mackem messageboard gold

[Howmanheyman 32715]

15 hours ago, The Fish said:

Cutting and running is fine, but he's cut and hasn't run. He could have invested enough to at least keep them up, and look to cut his losses this summer. As it stands it's costing him a fortune to keep it running, there's no money coming in from player sales, tv, or commercial, a League 1 club with huge external debt won't attract suitors. He won't save them now, but he could have saved them (or at least kept them in reaching distance of rescue) by spending in January. He didn't, and now they're entirely fucked.

They were severely hampered by FFP this year even if he did have the money. He couldn't have spent without incurring a penalty IIRC?

[The Fish 10702]

14 minutes ago, Howmanheyman said:

They were severely hampered by FFP this year even if he did have the money. He couldn't have spent without incurring a penalty IIRC?

That makes more sense to me than Short not investing. 

[Rayvin 5176]

How much is relegation from the Championship to League One actually going to cost him? I bet it won't be as much as £30m.

[ewerk 30242]

They’re allowed to make £105m in losses over three seasons. I’m not sure that FFP was the reason behind not spending.

[The Fish 10702]

19 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

How much is relegation from the Championship to League One actually going to cost him? I bet it won't be as much as £30m.

Well it's a further season away from the Premier League trough, it's reduced commercial revenue, it's reduced attendances, it's reduced associated match day revenue, it's reduced revenue from player sales. Had he spent the £30m in January they may not only have survived, but finished mid table, then they're in a far far better position to try and get promoted while still supported by parachute payments and the fatter revenue streams in the Championship. They'd also be a much more attractive club to potential suitors. 

I'd argue failing to spend £30m has cost him much more than that.

[Rayvin 5176]

2 minutes ago, The Fish said:

Well it's a further season away from the Premier League trough, it's reduced commercial revenue, it's reduced attendances, it's reduced associated match day revenue, it's reduced revenue from player sales. Had he spent the £30m in January they may not only have survived, but finished mid table, then they're in a far far better position to try and get promoted while still supported by parachute payments and the fatter revenue streams in the Championship. They'd also be a much more attractive club to potential suitors. 

I'd argue failing to spend £30m has cost him much more than that.

 

I'd argue that the man has to stop throwing money in at some point, and given that the club already owes him about £100m and he has no real affinity for it, that the time has come. They stood no chance of promotion next season even with parachute payments, primarily because the parachute payments, along with Short's money, are being used to keep the place afloat. The matter has moved out of the arena of football, and is now just financial. We know this is correct because you're basically saying that you think the man has gambled incorrectly due to incompetence, despite having spent plenty of his own money in the past - and I'm saying that he's looked at the cold facts of the matter and concluded that spending more money now will only see him lose more in the long run. He's backed the 'football' decisions before, and they've landed him in this mess.

 

It's a business decision, and it was the right one. He might even be able to ship out a few high contract players as a result of the drop to League One. They already have reduced attendances, reduced player sale revenues need to be stood against reduced transfer fees, and I don't think commercial revenue will change that significantly since the championship makes a fraction of what the PL does in this respect anyway.

[Rayvin 5176]

He must be looking at them and thinking administration is very possible. If that's true, why increase his level of exposure? It'd be fucking mental to do so. The club isn't sustainable, he can't keep throwing his own money at it and papering over the cracks, it needs significant, structural change.

[ewerk 30242]

There’s no point in throwing good money after bad, you do also sometimes need to speculate to accumulate. They mightn’t have needed to spend £30m in January but at least getting a decent striker in would have helped their chances of survival.

[TheGingerQuiff 2412]

3 minutes ago, ewerk said:

There’s no point in throwing good money after bad, you do also sometimes need to speculate to accumulate. They mightn’t have needed to spend £30m in January but at least getting a decent striker in would have helped their chances of survival.

 

Sure, but who could they have got? 

[ewerk 30242]

 

[TheGingerQuiff 2412]

What they were going to beat Fulham to his signature?

[Rayvin 5176]

28 minutes ago, ewerk said:

There’s no point in throwing good money after bad, you do also sometimes need to speculate to accumulate. They mightn’t have needed to spend £30m in January but at least getting a decent striker in would have helped their chances of survival.

 

Is he trying to accumulate? He's trying to get out as far as I can see. I think he's putting the minimum amount of money in that he can in order to sell as soon as possible. The more money he 'loans' the club, the more potential buyers have to pay for it, and the less likely he is to get his sale.

[ewerk 30242]

I wasn’t entirely serious about Mitro but if they were prepared to pay a decent loan fee or maybe £10m then surely they could’ve gotten better than they did?

[TheGingerQuiff 2412]

3 minutes ago, ewerk said:

I wasn’t entirely serious about Mitro but if they were prepared to pay a decent loan fee or maybe £10m then surely they could’ve gotten better than they did?

 

They could have gotten a club to agree to it aye but convincing a decentish player to go there in their position would have been nearly impossible

[The Fish 10702]

1 hour ago, Rayvin said:

He must be looking at them and thinking administration is very possible. If that's true, why increase his level of exposure? It'd be fucking mental to do so. The club isn't sustainable, he can't keep throwing his own money at it and papering over the cracks, it needs significant, structural change.

As ewerk says it needn't have been £30m, but it could have been more than the square root of fuck all that they did spend. If he is wanting to unload them, it makes no sense to me to let them fall into League 1. It's like if you're trying to sell a house that' been costing you a fortune to maintain. You're not going to rewire it and convert the attic, but you'll give a lick of paint and fix the broken window to make it seem more attractive, even if it does cost you another sum of money on top of the fortune you've spent so far. 

If administration is likely, surely there are ways to accelerate that process? Get out now, why keep spending money on wages and upkeep if he could wash his hands of the whole sorry mess?

If selling the club is his focus, he's just knocked millions off their value by allowing them to be relegated to the 3rd tier (of course if administration follows, they'll be worth even less).

[Rayvin 5176]

8 minutes ago, The Fish said:

As ewerk says it needn't have been £30m, but it could have been more than the square root of fuck all that they did spend. If he is wanting to unload them, it makes no sense to me to let them fall into League 1. It's like if you're trying to sell a house that' been costing you a fortune to maintain. You're not going to rewire it and convert the attic, but you'll give a lick of paint and fix the broken window to make it seem more attractive, even if it does cost you another sum of money on top of the fortune you've spent so far. 

If administration is likely, surely there are ways to accelerate that process? Get out now, why keep spending money on wages and upkeep if he could wash his hands of the whole sorry mess?

If selling the club is his focus, he's just knocked millions off their value by allowing them to be relegated to the 3rd tier (of course if administration follows, they'll be worth even less).

 

He's selling the club for nothing though. All he's asking is that someone takes on the debt. And I don't see that the club is hugely less attractive being in League 1 with £150m of debt than it is in the Championship with £180m of debt.

 

At the end of the day, the man isn't an idiot - he's a successful businessman who made his money in asset stripping iirc. I'm tempted to think he knows what he's doing, and is surrounded by some very savvy financial people. The idea that they looked at January and just blithely dismissed the likelihood of being relegated for the sake of saving a few million because they didn't/couldn't appreciate that falling into League One will make the club harder to sell, without some pretty solid reasoning, is bizarre.

[zerosum 234]

1 hour ago, ewerk said:

I wasn’t entirely serious about Mitro but if they were prepared to pay a decent loan fee or maybe £10m then surely they could’ve gotten better than they did?

agree.. they could also have went for darryl murphy and would still have been a significant upgrade on their current strikers

[The Fish 10702]

40 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

 

He's selling the club for nothing though. All he's asking is that someone takes on the debt. And I don't see that the club is hugely less attractive being in League 1 with £150m of debt than it is in the Championship with £180m of debt.

 

At the end of the day, the man isn't an idiot - he's a successful businessman who made his money in asset stripping iirc. I'm tempted to think he knows what he's doing, and is surrounded by some very savvy financial people. The idea that they looked at January and just blithely dismissed the likelihood of being relegated for the sake of saving a few million because they didn't/couldn't appreciate that falling into League One will make the club harder to sell, without some pretty solid reasoning, is bizarre.

I think they blithely dismissed the likelihood of relegation when they spent £4m in the window of January 2017,  and arrogantly thought they'd be good enough to survive the Championship after selling £30m worth of talent and replacing it with £1.5m worth of toss. I think they again, overestimated their chances of survival when they spent nothing in January 2018.

 

He may be a good businessman, but he's a bad football owner. This is a business that rewards investment, and punishes those who don't.

 

Also, a £180m indebted Championship club is much more attractive than a £150m indebted League 1 club. The latter has little hope of recouping that debt without significant investment from a new owner, the former could cut costs, sell players for large profits and stabilise without risking relegation (with the right people making the right choices).

Edited April 5, 2018 by The Fish

[Rayvin 5176]

Which players could the mackems sell for large profits, exactly?

 

Have you considered as well that Short simply might not have the liquid assets to do this? Same as Ashley. He will have made the best decision possible with the information at his disposal.

Edited April 5, 2018 by Rayvin

[David Kelly 1221]

Aye that's a bizarre line about selling players for a large profit Fish.  Anyone who they have paid anything for is now worth less than what they paid for them (even taking depreciation into account) so the only chance of profit is from their kids and while a couple of have broke into the their team, none of them have done anything to suggest they can recoup what would be considered a large profit in footballing terms.  I reckon there's not many of their squad that are worth £1m+ these days.

[David Kelly 1221]

Fuck me I've just looked at their squad.  It's staggeringly bad for a club that was in the premier league last season.  I would say they might get more than a million for Kone and Oviedo out of the players that are currently there.  I can't see them getting more than £5m for anyone including their players out on loan unless they managed to negotiate a fee of more before they went.

[The Fish 10702]

1 hour ago, Rayvin said:

Which players could the mackems sell for large profits, exactly?

 

Have you considered as well that Short simply might not have the liquid assets to do this? Same as Ashley. He will have made the best decision possible with the information at his disposal.

Sorry, that was unclear on my part. I meant that they could, in the future, sell players for large profits. Young lads coming through and impressing as Middlesbrough do frequently. Players whom Premier League clubs don't want to gamble on, but go on to prove themselves and draw admiring glances. Leeds bought Chris Wood for £3m(?) and sold him to Burnley for £15m! Has there been many examples of League 1 players attracting that kind of money?

Being in the 3rd tier of English football significantly reduces their value and their earning potential. It's foolish to risk relegation for the want of £10-20m. And Ellis Short isn't short of a bob or two, he's still a billionaire. He'd earn £30m in interest within a year if it sat in a Tesco Bank savings account.

[The Fish 10702]

1 hour ago, David Kelly said:

Fuck me I've just looked at their squad.  It's staggeringly bad for a club that was in the premier league last season.  I would say they might get more than a million for Kone and Oviedo out of the players that are currently there.  I can't see them getting more than £5m for anyone including their players out on loan unless they managed to negotiate a fee of more before they went.

In total? Surely Khazri, Lens, Borini and Djilosjbsololjbsvjbssi will get them £10m between them at least? Transfermarkt seems to think Borini and Lens will be joining their loan clubs permanently next season for £9.6m

[Rayvin 5176]

4 minutes ago, The Fish said:

Sorry, that was unclear on my part. I meant that they could, in the future, sell players for large profits. Young lads coming through and impressing as Middlesbrough do frequently. Players whom Premier League clubs don't want to gamble on, but go on to prove themselves and draw admiring glances. Leeds bought Chris Wood for £3m(?) and sold him to Burnley for £15m! Has there been many examples of League 1 players attracting that kind of money?

Being in the 3rd tier of English football significantly reduces their value and their earning potential. It's foolish to risk relegation for the want of £10-20m. And Ellis Short isn't short of a bob or two, he's still a billionaire. He'd earn £30m in interest within a year if it sat in a Tesco Bank savings account.

 

Right but, that sounds like a medium to long term strategy. I do get that they would make more money if they were to do the same sorts of things, but that has to be at least a 3-5 year pay off. They're in financial peril way before anything like that comes in to save them. I honestly think they'd need to be back in the PL in order to be financially sustainable enough to make that strategy feasible. And again, how much money would that take? If Short doesn't think they're going back to the PL any time soon, I don't think League One or the Championship makes any difference to him. Especially when you consider that they probably will be promoted from L1 at first time of asking, and that they will be less burdened by their PL era wages.

 

And like I said, Short might well be a billionaire, but it's unlikely he has spare tens of millions kicking around in bank accounts. It'll all be tied up in businesses. Those businesses might be performing well - why pull out of successful ventures to free up funding for Sunderland?

[The Fish 10702]

33 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

Especially when you consider that they probably will be promoted from L1 at first time of asking

Will they? There weren't many who thought they'd get relegated this season (myself included). They'll be going down with Burton who've experience in that league, plus 1 of Bolton, Birmingham, Reading (and maybe Hull). They might shift Rodwell and Cattermole, but who's left? 

They could be down there with a club like Blackburn or Wigan... so it's not like they're nailed on favourites.The standard of players they now have is League 1 level, but not even good League 1 level. They're bereft of confidence, with a tradition of failure ingrained in the club. They've won fewer games than anyone else in the country. When the exodus occurs they're not going to be flush with cash to spend on talent, unless Short funds it. The money that they'll get from parachute payments and player sales won't even clear their external debt.

Especially given the crap they've got on the playing staff. An ageing squad of overpaid turd. They need an overhaul but haven't the money to do that.

I've been guilty of overestimating them, I won't be doing it again.