Europe --- In or Out

[Anorthernsoul 1221]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Rayvin 5164]

[Happy Face 29]

[Meenzer 15372]

Have they not been reading this thread?!

[Happy Face 29]

 

2. Main points

Post-referendum data

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has recently produced an assessment of the post-referendum economy. This concluded that although the picture is still emerging, there has been no major collapse in confidence and within the data that is available there are indications of continued momentum in the economy.

 

This has been confirmed by the Index of Services for July 2016 which shows month-on-month growth of 0.4%. This can be interpreted as further evidence that the economy has not shown any immediate signs of major negative effects following the EU referendum decision.

 

GDP

The latest estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) for Quarter 2 (April to June) 2016 published in September 2016 indicated that the UK economy grew by 0.7%, revised up 0.1 percentage points from the second estimate published in August. This maintains the picture of positive growth in the economy in the run-up to the EU referendum vote in June.

 

Investment

Investment as measured by gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) was 1.6% higher in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2016 compared with Quarter 1 (January to March 2016). This is the first quarter of positive growth since Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2015 and the highest growth rate since Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2015.

 

Sterling effects on prices

Sterling appears to have had a greater impact on PPI input prices than on PPI output prices in July and August 2016. It is likely UK producers have not passed on all of the increase in input prices to their customers, and that latent pressures on output and consumer prices may later emerge.

[Happy Face 29]

Have they not been reading this thread?!

 

CT got at their Twitter

[Meenzer 15372]

https://twitter.com/jamesswyer/status/784447996176044032/video/1

[Park Life 71]

Ukip MEP, Nathan Gill, put it: “Steven is sick of croissants and ready for a full English.” I like how even this comment smacks of resentment at foreigners (they’re still technically foreigners, even though it’s their own country, aren’t they?). A dim view appears to have been taken of the hospital, which had not only the temerity to treat Woolfe without charge, but then to offer him a continental breakfast." 

[Gemmill 44273]

He's sick of knuckle sandwiches.

[Christmas Tree 4679]

Have they not been reading this thread?!

Only the sensible posters.

 

BAMFU

[Dr Gloom 21802]

Philip Hammond tried to restore calm to currency trading in sterling on Friday, saying the government had not decided to pursue a “hard Brexit” and that the pound’s flash crash was the sort of “turbulence” he expected for the next five years.

Edited October 7, 2016 by Dr Gloom

[Dr Gloom 21802]

Speaking to journalists on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank annual meetings, Philip Hammond expressed surprise that some market participants had only recently realised the government was serious about leaving the EU.

 

Mr Hammond’s comments come after one of the most turbulent days in UK markets in recent history. After a sudden 6 per cent plunge against the dollar in thin Asian trading, the pound struggled to rebound and closed the week down 4.3 per cent at $1.2434 — levels not seen since the 1980s.

 

Downplaying tough language on migration and oversight by European institutions from the Conservative party conference this week, he said that the only new firm commitment of government was to start the Article 50 process of leaving the EU by April 2017.

 

He even kept open the option of Britain staying in the EU customs union, which would prevent the country striking new trade agreements with non-EU countries after Brexit.

[Renton 21234]

Here's some food for thought for those that think Brexit will lead to increased accountability and sovereignty.

 

Take back control!

 

https://publiclawforeveryone.com/2016/10/02/theresa-mays-great-repeal-bill-some-preliminary-thoughts/

 

(For those of tl;dr persuasion - CT - the gist is the repeal act will lead to executive decisions on law changes that will completely bypass parliament).

 

"Although the Great Repeal Bill will repeal the ECA, paradoxically it will not repeal — in the sense of getting rid of — any EU law. That is because the Government has — sensibly and inevitably — concluded that the vast body of EU law cannot simply be made to vanish overnight. The chaos that would ensue if it did would be profound. Against that background, the Great Repeal Bill, far from getting rid of EU law from the UK legal system, will preserve it. The intention appears to be that a snapshot of the EU laws applicable in the UK will be taken at one minute to midnight on Brexit eve, and that those laws will — by the statutory magic of the Great Repeal Bill — be transformed into UK laws at the clock strikes midnight on Brexit day. There will then be a leisurely — not to mention Sisyphean — process whereby the enormous body of domesticated EU legislation will be sifted, and decisions taken as to which aspects of (what was) EU law are to be retained, to be amended, and to be excised from UK law altogether.

 

There is very little detail so far on how that process will be undertaken. But there is every prospect that through its Great Repeal Bill the Government will seek to get Parliament to confer upon Ministers substantial powers to carry out that process themselves. The Prime Minister said in her speech that “[a]ny changes in the law will have to be subject to full scrutiny and proper Parliamentary debate”. However, it is almost inconceivable that the entirety of the process whereby the body of domesticated EU law is to be reviewed — and some, perhaps much, of it adjusted or removed — could be carried out in this way. The strong likelihood is that the process will be carried on largely by executive means, through the insertion into the Great Repeal Bill of wide-ranging powers enabling Ministers, rather than Parliament, to repeal or amend domesticated EU legislation. That, of course, would pile irony upon irony, as a Government determined to restore parliamentary sovereignty while giving Parliament no say over the triggering of Article 50 moved seamlessly into a vast accumulation of executive law-making power that would marginalise Parliament’s role in shaping the post-Brexit legislative landscape."

Edited October 8, 2016 by Renton

[Park Life 71]

From Gurardian comments:

 

There is so much rubbish being spouted about all this.
Under WTO rules, an organisation that all concerned are both jointly and severally members, There are only two possible outcomes of Brexit.

1) We can stay in the EU Customs Union either through re-joining EFTA (which we started) or by bilateral negotiation. This involves accepting the free movement of people.

2)Adopt WTO Most Favoured Nation status. Under WTO rules a WTO member is not allowed to offer worse terms to another WTO member than the best terms it offers it's "Most Favoured Nation" trading partner. The EU currently has 27 Free Trade Agreement's in operation. The South African/ EU TDCA establishes a free trade area without a Customs Union or free movement of people and is broadly in line with the much touted, but still to be ratified, Canadian agreement. The EU cannot do otherswise but offer us a trade deal on these terms

The plan to offer the UK a "special deal", either good or bad, is not an option open to the EU, as a member of the WTO. The deal it offers the UK must be the deal it will offer any member of the WTO. (Unless the EU is planning to leave the WTO)
Every other option is just political hot air"...

 

 

I don't know how solid this is...But hadn't really looked into the WTO stuff as I never imagined we'd be mad enough for hard Brexit.

[Park Life 71]

Guardian comments:

 

 

OMG! Have the British only now discovered how most countries in Europe work? Yes, pretty much all countries have ID cards and require registration. Yes, many countries have restrictions who can buy property. Yes, most countries do not pay benefits or welfare to EU-migrants because their systems are insurance based, not tax-based. And no country in the Eu has a free health-system.

 

It is only Britain that lets everyone in, allows everyone to vanish unregistered, pays everyone benefits and welfare money and gives everyone free treatment! Up to 3 months is the EU rule! Not forever! Nobody who has not worked and paid into social & health insurances in Germany, France, Holland, Sweden, Austria etc. can get any money there. Welfare money, if in a desperate need. But only as much as necessary to go home again.

 

The British system is simply total anarchy. Nobody knows who is doing what in the UK or where people are. This has however also been pointed out before the referendum. Nobody really understood Camerons demands. Why don't they just do their homework? Within the existing treaties UK lawmakers could have for years already gotten a much better grip on the influx of and especially the payments to people. Of course it requires and ID. And of course it requires much more staff to monitor people and make sure everyone sticks to the rules. And be strict about saying "No". Within the EU treaties it is totally possible to expell other EU citizens from a country if it is suspected they just are there to get benefits. And when people work illegally and undermine national minimum wages, well those few-hundred staff in Britain, checking that, is ridiculous. Germany has 7000 policemen doing nothing but checking businesses, workers and contracts and payments to ensure no foul-play.

 

If Britain only was a functioning country, with a functioning administration and border-police and police staffed somewhere near average northern European countries, and not just some cut down and privatised Micky Mouse admin and police force, it would have far more control over its countries.

 

And that Britain sells all its property to Russians and Arabs is their choice. Other countries don't. Restricted by national law.

 

The British government does not make any national laws. Because it does not want to. It could however anytime shop around and use Danish, German, French, or Liechtenstein laws as model which are all doable in the EU.
But the British government wants to sell the countries to the highest bidder, it seems. And it wants explicitly people moonlighting and undermining them silly minimum & living wages, otherwise it would just put enough staff there, checking up on businesses and see nobody works for less. And fine them. Yes, you read right! Elsewhere companies pay fines of up to 25.000 Euros for each worker they hire and who they not pay the minimum wage. In Britain? Micky Mouse police can do nothing and Britain thus has become and anarchy and an unregulated capitalists wet dream and an honest workers nightmare.

 

And neither the EU nor foreigners are at fault. That was done - or purposefully NOT done, left completely unregulated, by the rich companies servants a.k.a. British government.
Well, the British will that out soon after Brexit, when nothing actually gets better and people realise: hmm, it was obviously not Brussels that prevented our government from doing nothing. It was them crooks in Whitehall themselves.

Edited October 9, 2016 by Park Life

[Dr Gloom 21802]

Less than one euro to the pound at a lot of airports now.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37609114?ocid=socialflow_facebook&ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbcnews&ns_source=facebook

 

More quotes in the FT suggesting the pound is set to continue its decline. Currently down below $1.23

[Meenzer 15372]

 

I don't understand why Project Fear is still going when there's no referendum to be won.

[adios 717]

Less than one euro to the pound at a lot of airports now.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37609114?ocid=socialflow_facebook&ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbcnews&ns_source=facebook

 

More quotes in the FT suggesting the pound is set to continue its decline. Currently down below $1.23

Says more about the absolute raping you get at airport bureau de changes than anything else.

[Gemmill 44273]

Less than one euro to the pound at a lot of airports now.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37609114?ocid=socialflow_facebook&ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbcnews&ns_source=facebook

 

More quotes in the FT suggesting the pound is set to continue its decline. Currently down below $1.23

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/10/10/currency-guru-says-pound-slide-liberates-uk-from-malign-grip-of/

[Dr Gloom 21802]

Not sure I understand why fair value for sterling is $1.10 when historically it has sat at around $1.50.

[Gemmill 44273]

Shit be changin.

[ewerk 30221]

Man who pushed for Brexit in 'everything is awesome' shocker!

[ChezGiven 0]

Not sure I understand why fair value for sterling is $1.10 when historically it has sat at around $1.50.

It's called the Real Effective Exchange Rate. It's referenced in the article. It looks at the trade balance between the Uk and a range of other countries, so excludes the impact on the demand for sterling from e.g speculative flows.

 

You can argue that the WTO tariffs are now neutralized as our new sterling prices have fallen by more than the expected tariff. However, if the economy regains strength based on export competitiveness then this will be short lived as the exchange rate will rise to reflect the increased demand for sterling from the new purchasers of our exports, hence neutralizing the advantage. As this basic economic mechanism isn't explained by the currency expert and its in the Telegraph one can assume its political nature.

Edited October 11, 2016 by ChezGiven

[Dr Gloom 21802]

It feels like the piece is slightly clutching at straws in keeping with the paper's editorial line. The consensus from the majority of analyses I've read is sterling's slump is bad for UK plc.

[Gemmill 44273]

I just wanted to post something to counter some of the chicken licken stuff that's hitting this thread every day.