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Europe --- In or Out


Christmas Tree
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The goal posts have moved now though. Apparently it's not about economics, and us, and our kids, all being worse off is a small price to pay for taking back control. Don't remember that written on the side of the bus mind. 

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How could anyone be stupid enough to possibly thing that a country of 60million people would stand a chance against a trade bloc of 500million people, from an economic perspective.

 

Fucking ludicrous.

 

27 minutes ago, Renton said:

The goal posts have moved now though. Apparently it's not about economics, and us, and our kids, all being worse off is a small price to pay for taking back control. Don't remember that written on the side of the bus mind. 

 

This for me is the unwillingness to accept being wrong. Moving goalposts are always a sign of that.

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2 hours ago, ewerk said:

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42315280

 

So there you are, CT. It's basically impossible for us to benefit economically outside the EU. And yes, we need them more than they need us.

 

More forecasts that will no doubt turn to shit just like the last ones. We’ll be fine. 

 

And a few billion dip dip in foreign investment will not be noticed when Corbyn slaps his 500 billion in the table.

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Just now, Christmas Tree said:

 

More forecasts that will no doubt turn to shit just like the last ones. We’ll be fine. 

 

 

So just ignore all forecasts, evidence and experts and rely on promises based on absolutely nothing at all? Does that sound like a responsible way to behave?

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5 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

More forecasts that will no doubt turn to shit just like the last ones. We’ll be fine. 

 

And a few billion dip dip in foreign investment will not be noticed when Corbyn slaps his 500 billion in the table.

 

calm down dear, it's just the uk trying to negotiate a divorce with its biggest trading partner. no biggie 

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18 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

More forecasts that will no doubt turn to shit just like the last ones. We’ll be fine. 

 

And a few billion dip dip in foreign investment will not be noticed when Corbyn slaps his 500 billion in the table.

 

We won't be fine. You voted for a worse future for your children. Well done. 

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8 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

More forecasts that will no doubt turn to shit just like the last ones. We’ll be fine. 

 

And a few billion dip dip in foreign investment will not be noticed when Corbyn slaps his 500 billion in the table.

 

What are you on about? How can you say the forecasts are wrong when the the event of interest, Brexit, hasn't happened yet? 

 

I've been fairly obsessive in my reading around Brexit and have come to the following conclusions.

1) There are numerous forecasts that have been made using the best methodology and assumptions available. This includes one by our treasury, one by the EU, and numerous economic studies by academics and businesses. ALL of them are negative in virtually ALL scenarios.

2) I have read only one exception to this, by Patrick Minford, sponsored by a Brexit campaign group. He predicted positive impact to our GDP only if we unilaterally abolished tariffs. He admitted the consequence of this would be to destroy agriculture and manufacturing. Minford is not held in high regard by economists and his study was widely derided. In any case, only a nutcase would want the outcomes he describes, especially for the North.

3) It is simply inconceivable that DExEU have not conducted these impact assessments. It is obvious Davis is lying about their non existence. Surely even you CT can grasp the implications of this.

 

I utilise economic models daily in my job. They're not perfect, and they can give out spurious results. However, I have to say that never in my professional career have I observed several independent economic models that utilised the full breadth of sensitivity analysis fail to predict the correct direction of results. It's a fact Brexit has already made us poorer financially and will continue to do so in the future. Then there is the opportunity cost of it. We've become caught in a cycle where no meaningful parliamentary work can be done whilst we desperately try to mitigate against this nonsense. 

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I'm more than happy to talk about Corbyn Parky, I spent ages last week explaining what I think Labour's current strategy is for one thing.

 

If I turn out to be wrong, I'm very comfortable saying so ;)

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43 minutes ago, ewerk said:

 

So just ignore all forecasts, evidence and experts and rely on promises based on absolutely nothing at all? Does that sound like a responsible way to behave?

 

The reasonable way to behave is to listen to everything and make your mind up.

 

What about the millions who voted remain because Osborne and the establishment told them of the punishment budget etc.

 

Its not going to lead to hell and fury. Seems likely we will continue to trade pretty much as before with the EU. They’ll buy Scottish whisky and we’ll buy French wines. The bonus is we will be able to add to that trade with India etc.

 

We’ll also be able to stay part of the bits of the EU that benefit us whether security or sciences.

 

And we’ll have a needs driven immigration system rather than an open door.

 

And Billions extra a year to spend on public services.

 

We are on course for all of the above so so far, Im pretty happy with my decision.

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Tell you what, if we dont proceed to phase 2 because of Davis's loose talk on the Marr show (which, incidentally showed him once again  to be a lying duplicit bastard), surely he will have to go? When did parliamentary standards become so low that this can happen? 

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Just now, Christmas Tree said:

 

The reasonable way to behave is to listen to everything and make your mind up.

 

What about the millions who voted remain because Osborne and the establishment told them of the punishment budget etc.

 

Its not going to lead to hell and fury. Seems likely we will continue to trade pretty much as before with the EU. They’ll buy Scottish whisky and we’ll buy French wines. The bonus is we will be able to add to that trade with India etc.

 

We’ll also be able to stay part of the bits of the EU that benefit us whether security or sciences.

 

And we’ll have a needs driven immigration system rather than an open door.

 

And Billions extra a year to spend on public services.

 

We are on course for all of the above so so far, Im pretty happy with my decision.

 

Explain to me in detail how we're on course for any of the above. With evidence.

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8 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

I'm more than happy to talk about Corbyn Parky, I spent ages last week explaining what I think Labour's current strategy is for one thing.

 

If I turn out to be wrong, I'm very comfortable saying so ;)

He hasn't covered his eurosceptic tracks very well - all I'm saying.

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2 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

The reasonable way to behave is to listen to everything and make your mind up.

 

What about the millions who voted remain because Osborne and the establishment told them of the punishment budget etc.

 

Its not going to lead to hell and fury. Seems likely we will continue to trade pretty much as before with the EU. They’ll buy Scottish whisky and we’ll buy French wines. The bonus is we will be able to add to that trade with India etc.

 

We’ll also be able to stay part of the bits of the EU that benefit us whether security or sciences.

 

And we’ll have a needs driven immigration system rather than an open door.

 

And Billions extra a year to spend on public services.

 

We are on course for all of the above so so far, Im pretty happy with my decision.

 

:lol:

 

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