Europe --- In or Out

[Renton 21640]

22 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:

there goes the pink paper, talking down brexit again instead of letting the lion roar. 

 

‘Two-thirds’ of Hammond’s £26bn Budget war chest faces wipeout

 

Philip Hammond is facing what officials describe as “a bloodbath” in the public finances in his Budget next month as weak economic forecasts derail the government’s plans.

 

As much as two-thirds of the £26bn of headroom in the public finances that the chancellor created last year as a buffer for the economy through the Brexit period is likely to be wiped out after the government’s fiscal watchdog concludes its forecasts for growth have been too optimistic.

 

The Office for Budget Responsibility will publish on Tuesday a new analysis suggesting it has persistently over-estimated Britain’s productivity over the past seven years and will give a broad hint that it will rectify the situation with a more pessimistic Budget forecast. Slower growth in the forecast will limit deficit reduction and cut the size of the war chest that Mr Hammond put aside to smooth the Brexit transition.

 

This leaves him in an awkward position politically, since he is under increasing pressure to end the austerity cap on public pay, lower the burden of debt on students and build houses.

 

The OBR has already estimated that Brexit will hit the public finances to the tune of £15bn a year by 2020-21. Theresa May’s government, including the Eurosceptic ministers Boris Johnson, David Davis and Liam Fox, has not disputed these estimates.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/768843e8-a839-11e7-93c5-648314d2c72c

 

Wow BAU, eh @Christmas Tree ?

 

Please free to counter with a positive Brexit story.

[Rayvin 5223]

More austerity then. I mean, the Tories have literally nowhere to go here. They have to go for more austerity, which is the prime reason we're leaving the EU anyway. So they'll hammer services, the NHS, the poor and the vulnerable, because it's the only way to make Brexit stick. It's the reckoning that all those who voted for Brexit deserve in some senses. Exactly what they were warned would happen by none other than George fucking Osborne.

 

This will inevitably mean Labour will get in. 

[Renton 21640]

5 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

More austerity then. I mean, the Tories have literally nowhere to go here. They have to go for more austerity, which is the prime reason we're leaving the EU anyway. So they'll hammer services, the NHS, the poor and the vulnerable, because it's the only way to make Brexit stick. It's the reckoning that all those who voted for Brexit deserve in some senses. Exactly what they were warned would happen by none other than George fucking Osborne.

 

This will inevitably mean Labour will get in. 

 

It'll be a pyrrhic victory at this rate, they'll inherit ruins. 

[Dr Gloom 21959]

not going to be happen. the austerity narrative is over. a decade of cuts has been awful for our productivity and without faster output per hour, the economy won't grow as fast as we would like. that's before you factor in the brexit hit. 

 

output per hour is currently at pre-crisis levels ffs - the most pronounced period of productivity stagnation of any G7 country. 

 

the productivity puzzle requires investment, not more austerity: investment in training for low skilled workers, more spending on r&d, more support for entrepreneurs from all backgrounds etc.

[Rayvin 5223]

Just now, Renton said:

 

It'll be a pyrrhic victory at this rate, they'll inherit ruins. 

 

Fully agree - there'll be nothing left for Labour to save.

 

Fucking Tories. Incompetent and Irresponsible. We'll have years of slowly slogging ourselves back to the point we just abandoned, while the world moves on and evolves around us. It is so infuriating...

[Rayvin 5223]

1 minute ago, Dr Gloom said:

not going to be happen. the austerity narrative is over. a decade of cuts has been awful for our productivity and without faster output per hour, the economy won't grow as fast as we would like. that's before you factor in the brexit hit. 

 

output per hour is currently at pre-crisis levels ffs - the most pronounced period of productivity stagnation of any G7 country. 

 

the productivity puzzle requires investment, not more austerity: investment in training for low skilled workers, more spending on r&d, more support for entrepreneurs from all backgrounds etc.

 

What are they going to do then? How are they going to balance this? They're actively choosing to generate less state income by pursuing Brexit, so surely the only option left is to save? Or to go full Corbyn and borrow to invest.

[Alex 35104]

Get foreigners to heavily invest in the UK so we're in hock to China and the Middle East to protect our freedom. Or something.

[Meenzer 15552]

But The Sun told us it was our Independence Day

[Alex 35104]

Because the bloke who owns The Sun is a proud Brit

[Meenzer 15552]

 

 

[Dr Gloom 21959]

3 hours ago, Renton said:

 

Wow BAU, eh @Christmas Tree ?

 

Please free to counter with a positive Brexit story.

 

this line is a belter like 

 

The OBR has already estimated that Brexit will hit the public finances to the tune of £15bn a year by 2020-21. Theresa May’s government, including the Eurosceptic ministers Boris Johnson, David Davis and Liam Fox, has not disputed these estimates.

[Dr Gloom 21959]

40 minutes ago, Meenzer said:

 

 

 

just more BAUMF

[Isegrim 9801]

1 hour ago, Meenzer said:

But The Sun told us it was our Independence Day

It is the Emmerich version where everything gets blown apart first...

 

bloody Jormans eh.

[Renton 21640]

Oh dear. It seems importing food may not be as straightforward as hoped. Not just the US shafting us, commonwealth  too.

 

http://www.politico.eu/article/us-rounds-on-britain-over-food-quotas-as-post-brexit-trade-woes-deepen/

 

Hey CT, got any good Brexit  news yet?

[Renton 21640]

Hey CT, you said this WTO malarkey wasn't an issue yesterday, didn't you?

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/britain-wto-schedule-argentina-spain-brexit-latest-a7468766.html

 

Rule Brittania!

[Howmanheyman 33270]

On 03/10/2017 at 11:49 PM, Gemmill said:

What is it about "some sort of special status" that you lads don't understand?! 

[Christmas Tree 4729]

40 minutes ago, Renton said:

Hey CT, you said this WTO malarkey wasn't an issue yesterday, didn't you?

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/britain-wto-schedule-argentina-spain-brexit-latest-a7468766.html

 

Rule Brittania!

 

  Dear Lord

 

youre quoting year old articles hinting at us having to give up the Falklands and Gibralter.

 

There are lots of deals and negotiations going on and various people staking out positions. 

 

Tbh, your hysteria now reminds me of the similar hysteria in 2010/11 when you were adamant the Tory plans were going to lead to millions more unemployed. Lots of bad news stories were copied and pasted but the opposite happened. Millions of jobs were created leading record employment.

 

Yet again you are grabbing at tit bits of bargaining points in trade talks and he said she said stuff.

 

We are still the number one destination for inward European investment and achieved record levels over the last 12 months.

 

We are one of the worlds biggest economies and all the world wants to sell into us. I hope you don’t play poker.

 

 

[Renton 21640]

23 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

  Dear Lord

 

youre quoting year old articles hinting at us having to give up the Falklands and Gibralter.

 

There are lots of deals and negotiations going on and various people staking out positions. 

 

Tbh, your hysteria now reminds me of the similar hysteria in 2010/11 when you were adamant the Tory plans were going to lead to millions more unemployed. Lots of bad news stories were copied and pasted but the opposite happened. Millions of jobs were created leading record employment.

 

Yet again you are grabbing at tit bits of bargaining points in trade talks and he said she said stuff.

 

We are still the number one destination for inward European investment and achieved record levels over the last 12 months.

 

We are one of the worlds biggest economies and all the world wants to sell into us. I hope you don’t play poker.

 

 

 

True, unemployment didn't go up. What has happened though is that in the last decade people's wages in this country have gone down 10.4% on average, matched only by Greece. Bar Portugal every other developed  countries wages have increased. France by 10%, Germany by 14%. That's right, german wages have increased relative to ours by 24%. Do you really believe the economy  is doing well under your government's watch? Virtually  everything  predicted bar unemployment came to light, austerity strangled our economy. And guess what, we still have a deficit, our credit rating has been dropped successively, and the national debt is off the charts. Great job. 

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/uk-wages-drop-10-tuc-greece-recession-financial-crisis-brexit-a7157681.html

 

Today it was announced car sales are down 9%, in contrast to EU countries where they have risen across the board. Astrazeneca have confirmed they are looking to move. Financial services are getting increasingly twitchy and need transition deal sorted by Christmas. Etc. And you are unable to provide one single positive to come out this mess. 

Edited October 5, 2017 by Renton

[PaddockLad 17286]

Happy Friday everyone!  

 

 

[Renton 21640]

It's okay, I'm sure CT will be along with good news and evidence of a cracking deal any moment now. 

[Dr Gloom 21959]

The unemployment line is so misleading. The Tories can only bleat about it for so long when the types of jobs being created are so shit, when wage growth and living standards are stagnating, when nurses are forced to use food banks - zero hour contracts, zero investment in skills, and the productivity puzzle are of far greater concern. 

 

The bulge of people at at the bottom matters for social mobility and productivity. Whether pay drives productivity or productivity drIves pay, they go hand in hand. It's going to shaft the economy - all the more so amid Brexit uncertainty - and the Tories have no clue what to do about it, as Chris Giles pointed out in the FT yesterday.

 

Still as long as we embrace the spirit of Agincourt, Waterloo etc and let the lion roar, everything will be fine, right?

[Dr Gloom 21959]

2 hours ago, PaddockLad said:

Happy Friday everyone!  

 

 

 

That is, of course, an opinion piece and exactly the thing BoJo was whinging about, despite the fact most broadsheets, including the FT, have given space to brexiteers on their oped pages.

 

Not that a failure to cheerlead by distinguished commentators makes any of those scenarios less plausible. I'm still waiting for all those good Brexit news stories the MSM is deliberately ignoring to surface. 

Edited October 6, 2017 by Dr Gloom

[Alex 35104]

Another thing is when they keep banging on about more doctors and nurses when what they actually mean is creating posts they know they can't fill

[Dr Gloom 21959]

I genuinely believe the third outcome is the most desirable, even if it means we've pissed away billions only to lose the rebate. It's still preferable to the first two humiliations.

 

The problem is they'll be uproar at home. The people will only accept it if there's a second referendum after we realise how shit our options are. And the way things are going, you never know. At least people have got more of a clue about what's at stake now, unlike with the first referendum.

 

And what would be left with? We may have avoided economic catastrophe but otherwise it would be massive bill for nothing, a divided nation and our global reputation in tatters. Thanks, Dave.

Edited October 6, 2017 by Dr Gloom

[Christmas Tree 4729]

1 hour ago, Renton said:

It's okay, I'm sure CT will be along with good news and evidence of a cracking deal any moment now. 

 

I gave you lots yesterday regarding how the world is continuing to choose the UK for inward investment into Europe, but you keep weeding out negatives if it pleases you. 

 

It will soon become clear which way the negotiations are going after Christmas.