Europe --- In or Out

[ewerk 31596]

I wouldn’t class you as the average European though  Try conveying the opinion of the German Christmas Tree but 50% more intelligent.

Edited March 29, 2018 by ewerk

[ewerk 31596]

It hasn't been a good day for Barry.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43710728

[Renton 22429]

So, there is a rumour on the wind that Nissan Sunderland is going to be announced as a "planned closure" after 2022 shortly. I have no idea as to the source or veracity of this rumour. In a way I would hope it's true as it may focus government minds to stay in the SM and CU and the closure will therefore be prevented. On the other hand if May sticks with her red lines it would be simply catastrophic for the north east, as demonstrated by the government's own economic analysis. There's a very gloomy article on the BBC today about the challenges of Brexit to the automotive industry as it happens, none of it is good. There is simply no positive upshot. 

 

But I'd like to ask @Christmas Tree  if hypothetically this happens if he will admit he was wrong to back Brexit? And furthermore, even if it doesn't happen, why he felt the risk, which he acknowledged was real at the time, was warranted? Yeah, you'll say you've said it all before, but you really haven't. Now I know you're an intellectual heavyweight, I think you owe it to clarify to us other than we're going to get a "cracking deal".

[ewerk 31596]

Maybe the people who run Nissan realise that whatever Theresa May told them to keep them here was bullshit?

[Renton 22429]

4 minutes ago, ewerk said:

Maybe the people who run Nissan realise that whatever Theresa May told them to keep them here was bullshit?

 

This is it. If they announce they are staying with significant investment (possible), it's indicative they are confident we are staying in the SM and CU, for whatever reason. If we don't have BINO they are gone, simple as that. JIT manufacturing, export tariffs, and country of origin rules for export make it inevitable. They're footloose companies whose sole purpose is to make profit. As they are not UK owned, they have no loyalty. It's fucking obvious. 

[Christmas Tree 4920]

24 minutes ago, Renton said:

So, there is a rumour on the wind that Nissan Sunderland is going to be announced as a "planned closure" after 2022 shortly. I have no idea as to the source or veracity of this rumour. In a way I would hope it's true as it may focus government minds to stay in the SM and CU and the closure will therefore be prevented. On the other hand if May sticks with her red lines it would be simply catastrophic for the north east, as demonstrated by the government's own economic analysis. There's a very gloomy article on the BBC today about the challenges of Brexit to the automotive industry as it happens, none of it is good. There is simply no positive upshot. 

 

But I'd like to ask @Christmas Tree  if hypothetically this happens if he will admit he was wrong to back Brexit? And furthermore, even if it doesn't happen, why he felt the risk, which he acknowledged was real at the time, was warranted? Yeah, you'll say you've said it all before, but you really haven't. Now I know you're an intellectual heavyweight, I think you owe it to clarify to us other than we're going to get a "cracking deal".

 

Ford, Vauxhall and Nissan have all publicly stated they will be here after Brexit.

 

Yesterday we had record trade figures with exports rising 10% in the last 12 months.

 

HSBC say that exports this year will be the biggest growth since 2011.

 

The U.K. manufacturing industry posts record profitability results and announces positive outlook from members.

 

The immediate recession following a vote to leave never happened.

 

The punishment budget following a vote to leave never happened.

 

But yes, let’s have a hyperthetical discussion based on your latest UNSOURCED neurotic adventure.

[ewerk 31596]

And despite all that we have the weakest GDP growth among the G7?

Edited April 12, 2018 by ewerk

[Renton 22429]

12 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

Ford, Vauxhall and Nissan have all publicly stated they will be here after Brexit. Link me where Nissan stated this. 

 

Yesterday we had record trade figures with exports rising 10% in the last 12 months. Yet are performing worst in growth of G7, and all EU28, including Italy and Greece.

 

HSBC say that exports this year will be the biggest growth since 2011. So what? Pound has fallen, world economy is booming, and we haven't left yet.

 

The U.K. manufacturing industry posts record profitability results and announces positive outlook from members. See above. Most companies are not positive about Brexit though.

 

The immediate recession following a vote to leave never happened. Not technically, although we went from best to worst performing economy overnight.

 

The punishment budget following a vote to leave never happened. Osbourne lied. Wow. 

 

But yes, let’s have a hyperthetical discussion based on your latest UNSOURCED neurotic adventure.

 

What is the relevance of the above to my query?

 

I'll ask again. If Nissan announces closure due to Brexit, would you still support it? If the government forecasts are right for the NE economy, would you still support it. Two simple yes or no questions there for you.

Edited April 12, 2018 by Renton

[Christmas Tree 4920]

10 minutes ago, ewerk said:

And despite all that we have the weakest GDP growth among the G7?

 

Understandable given all the scare tactics used by Remainers pre and post Brexit.

[Alex 35935]

9 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

Ford, Vauxhall and Nissan have all publicly stated they will be here after Brexit.

 

Thing is, they can publicly state one thing then annouce they'll leave the next. It's all dependent on that access to the single market and that all depends on what we're willing to concede in negotiations and so on. I'm not saying they will leave and I obviously hope that's not the case but if there's any negative impact on their business EU countries will be queueing up with offers to move them to their own countries at little or no cost. We don't know what was promised to Nissan, for example, in the immediate aftermath of the leave vote because (rather shamefully I think) the government wouldn't tell anyone but they're only staying if those promises continue to be fulfilled.

[Alex 35935]

2 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

Understandable given all the scare tactics used by Remainers pre and post Brexit.

[Renton 22429]

1 minute ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

Understandable given all the scare tactics used by Remainers pre and post Brexit.

 

Of course, Remainers' fault, not Brexit 

[Alex 35935]

You have to hand it to him like, arguing project fear is a self-fulfilling prophecy whilst simulataneously saying it's without basis in fact

[Renton 22429]

3 minutes ago, Alex said:

Thing is, they can publicly state one thing then annouce they'll leave the next. It's all dependent on that access to the single market and that all depends on what we're willing to concede in negotiations and so on. I'm not saying they will leave and I obviously hope that's not the case but if there's any negative impact on their business EU countries will be queueing up with offers to move them to their own countries at little or no cost. We don't know what was promised to Nissan, for example, in the immediate aftermath of the leave vote because (rather shamefully I think) the government wouldn't tell anyone but they're only staying if those promises continue to be fulfilled.

 

It's difficult to think of any upside though. I'm genuinely interested in the psychology behind the Sunderland vote. All we've heard from our resident Mackem is a vague anecdote about how polish workers sleeping 17 to a room have destroyed the ship building industry in Jarrow. But the proportion of EU nationals in the NE is something like 1.8%. Compare that to remain voting London, with 14% EU nationals. Bizarre. 

[ewerk 31596]

29 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

Understandable given all the scare tactics used by Remainers pre and post Brexit.

 Growth has fallen as a result of remainders ‘talking Britain down’?

[Alex 35935]

2 minutes ago, ewerk said:

 Growth has fallen as a result of remainders ‘talking Britain down’?

We're only doing as well as we are because of the likes of JRM bringing up Agincourt now and again

[Meenzer 15871]

4 minutes ago, Alex said:

We're only doing as well as we are because of the likes of JRM bringing up Agincourt now and again

 

Don't forget John Redwood threatening companies who dare to suggest that Brexit might leave them worse off

[Christmas Tree 4920]

33 minutes ago, Renton said:

 

It's difficult to think of any upside though. I'm genuinely interested in the psychology behind the Sunderland vote. All we've heard from our resident Mackem is a vague anecdote about how polish workers sleeping 17 to a room have destroyed the ship building industry in Jarrow. But the proportion of EU nationals in the NE is something like 1.8%. Compare that to remain voting London, with 14% EU nationals. Bizarre. 

 

Maybe it was the14% what won it

Edited April 12, 2018 by Christmas Tree

[Renton 22429]

1 minute ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

Maybe it was the14% what won it

 

 

EU nationals couldn't vote in the referendum. Fucking hell. 

[Isegrim 10017]

2 hours ago, Renton said:

 

 

EU nationals couldn't vote in the referendum. Fucking hell. 

I am not sure if you got his point.

 

I doubt that Sunderland voters lost any sleep about the large amount (of working and tax paying, benefits securing) EU nationals in the City though...

[Isegrim 10017]

And what would most likely have won it if British expats living and working abroad for more than 15 years would have been eligible to vote.

 

A friend of mine who really is English through and through is considering of giving up his soon to be (and ever could have been) blue passport because he wasn’t allowed to vote.

[Renton 22429]

7 minutes ago, Isegrim said:

I am not sure if you got his point.

 

I doubt that Sunderland voters lost any sleep about the large amount (of working and tax paying, benefits securing) EU nationals in the City though...

 

I thought his point was London voted remain because it has a high proportion of EU citizens, who CT thought could vote in the referendum. Not sure how it can be taken any other way, what do you think he meant? 

[Renton 22429]

5 minutes ago, Isegrim said:

And what would most likely have won it if British expats living and working abroad for more than 15 years would have been eligible to vote.

 

A friend of mine who really is English through and through is considering of giving up his soon to be (and ever could have been) blue passport because he wasn’t allowed to vote.

 

Yep, the whole referendum was corrupt. Double whammy that EU nationals in the EU couldn't vote (except the Irish iirc), and long-term expats couldn't vote. Makes no sense to exclude both those groups. Also:

16 to 18 year olds couldn't vote, despite being over 18 by the time we exit.

No consideration of majorities voting to remain in constituent countries, even though NI and Scotland most adversely affected.

No requirement for a super majority, as is normal for constitutional change of this magnitude.

 

The best ever PM sure fucked it up. 

[Isegrim 10017]

45 minutes ago, Renton said:

 

I thought his point was London voted remain because it has a high proportion of EU citizens, who CT thought could vote in the referendum. Not sure how it can be taken any other way, what do you think he meant? 

I think his point was that the high amount of EU nationals living in (parts of) the UK made people voting against immigration... err ... for xenophobia... err for breakfast, I mean Brexit 

[Renton 22429]

4 minutes ago, Isegrim said:

I think his point was that the high amount of EU nationals living in (parts of) the UK made people voting against immigration... err ... for xenophobia... err for breakfast, I mean Brexit 

 

Yeah, but my prior point was that the data showed the opposite.

 

Or to clarify, CT is so clueless about Brexit he actually thought that EU nationals had the vote in the referendum. Never underestimate his rank stupidity.