Europe --- In or Out

[adios 717]

because a lot of them are international companies. Can we move on.

So why did it take you so long to answer such a simple and direct question?

[Christmas Tree 4725]

 

on friday, i pointed out to you it was the FTSE 250 that is the bellwether for the Uk economy, not the ftse 100 - a post you seemed to ignore

But first you cited the FTSE 100.

 

As for the FTSE 250, I replied to you on that as well.

[Christmas Tree 4725]

 

No, my dad's a taxi driver annoyed by all the etnics driving cabs these days too

 

I can sympathise with that but most of them round here speak better English than me and him. Not to mention they own the company

[Christmas Tree 4725]

She did not: http://www.publicwhip.org.uk/division.php?date=2003-03-18&number=118&display=allpossible

Tbh, while its a big thing for the media and Westminster, im not sure how interested the average Labour voter will care given current events.

[Dr Gloom 21912]

But first you cited the FTSE 100.

 

As for the FTSE 250, I replied to you on that as well.

 

i think i might have mentioned bank stocks lost about 30%, and that $3 trillion was wiped off global markets. i don't recall saying the ftse 100 was the most important of all the indices to watch.

 

the real indicators that investors are spooked about the uk economic outlook, as i've tried to explain to you several times now, are the performances of sterling and the ftse 250, post-brexit. both have lost about 10 per cent. simply put, this is not business as usual. it's a fuckload of cash wiped off the economy.

[Renton 21592]

Well I'm pleased with the result because I think we will be a much better country when it's concluded.

 

It was precisely for his comments on the markets / perspective that I quoted Krugman, although his comments that he doesn't think we'll enter recession are good. (Hope he's right).

 

The bottom line is whether I'm right about the outcome of the negotiations won't be known for some years. As the only available leaver to most of you I'll get a good kicking during the choppy times and no thanks at the end.

I honestly don't understand how you think we will be better off in a few years? You've kind of alluded to yourself leaning towards a Norway type situation. In summary, this will mean we will have access to the single market BUT:

1) We will have to accept full freedom of movement (confirmed by all 27 EU nations today).

2)We will have to pay a substantial access fee (in Norway, it's about the same as ours per capita).

3) We will have to abide with all the directives, without having any say in them.

4) We will be out of the CAP, but presumably will have to compensate farmers ourselves, not to mention research funds or regional development etc.

5) it looks like the banks will lose their European passports which means we will lose most our financial services. Nobody here likes bankers but they provide 20% of our GDP?

6) Because of 1), there will be a lot of angry people about and I am personally certain we'll go backwards in terms of race relations etc.

 

 

So, what are the advantages? We may be able to over fish the North Sea? We may be able to negotiate better trade deals with non-EU countries? Not clear why the latter would be even true Tbh.

 

It's not just you CT, none of the Brexiters deem to have answers to these points. No wonder Boris has shit his pants. The recent mayor have London has wrecked his city.

[Dr Gloom 21912]

i don't agree with this op-ed but it's quite a good read, almost like it was written by an intelligent CT. the message is the same: don't panic, it's business as usual

 

http://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/david-mcwilliams/calm-down-the-brexit-referendum-result-is-not-a-21stcentury-sarajevo-34842130.html

[Dr Gloom 21912]

I honestly don't understand how you think we will be better off in a few years? You've kind of alluded to yourself leaning towards a Norway type situation. In summary, this will mean we will have access to the single market BUT:

1) We will have to accept full freedom of movement (confirmed by all 27 EU nations today).

2)We will have to pay a substantial access fee (in Norway, it's about the same as ours per capita).

3) We will have to abide with all the directives, without having any say in them.

4) We will be out of the CAP, but presumably will have to compensate farmers ourselves, not to mention research funds or regional development etc.

5) it looks like the banks will lose their European passports which means we will lose most our financial services. Nobody here likes bankers but they provide 20% of our GDP?

6) Because of 1), there will be a lot of angry people about and I am personally certain we'll go backwards in terms of race relations etc.

 

 

So, what are the advantages? We may be able to over fish the North Sea? We may be able to negotiate better trade deals with non-EU countries? Not clear why the latter would be even true Tbh.

 

It's not just you CT, none of the Brexiters deem to have answers to these points. No wonder Boris has shit his pants. The recent mayor have London has wrecked his city.

 

it's about taking back control, or something, and celebrating some nonsensical public holiday, apparently.

[Renton 21592]

It's a shit day for a bank holiday even, far too close to the two May ones.

[Renton 21592]

Then again, since we won't have workers rights, I guess may day can go.

[Christmas Tree 4725]

I honestly don't understand how you think we will be better off in a few years? You've kind of alluded to yourself leaning towards a Norway type situation. In summary, this will mean we will have access to the single market BUT:

1) We will have to accept full freedom of movement (confirmed by all 27 EU nations today).

2)We will have to pay a substantial access fee (in Norway, it's about the same as ours per capita).

3) We will have to abide with all the directives, without having any say in them.

4) We will be out of the CAP, but presumably will have to compensate farmers ourselves, not to mention research funds or regional development etc.

5) it looks like the banks will lose their European passports which means we will lose most our financial services. Nobody here likes bankers but they provide 20% of our GDP?

6) Because of 1), there will be a lot of angry people about and I am personally certain we'll go backwards in terms of race relations etc.

 

 

So, what are the advantages? We may be able to over fish the North Sea? We may be able to negotiate better trade deals with non-EU countries? Not clear why the latter would be even true Tbh.

 

It's not just you CT, none of the Brexiters deem to have answers to these points. No wonder Boris has shit his pants. The recent mayor have London has wrecked his city.

Part of the problem is you are asking me to give you the answers to a very complex organisational and negotiating plan that the best brains in the land are only beginning to grapple with.

 

Obviously I can't do that and I have no idea what basis of a plan Gove or Boris have rattling around in their heads. (None you cry).

 

As I said on Brexit day 1, what European leaders say in the first couple of months while feelings are raw, might well be different when tempers cool and their own economical and political realities kick in.

 

I can only give you my wish list / thoughts rattling in my head that made me come to my decision.

 

Would like (In no order)

 

Access to single market for trade and services

Control over immigration / borders

Free trade deals with rest of world

Sovereignty over our own laws / policies (eg Democratic accountability / vat on fuel)

Separation from an union that wants to expand further geographically and politically.

Separation from the unstable Eurozone and the problems we could get dragged into financially and due to free movement.

UK decision on TTIP

 

It's late, I may have missed some off.

 

Now you will tell me I can't have all them based on current relationships and what is currently being said by the EU. But that's for the negotiations to sort out.

 

Even if we had to have free movement of people, the other stuff would be worth it, however imo they will have to deliver something on immigration otherwise a certain section of the 52% will be unhappy.

 

The only big problem for me is the level of pain we have to endure to get there. If it's "choppy waters" that can be controlled then my vision of the end game will be worth it. If it's a disaster ours few years, then that's a heavy price to pay that wouldn't sit well with me.

 

I appreciate that if you don't think the majority of that list is a good place to be, then no choppy waters to get there would be acceptable.

 

I also bare in mind this is a left leaning board and there have been lots of comments about Tories pinching holiday time off etc. Naturally I don't see any of that happening, particularly given the bloody nose the political class have just been given.

 

Anyway, an honest view. Right or wrong, time will tell.

[Christmas Tree 4725]

i don't agree with this op-ed but it's quite a good read, almost like it was written by an intelligent CT. the message is the same: don't panic, it's business as usual

 

http://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/david-mcwilliams/calm-down-the-brexit-referendum-result-is-not-a-21stcentury-sarajevo-34842130.html

A very good read. Thanks for posting xxx

[Dr Gloom 21912]

the irish indie though, CT. not exactly the consensus view.

[Christmas Tree 4725]

the irish indie though, CT. not exactly the consensus view.

Didn't the consensus win

[Dr Gloom 21912]

the brexit consensus was based on bullshit, which the leave side were all quick to admit was rubbish all along.

 

the consensus on our economic outlook is more clear.

 

gloom marketwatch for thursday: expect stering to fall to below $1.30 on back of latest UK current account data.

[Park Life 71]

The ECB and some European countries have their own problems. Spain, Portugal and Italy are in breach of their budget rules. ECB is pumping billions a month in to keep the euro steady...And these countries don't have their own currency for countermeasures. Italy is 139 % debt of GDP. We're far healthier than these.

 

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-eu-commission-forecasts-idUKKCN0XU0OM

 

 

Italy’s banks, and its government, face difficult decisions. The danger is that their pain spreads further.

The problem is obvious. Many Italian banks — or most, according to pessimistic observers — do not have enough capital. In addition, they labour under €360bn of bad loans, €200bn of which are extremely bad. The weakest banks desperately need to raise capital, but investors are hard to find. The bigger lenders have committed to underwriting new share issues for their weaker rivals but they, in turn, have needed external support."

 

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f5355f50-061e-11e6-9b51-0fb5e65703ce.html

Edited June 29, 2016 by Park Life

[NJS 4378]

Just on passporting as mentioned by Renton, if the fuckwits who negotiate don't get that then I'm afraid the UK will be fucked completely. I know I'm an insider quisling on this but the cost of lost jobs and tax receipts from the city would be monumentally damaging.

[Kid Dynamite 7025]

2 options for next Labour leader?

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/life/meet-the-next-leader-of-the-labour-party-sorry-jeremy-corbyn/

 

https://www.theguardian.com/law/2016/apr/09/labours-keir-starmer-if-we-dont-capture-the-ambitions-of-a-generation-it-doesnt-matter-who-is-leading-the-party

[Renton 21592]

Part of the problem is you are asking me to give you the answers to a very complex organisational and negotiating plan that the best brains in the land are only beginning to grapple with.

 

Obviously I can't do that and I have no idea what basis of a plan Gove or Boris have rattling around in their heads. (None you cry).

 

As I said on Brexit day 1, what European leaders say in the first couple of months while feelings are raw, might well be different when tempers cool and their own economical and political realities kick in.

 

I can only give you my wish list / thoughts rattling in my head that made me come to my decision.

 

Would like (In no order)

 

Access to single market for trade and services

Control over immigration / borders

Free trade deals with rest of world

Sovereignty over our own laws / policies (eg Democratic accountability / vat on fuel)

Separation from an union that wants to expand further geographically and politically.

Separation from the unstable Eurozone and the problems we could get dragged into financially and due to free movement.

UK decision on TTIP

 

It's late, I may have missed some off.

 

Now you will tell me I can't have all them based on current relationships and what is currently being said by the EU. But that's for the negotiations to sort out.

 

Even if we had to have free movement of people, the other stuff would be worth it, however imo they will have to deliver something on immigration otherwise a certain section of the 52% will be unhappy.

 

The only big problem for me is the level of pain we have to endure to get there. If it's "choppy waters" that can be controlled then my vision of the end game will be worth it. If it's a disaster ours few years, then that's a heavy price to pay that wouldn't sit well with me.

 

I appreciate that if you don't think the majority of that list is a good place to be, then no choppy waters to get there would be acceptable.

 

I also bare in mind this is a left leaning board and there have been lots of comments about Tories pinching holiday time off etc. Naturally I don't see any of that happening, particularly given the bloody nose the political class have just been given.

 

Anyway, an honest view. Right or wrong, time will tell.

Appreciate the answer, obviously I don't see it like that. I just don't get why you think this is worth the risks and hurt involved. Strikes me as being completely reckless, at best. I can only understand it from the pov of people with little to lose, not yourself. Edited June 30, 2016 by Renton

[Renton 21592]

Just on passporting as mentioned by Renton, if the fuckwits who negotiate don't get that then I'm afraid the UK will be fucked completely. I know I'm an insider quisling on this but the cost of lost jobs and tax receipts from the city would be monumentally damaging.

Surely the negotiating cards will be in the EU's hands? That's what worries me. And it's not just bankers who'll go, it'll be all the support staff, it would be catastrophic.

[PaddockLad 17244]

2 options for next Labour leader?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/life/meet-the-next-leader-of-the-labour-party-sorry-jeremy-corbyn/

https://www.theguardian.com/law/2016/apr/09/labours-keir-starmer-if-we-dont-capture-the-ambitions-of-a-generation-it-doesnt-matter-who-is-leading-the-party

Nandy fits the bill in a way, young gobby Manc

 

Am pretty sure Kier Starmer was the Blair governments legal advisor when the Iraq war vote was held....after Chilcott he may be damaged goods, but in light of the events of the last week fuck knows how all that will turn out in the wash...

[NJS 4378]

I've realised who that Angela Eagle reminds me of - Darth Vader without his mask at the end of Return of the Jedi.

[Happy Face 29]

Theresa May sat on the sidelines of the brexit debate and that makes her a credible option for Tory leader.

 

Corbyn sat on the sidelines of the brexit debate and that leaves him in an untenable position as Labour leader.

 

And they wonder why people disengage from party politics.

[ewerk 30569]

He was the party leader at the time. Her position in the future would be to unite both sides of the Tory party. It's a silly comparison.

[Meenzer 15518]

"What the Brexit debacle should teach us is that referendums are more often than not populist tools that allow demagogues to use the politics of resentment in a democratic way. Sure, referendums are democratic. But, they can also be deadly."

 

http://www.historymatters.group.shef.ac.uk/brexit-lesson-yugoslavia/