predicted NI was an insoluble problem months ago, long before the MSM picked up on it. I've done loads of personal research on it, including reading primary EU documentation. I'm probably better informed than most politicians, certainly. There is no solution except staying in both CU and SM. I've seen nothing to make me change my mind. Nothing at all. 

 

Tell me, how do you think the GFA can be maintained with a hard Brexit? If the GFA is broken, what do you think the consequences would be? 

[Rayvin 6332]

  On 15/05/2018 at 11:01, Renton said:

 

They absolutely won't. I predicted NI was an insoluble problem months ago, long before the MSM picked up on it. I've done loads of personal research on it, including reading primary EU documentation. I'm probably better informed than most politicians, certainly. There is no solution except staying in both CU and SM. I've seen nothing to make me change my mind. Nothing at all. 

 

Tell me, how do you think the GFA can be maintained with a hard Brexit? If the GFA is broken, what do you think the consequences would be? 

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I really don't know, but maybe this Max Fac option is actually feasible in some way. Maybe the GFA can be renegotiated? I just can't see what the Tories gain by blindly lumbering towards this. If they had no solution, surely we'd be hearing narratives coming out about the benefits of the single market, and how impossible to solve the Ireland issue is. Instead all we are seeing is confidence that it will be resolved.

[Renton 24350]

  On 15/05/2018 at 11:13, Rayvin said:

 

I really don't know, but maybe this Max Fac option is actually feasible in some way. Maybe the GFA can be renegotiated? I just can't see what the Tories gain by blindly lumbering towards this. If they had no solution, surely we'd be hearing narratives coming out about the benefits of the single market, and how impossible to solve the Ireland issue is. Instead all we are seeing is confidence that it will be resolved.

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May's an idiot kicking the can down the road. There is a possibility they want to crash the economy and blame the EU, but I doubt it. I think incompetence is more likely than malevolence in her case. I might be wrong, but in any case she is not in control. 

[Rayvin 6332]

As much as we're used to saying that the government are incompetent, you're talking about a level of incompetence that could only possibly be described as staggering. Even if May herself doesn't understand the situation, the notion that there aren't loads of underlings running around working everything out is a jump too far for me.

 

If it is impossible, she must know that by now. That she continues to believe in a positive outcome, suggests to me that the government must have an angle.

[Renton 24350]

  On 15/05/2018 at 11:25, Rayvin said:

As much as we're used to saying that the government are incompetent, you're talking about a level of incompetence that could only possibly be described as staggering. Even if May herself doesn't understand the situation, the notion that there aren't loads of underlings running around working everything out is a jump too far for me.

 

If it is impossible, she must know that by now. That she continues to believe in a positive outcome, suggests to me that the government must have an angle.

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The house is on fire and she's locked herself in. She's chosen to slowly burn alive rather than jump to her death. That's all it is. 

[Rayvin 6332]

What is the downside to May, apart from resigning, of coming out and saying that the whole thing is totally impossible?

 

What can the Tories possibly do to her?

[ewerk 33909]

It’s electoral suicide?