Europe --- In or Out

[Christmas Tree 4729]

4 hours ago, Renton said:

I've had a bit of spare time this weekend doing child care duties (neglecting the kids basically) and reread some of this thread.

 

CT confidently predicted we would have a cracking deal with the EU within 12 months of the vote (BMWs and prosecco) and also that the EU would have disintegrated by now.

 

Not that surprising. But what really is interesting is that we all, CT included, thought we'd stay in the SM. Just goes to show how the debate has been changed, we've all been screwed over. 

 

Lol

 

No links I see.

 

Im pretty sure I didn’t say the EU would disintegrate by now, in fact a quick search in this thread shows the only person using that word about the EU is YOU last year.

 

As for the rest I think I talked about a deal within 12 months of the negotiations and “access” to the single market.

 

As for where we are now, I still think a deal will be done.

[ewerk 30647]

Because it’s all been going swimmingly so far.

[Renton 21640]

1 hour ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

Lol

 

No links I see.

 

Im pretty sure I didn’t say the EU would disintegrate by now, in fact a quick search in this thread shows the only person using that word about the EU is YOU last year.

 

As for the rest I think I talked about a deal within 12 months of the negotiations and “access” to the single market.

 

As for where we are now, I still think a deal will be done.

 

No links because frankly I can't be arsed. It's in this very thread though, somewhere in the 40s I think. A deal will be sown up within 12 months and the UK contagion will cause the EU to collapse. How about you make it worthwhile for me to dredge up your exact quotes? 20 quid for BRF maybe? I read this this morning btw so I know in right, no skin off my nose. Accept the bet? Yes or no? 

Edited October 8, 2017 by Renton

[Renton 21640]

Alright CT, because your family is officially  impoverished, this is what you said:

 

 

"I personally think EU is finished in current format and will have to change quite dramatically to stave off contagion.

 

And yes I think they will come around to a free trading agreement with us".

 

 So fair enough m you didn't say the EU will collapse, but you said it would if it didn't change "dramatically". But it hasn't changed at all has it, and it certainly isn't finished. You still believe the latter quote against all evidence to the contrary so I'll leave that there for now. However, your 12 month deadline looks a tad optimistic (And yes, you said 12 months in another post if you insist I drag that up too).

[Christmas Tree 4729]

2 hours ago, Renton said:

Alright CT, because your family is officially  impoverished, this is what you said:

 

 

"I personally think EU is finished in current format and will have to change quite dramatically to stave off contagion.

 

And yes I think they will come around to a free trading agreement with us".

 

 So fair enough m you didn't say the EU will collapse, but you said it would if it didn't change "dramatically". But it hasn't changed at all has it, and it certainly isn't finished. You still believe the latter quote against all evidence to the contrary so I'll leave that there for now. However, your 12 month deadline looks a tad optimistic (And yes, you said 12 months in another post if you insist I drag that up too).

 

So actually the only person who mentioned the EU disintegrating was you

 

I wouldn’t waste your time dredging anything else up, I’m only here to chew the fat. It will either work or it won’t and we’ll know for sure one day.

[Renton 21640]

44 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

So actually the only person who mentioned the EU disintegrating was you

 

I wouldn’t waste your time dredging anything else up, I’m only here to chew the fat. It will either work or it won’t and we’ll know for sure one day.

 

Fucking bizarre. Can you actually read?

 

This is what you said:

 

 

"I personally think EU is finished". I didn't say that, you did you plum. 

Edited October 8, 2017 by Renton

[Christmas Tree 4729]

5 hours ago, Renton said:

 

Fucking bizarre. Can you actually read?

 

This is what you said:

 

 

"I personally think EU is finished". I didn't say that, you did you plum. 

 

I can you can’t. YOU were the only one who used the word disintegrate about the EU last year.

 

As for my comment, thinking the EU would need to change or fall apart wasn’t such a strange view given Brexit, Le Pen and the disgruntlement in Germany and other countries.

[Dr Gloom 21959]

Yes, the EU has been so awful for Germany, the smart money was in them facilitating its end.

[Renton 21640]

4 hours ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

I can you can’t. YOU were the only one who used the word disintegrate about the EU last year.

 

As for my comment, thinking the EU would need to change or fall apart wasn’t such a strange view given Brexit, Le Pen and the disgruntlement in Germany and other countries.

 

Okay, I provided you with a link that where you predicted the EU was finished. Can you not even admit you were wrong?

 

Now, provide me with a link where I day the EU would disintegrate. You can't because I never said it, I only made the point that this is what many brexiters wanted.

 

You're a typical Brexiter, you're fundamentally dishonest.

[Rayvin 5223]

The migrant crisis primarily affected Germany. There's definitely an undercurrent of the same issues we have, in Germany - hence the AFD getting into parliament.

 

CT's pre-referendum position wasn't totally illogical - I can see how we could have become a contagion if other countries had lost control to hardcore rightwing movements in the same way that we did. The US certainly fell into line with this.

 

Obviously though, it is now safe to say that this position is incorrect. I can't recall personally if CT said this stuff would happen, but many, many Brexiters did. And as with what Renton has said, I've seen none of them prepared to face up to the fact that they've been wrong about any aspect of this, to date.

[Alex 35105]

5 hours ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

I can you can’t. YOU were the only one who used the word disintegrate about the EU last year.

 

As for my comment, thinking the EU would need to change or fall apart wasn’t such a strange view given Brexit, Le Pen and the disgruntlement in Germany and other countries.

I have to agree here. There's nothing strange about your being wrong.

[Christmas Tree 4729]

2 hours ago, Rayvin said:

The migrant crisis primarily affected Germany. There's definitely an undercurrent of the same issues we have, in Germany - hence the AFD getting into parliament.

 

CT's pre-referendum position wasn't totally illogical - I can see how we could have become a contagion if other countries had lost control to hardcore rightwing movements in the same way that we did. The US certainly fell into line with this.

 

Obviously though, it is now safe to say that this position is incorrect. I can't recall personally if CT said this stuff would happen, but many, many Brexiters did. And as with what Renton has said, I've seen none of them prepared to face up to the fact that they've been wrong about any aspect of this, to date.

 

It was a pretty mainstream view that contagion could kick in, especially if Le Pen had got in.

 

While it hasn’t happened yet and may not, the rise of unrest across the EU hasn’t gone away and may indeed lead to the EU having to adapt. 

 

Macron has bought some time in France, but should he fail (as others have), in his big plans then France could soon be right back in the melting pot.

[Christmas Tree 4729]

1 hour ago, Alex said:

I have to agree here. There's nothing strange about your being wrong.

 

For a moment.....

[Rayvin 5223]

Just now, Christmas Tree said:

 

It was a pretty mainstream view that contagion could kick in, especially if Le Pen had got in.

 

While it hasn’t happened yet and may not, the rise of unrest across the EU hasn’t gone away and may indeed lead to the EU having to adapt. 

 

Macron has bought some time in France, but should he fail (as others have), in his big plans then France could soon be right back in the melting pot.

 

Agree on Macron. He's as unpopular now I expected he would be because he's another Neoliberal centrist with no solutions whatsoever. France has kicked the can down the line but will eventually need to face the same option as the UK.

[Alex 35105]

Macron was less odious than Le Penn whereas Hilary Clinton somehow manages to be more odious than Trump (or how Trump appeared last autumn at least) but it was a failrly similar disillusionment with neo-liberalism that got to the point where it was even a contest. I think you're correct re: Macron and I was talking to a French lad I know who was back over here for a mutual friend's wedding in May and he was predicting that Macron wouldn't deliver anything other than more of the same shit and would soon become pretty unpopular.

[Dr Gloom 21959]

1 hour ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

It was a pretty mainstream view that contagion could kick in, especially if Le Pen had got in.

 

While it hasn’t happened yet and may not, the rise of unrest across the EU hasn’t gone away and may indeed lead to the EU having to adapt. 

 

Macron has bought some time in France, but should he fail (as others have), in his big plans then France could soon be right back in the melting pot.

 

The french electoral system with two rounds of voting will always deny a le pen victory.

[Rayvin 5223]

He's definitely better than Le Penne, although it's interesting how 'left wing' she was on almost every issue except immigration. There's a blurring of the lines going on now and it's making me concerned tbh. Hopefully the establishment in France moves to moderate left instead of right though - that might nip it in the bud.

[Dr Gloom 21959]

Also, while leaving the EU might be appealing to some in France, there is very little appetite to return to the franc and see savings, house prices etc crash. She'll never get in as long as that is a flagship policy 

[Rayvin 5223]

Popularity already falling, so Alex's friend is correct it would seem:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/27/french-president-macrons-popularity-slumps-again

Edited October 9, 2017 by Rayvin

[Dr Gloom 21959]

1 minute ago, Rayvin said:

He's definitely better than Le Penne, although it's interesting how 'left wing' she was on almost every issue except immigration. There's a blurring of the lines going on now and it's making me concerned tbh. Hopefully the establishment in France moves to moderate left instead of right though - that might nip it in the bud.

 

They just evicted Hollande so don't hold your breath. I think melenchon would have beaten le pen had the two of them made it to the run off. France is much more left wing than the UK, generally a much more conservative place 

[Rayvin 5223]

Just now, Dr Gloom said:

 

They just evicted Hollande so don't hold your breath. I think melenchon would have beaten le pen had the two of them made it to the run off. France is much more left wing than the UK, generally a much more conservative place 

 

This is true, and I'm in agreement with you - not really worried about La Penne. Having said that though, a raft of socially left wing policies but also a hardline stance on immigration is something that arguably, would tick every working class box there is.

 

I think Macron was the safest bet to win last time out - Melenchon would have been run far closer by La Penne - but France needs to tackle this in the same way we do. Seems to me that, at the moment, the whole Western world is waiting for someone to 'go first' to solve this.

[Dr Gloom 21959]

13 minutes ago, Alex said:

Macron was less odious than Le Penn whereas Hilary Clinton somehow manages to be more odious than Trump (or how Trump appeared last autumn at least) but it was a failrly similar disillusionment with neo-liberalism that got to the point where it was even a contest. I think you're correct re: Macron and I was talking to a French lad I know who was back over here for a mutual friend's wedding in May and he was predicting that Macron wouldn't deliver anything other than more of the same shit and would soon become pretty unpopular.

 

He's a former investment banker. The only thing disruptive about him was he didn't represent one of the traditional parties but he's about as establishment elite as you get. 

[Alex 35105]

1 hour ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

It was a pretty mainstream view that contagion could kick in, especially if Le Pen had got in.

 

While it hasn’t happened yet and may not, the rise of unrest across the EU hasn’t gone away and may indeed lead to the EU having to adapt. 

 

Macron has bought some time in France,/ but should he fail (as others have), in his big plans then France could soon be right back in the melting pot.

Was it a mainstream view outwith Britiain though? I ask because whereas I think the EU's always been viewed with a great deal more scepticism here than in the likes of France, Germany etc. Poiliticians and a willing press here have for ages used the EU on which to blame things which are actually down to the UK's own government. I might be wrong but that sort of scapegoating doesn't seem as likely in the other big players in the EU. tl:dr: We're the only knackers who think going it alone is a better option

[Alex 35105]

1 minute ago, Dr Gloom said:

 

He's a former investment banker. The only thing disruptive about him was he didn't represent one of the traditional parties but he's about as establishment elite as you get. 

Yeah I was aware of that and his lack of anything remotely revolutionary. The lad I was on about was describing it as the way most (or at least a lot of people) thought as opposed to him making a bold prediction.

As an aside regarding contagion and the EU breaking up, it's probably a massive factor that of the main EU players we're the only ones (I think) with wage stagnation, fall in the cost of living and extreme austerity. All of which made it an even better call by Just call me cunt/Dave

[Park Life 71]

Just cook up a new party and put an ex-Rothschild banker in charge. Jesus wept.