Europe --- In or Out

[ewerk 31237]

The UK is not alone in this strategy - all 28 EU countries imported more energy than they exported in 2014 with the UK coming in as the 12th most dependent on foreign sources of energy.

The ONS says that in 2014 the UK’s import dependency was below the EU average and it was the least dependent on foreign sources of energy out of the top five EU countries by energy use: Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the UK."

 

What's your point?

[Park Life 71]

What's your point?

That you don't have one.

[ewerk 31237]

Has the Euro plummeted against the dollar the same way the pound has? No. The point you were trying to make is entirely irrelevant. 

 

Maybe wait til after lunchtime before starting on the drink.

[Park Life 71]

Has the Euro plummeted against the dollar the same way the pound has? No. The point you were trying to make is entirely irrelevant. 

 

Maybe wait til after lunchtime before starting on the drink.

I've ans all your points especially the gigantic oil straw man rubbish.

[Dr Gloom 22200]

I don't like doing CT's job for him btw.

 

As I said earlier there are much bigger issues down the line.

 

this is the start of one of those issues. it's a one way bet against sterling, parity not out of the question. i'm glad i'm staying home for christmas.

 

we've also seen 10 year gilt yields rise about 20 basis points this week alone. the bond market is getting concerned - a lot of foreign investors hold gilts and the UK relies on the kindness of strangers to finance its current account deficit. if sterling continues to decline and it becomes disorderly, the question is at what point to foreign investors start cutting their holdings. 

 

this could be the first leg of the downward trend from sterling to other markets as the prospect of a hard brexit sinks in. that was the big message from the tory conference this week.  if we're going to be viewed as a hostile place to invest, investors won't view us as open for business. uncertainty kills markets - that's when people walk away.

Edited October 7, 2016 by Dr Gloom

[ewerk 31237]

I've ans all your points especially the gigantic oil straw man rubbish. 

 

Nope. As usual you come out with gibberish and half facts and dance around the subject like a drunk uncle at a wedding. 

Edited October 7, 2016 by ewerk

[Park Life 71]

Oil prices are nowhere near all time lows (even adjusted for inflation). They are low in the context of the last 10 years but that period showed unprecedented highs. Additionally, OPEC has just pledged to cut production so that will push the price up. Oil, gas and related products are traded in dollars (as are Copper, Aluminium etc) so the FX rate will have a significant impact on our cost base.

 

It's all fine though as we have a massive manufacturing base. Exports of 'innovative British jams & marmalades' that the department for international trade has been talking about will no doubt shore things up.

I agree as I did earlier that it will affect our energy needs at some point if the rot continues but we don't have the manufacturing base (as you say) that relies on cheap oil related derivatives.

[Park Life 71]

Nope. As usual you come out with gibberish and half facts and dance around the subject like a drunk uncle at a wedding. 

You always start hurling insults when you've been crushed. I might start to go after you a bit more.

Edited October 7, 2016 by Park Life

[Dr Gloom 22200]

sterling's prolonged fall makes the country poorer. this is a fact. it's bad for the majority of british business - just look at any company which is exposed to the euro who are about to report results. easyjet this week being a case in point.  

Edited October 7, 2016 by Dr Gloom

[Dr Gloom 22200]

on the plus side, plenty of opportunities for foreign investors to snap up luxury flats in london 

[Park Life 71]

this is the start of one of those issues. it's a one way bet against sterling, parity not out of the question. i'm glad i'm staying home for christmas.

 

we've also seen 10 year gilt yields rise about 20 basis points this week alone. the bond market is getting concerned - a lot of foreign investors hold gilts and the UK relies on the kindness of strangers to finance its current account deficit. if sterling continues to decline and it becomes disorderly, the question is at what point to foreign investors start cutting their holdings. 

 

this could be the first leg of the downward trend from sterling to other markets as the prospect of a hard brexit sinks in. that was the big message from the tory conference this week.  if we're going to be viewed as a hostile place to invest, investors won't view us as open for business. uncertainty kills markets - that's when people walk away.

Agree with all of that. But we're nowhere near that yet. 

 

 

Edited October 7, 2016 by Park Life

[ewerk 31237]

You always start hurling insults when you've been crushed. I might start to go after you a bit more.

 

[Park Life 71]

sterling's prolonged fall makes the country poorer. this is a fact. it's bad for the majority of british business - just look at any company which is exposed to the euro who are about to report results. easyjet this week being a case in point.  

Less air travel will be better for global warming innit.

[Park Life 71]

[Park Life 71]

Come on England!

[Dr Gloom 22200]

Less air travel will be better for global warming innit.

 

you really are doing CT's work for him today aren't you  

[Park Life 71]

All sorts of piddly little European countries have been taking the piss. They have no fucking idea about the depth of our resolve.

[Park Life 71]

you really are doing CT's work for him today aren't you

I hate having to do it.

[Rayvin 5349]

I'm struggling to keep track of this argument, are we saying that there will be indirect benefits to Sterling falling off a cliff (i.e. less air travel and therefore global warming reductions), or are we just saying it won't matter in the long run because the UK will prosper in the face of adversity as we're still a key market for other countries? Or both?

 

I'm amazed that people are still selling Sterling at this point tbf, surely it's bottomed out by now...?

[Park Life 71]

I'm struggling to keep track of this argument, are we saying that there will be indirect benefits to Sterling falling off a cliff (i.e. less air travel and therefore global warming reductions), or are we just saying it won't matter in the long run because the UK will prosper in the face of adversity as we're still a key market for other countries? Or both?

 

I'm amazed that people are still selling Sterling at this point tbf, surely it's bottomed out by now...?

It's a good bad.

Edited October 7, 2016 by Park Life

[Renton 22055]

I'm struggling to keep track of this argument, are we saying that there will be indirect benefits to Sterling falling off a cliff (i.e. less air travel and therefore global warming reductions), or are we just saying it won't matter in the long run because the UK will prosper in the face of adversity as we're still a key market for other countries? Or both?

 

I'm amazed that people are still selling Sterling at this point tbf, surely it's bottomed out by now...?

No, we're saying we're fucked. All except Parky who is off his contrarian tits.

 

Sterling has a long way to fall yet, it's just began.

[Dr Gloom 22200]

I'm struggling to keep track of this argument, are we saying that there will be indirect benefits to Sterling falling off a cliff (i.e. less air travel and therefore global warming reductions), or are we just saying it won't matter in the long run because the UK will prosper in the face of adversity as we're still a key market for other countries? Or both?

 

I'm amazed that people are still selling Sterling at this point tbf, surely it's bottomed out by now...?

 

it's barely got going man. this is going to rumble on until we know exactly what we're getting. when the brexit vote came in, sterling tumbled then steadied as it started to look like we might be set for a soft brexit. but as you saw this week, the more it looks like we're set for a hard brexit, the further sterling will fall. it will be a smart trade at some point but we're nowhere near the bottom yet. this will take a couple of years. key word again: uncertainty.

 

sterling is the worst performing currency this year and some analysts say it's the start of a downward trend to other markets. you've got a central bank that's buying bonds, cutting rates close to the bone and doing QE. and the uncertainty is pegged to the two year clock which will start ticking when article 50 is triggered in march. 

 

sterling's fall wipes millions off the value of british business. parky's comment about global warming was a joke, i think. 

[Gemmill 46199]

CT is a bellend, let's get that straight, but there's something to be said for his don't worry, be happy approach. All this wailing and gnashing of teeth, but truth be told, there's been no discernible change in my day to day life since the referendum.

 

I'm sure I'm fortunate in that regard, but I bet there are others on here who've seen no change but can't shut up about how ruined we all are. I know Dickie got fucked and Rayvin had a heavy day of apologising to get through but the rest of you can zip it. Just fucking chill out basically.

[Dr Gloom 22200]

america is expected to raise interest rates in december, which will also hurt sterling as traders look at currency differentials in terms of interest rates. 

 

there's a moment when sterling will recover, when traders will want to buy something that is beaten down, but we've got another two years of this - we don't even know who britain is going to be negotiating with, until there are elections in germany and france next year.

 

some clarity from the conservatives would help. sterling's depreciation could be slowed or reversed if they came out and said that we won't just drop off a cliff and plunge out of the eu at the end of the negotiations, the problem is it's not entirely down to britain - the comments coming out of germany and france this week have been pretty hostile. hollande just said if we want hard brexit, we'll get it. 

[Dr Gloom 22200]

CT is a bellend, let's get that straight, but there's something to be said for his don't worry, be happy approach. All this wailing and gnashing of teeth, but truth be told, there's been no discernible change in my day to day life since the referendum.

 

I'm sure I'm fortunate in that regard, but I bet there are others on here who've seen no change but can't shut up about how ruined we all are. I know Dickie got fucked and Rayvin had a heavy day of apologising to get through but the rest of you can zip it. Just fucking chill out basically.

 

the lives of lots of comfortable middle class people are unlikely to change that much. the country's prosperity is going to take a hit though, certainly in the short term.