sandman02uk 0 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 its gonna get touch and go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jan 0 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 http://www.bbc.co.uk...siness-15748696 Can someone explain to me why the countries that owe each other shed loads of cash can't just agree to square it off? Looking at the circle or doom I was thinking the same thing! BVut I guess its down to what they owe the money for and to who within the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McFaul 35 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Newcastle was a dreadfully dreary place when I was a bairn and is much better now imo. I dread to think how shite and homogenous the 'culture' was in the 60s tbh. One thing I think I would say I'd like to have seen, and it is only one, is a beer crawl along the 60 pubs on Scotchy Road. There's not one now, last one was the Hydraulic Crane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ketsbaia 0 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 The banking crisis has morphed into a scary debt crisis. I think we're heading for a second great depression that could take us years to recover from. The affects the potential breakup of the euro could have on us is frightening. Europe [and the UK] was far better off before we imported all these assorted spongers from all over the world and had a lower population. Sweet David FYP. Anyway, lets see if we can nail this down. In terms of this elastic band here, how tight are things likely to get? About as tight as an average Post Office band extended over about eight inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewerk 29587 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Scaremongerers. Whats the worst that can happen? 4m on the dole? So fuck. It won't last forever. And that concludes today's economics lesson from the man who didn't understand sovereign debt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toonotl 2842 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 (edited) http://www.bbc.co.uk...siness-15748696 Can someone explain to me why the countries that owe each other shed loads of cash can't just agree to square it off? Aye. Its national banks who have bought foreign government bonds. So the debt is between private banks in e.g. France and the Italian government. Therefore, Italy owes 'France' what Italy owes to French banks. The banks used customer money invested in different risk groups so who gets what back is complicated. Is that actually acknowledged publically though? I was under the impression, I'm in no way sure though, that that was a conspiracy theory of sorts. Similar to the one about the Federal Reserve being outside the sphere of government influence in the US as a privately owned super bank. FWIW on the debt crisis from an Australian's perspective it is rather worrying for me as well. If Italy can't be bailed out, which is fucked on a scale 100 times worse than Greece, due to the size of its economy and the whole 'too big to fail, too big to bailout' line of thinking, then the implications for the rest of the EU and everyone else are big. Germany and France could pull out of the Eurozone agreement basically hard fucking mainland Europe's economy, and taking the Euro currency down with it, which then has a flow on effect radiating out to Britain, the US, China and everyone else. Also, I read that the likes of Portugal, Ireland and someone else can't remember who, are on the verge of having their debt exceed their GNP which could result in a default on their loans, resulting in bailouts for all. I think thats why Germany are against bailing out Italy because since they are such a big economy a bailout for them would set a precedent by which many other smaller nations would put their hands out for similar treatment. In saying all that. I have my doubts as to whether this is a natural thing or is engineered for some greater purpose. No David Icke lizard people or evil Jew Rockerfellers etc. Chez. Do you know why the Bond markets seem to be so important as an indicator of whether or not a bailout for a country could become a possibility in the future? Edited November 18, 2011 by toonotl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewerk 29587 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 It's not a rumour, for a long long time private banks, pension funds, insurance companies and other institutional investors have bought government bonds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewerk 29587 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Chez. Do you know why the Bond markets seem to be so important as an indicator of whether or not a bailout for a country could become a possibility in the future? Basically the level of interest demanded for bonds by the market reflects the market assessed level of risk associated with lending to a particular country i.e. Germany have to pay a low interest rate on their bonds while riskier countries like Greece and Ireland had to pay much higher interest rates so that anyone will buy them. Once the rate reaches a certain level (7% in recent times) it becomes impractical/too expensive for governments to issue bonds to the market and that is when countries have gone and requested bailouts (guarantees to purchase debt at fixed interest rates). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeazesMag 0 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 (edited) The banking crisis has morphed into a scary debt crisis. I think we're heading for a second great depression that could take us years to recover from. The affects the potential breakup of the euro could have on us is frightening. Europe [and the UK] was far better off before we imported all these assorted spongers from all over the world and had a lower population. Sweet Jesus it is correct. Please don't say you are happy that we have a few million spongers who can't speak English coming to this country to pick up benefits, that YOU are paying for. http://news.bbc.co.uk/panorama/hi/front_page/newsid_8625000/8625801.stm Edited November 18, 2011 by LeazesMag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CleeToonFan 1 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 The banking crisis has morphed into a scary debt crisis. I think we're heading for a second great depression that could take us years to recover from. The affects the potential breakup of the euro could have on us is frightening. Europe [and the UK] was far better off before we imported all these assorted spongers from all over the world and had a lower population. Sweet Jesus it is correct. Please don't say you are happy that we have a few million spongers who can't speak English coming to this country to pick up benefits, that YOU are paying for. http://news.bbc.co.u...000/8625801.stm You clearly know fuck all about the situation so please hush up. I just think federalising the European economy would bring wonders, of course in this country the thought of it gives the shitmunchers like UKIP the chance to rant on about how great Britain is and how the EU needs us but we don't need them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveTheBobby 1 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 The banking crisis has morphed into a scary debt crisis. I think we're heading for a second great depression that could take us years to recover from. The affects the potential breakup of the euro could have on us is frightening. Europe [and the UK] was far better off before we imported all these assorted spongers from all over the world and had a lower population. Sweet David FYP. Anyway, lets see if we can nail this down. In terms of this elastic band here, how tight are things likely to get? About as tight as an average Post Office band extended over about eight inches. See these are the kind of analogies that the non-square heeds like me can get to grips with . It's the way Jonny Ball would've done it and it should be encouraged . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StevenL 0 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Aye, fuck off LM. Let the grown-ups talk, this topics getting interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monkeys Fist 41418 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 The banking crisis has morphed into a scary debt crisis. I think we're heading for a second great depression that could take us years to recover from. The affects the potential breakup of the euro could have on us is frightening. Europe [and the UK] was far better off before we imported all these assorted spongers from all over the world and had a lower population. and in case you missed it the first time Leazes would settle immigration with a handshake The banking crisis has morphed into a scary debt crisis. I think we're heading for a second great depression that could take us years to recover from. The affects the potential breakup of the euro could have on us is frightening. Europe [and the UK] was far better off before we imported all these assorted spongers from all over the world and had a lower population. Sweet David FYP. Anyway, lets see if we can nail this down. In terms of this elastic band here, how tight are things likely to get? My concern is that when it all goes tits up and the banks start repossessing etc, there is nowhere near enough social housing to cope with the numbers of families who'll find themselves homeless. And, thanks to Dave and chums, there are now nowhere near enough staff to deal with the homeless. Scary shit tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Gloom 21385 Posted November 18, 2011 Author Share Posted November 18, 2011 i'm about to buy a house on a massive mortgage. to say i'm a little concerned is an understatement. could be stuck in a three bed terrace for the next ten if a a second great depression finally forces london house prices to correct. jesus wept indeed at the leazesmag comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McFaul 35 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Scaremongerers. Whats the worst that can happen? 4m on the dole? So fuck. It won't last forever. And that concludes today's economics lesson from the man who didn't understand sovereign debt. Aye and I was honest to enough to admit it. Can I just ask you do you look like Willo Flood? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewerk 29587 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 More like Colin Farrell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McFaul 35 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 More like Colin Farrell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Gloom 21385 Posted November 18, 2011 Author Share Posted November 18, 2011 http://www.bbc.co.uk...siness-15748696 Can someone explain to me why the countries that owe each other shed loads of cash can't just agree to square it off? Aye. Its national banks who have bought foreign government bonds. So the debt is between private banks in e.g. France and the Italian government. Therefore, Italy owes 'France' what Italy owes to French banks. The banks used customer money invested in different risk groups so who gets what back is complicated. Is that actually acknowledged publically though? I was under the impression, I'm in no way sure though, that that was a conspiracy theory of sorts. Similar to the one about the Federal Reserve being outside the sphere of government influence in the US as a privately owned super bank. FWIW on the debt crisis from an Australian's perspective it is rather worrying for me as well. If Italy can't be bailed out, which is fucked on a scale 100 times worse than Greece, due to the size of its economy and the whole 'too big to fail, too big to bailout' line of thinking, then the implications for the rest of the EU and everyone else are big. Germany and France could pull out of the Eurozone agreement basically hard fucking mainland Europe's economy, and taking the Euro currency down with it, which then has a flow on effect radiating out to Britain, the US, China and everyone else. Also, I read that the likes of Portugal, Ireland and someone else can't remember who, are on the verge of having their debt exceed their GNP which could result in a default on their loans, resulting in bailouts for all. I think thats why Germany are against bailing out Italy because since they are such a big economy a bailout for them would set a precedent by which many other smaller nations would put their hands out for similar treatment. In saying all that. I have my doubts as to whether this is a natural thing or is engineered for some greater purpose. No David Icke lizard people or evil Jew Rockerfellers etc. Chez. Do you know why the Bond markets seem to be so important as an indicator of whether or not a bailout for a country could become a possibility in the future? European government bonds were always seen as safe investments. Only the German bund is now really. The crisis is spreading. Spain and Italy are core economies in the eurozone. We're not talking Greece here, but they both looked fucked their bond yields are trading at unsustainable levels and spain's recent bond auction was a disaster. If one of those needs a bailout - and the market could yet decide they do - then we're fucked. There isn't enough money in the pot, not in any imaginable rescue fund - not even the IMF could bail out those two. The most likely scenario is a breakup of the eurozone - a two speed Europe with the core countries staying with the single currency and the periphery returning to their old currencies. That will result in global market chaos and when the shit hits the fan it will inevitably result in widespread civil unrest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Howmanheyman 31847 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Not worried at all. I'm pissed off and doon in the dumps in so many ways its a fly on the ointment at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChezGiven 0 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 The narrative in macro-economics is changing on this side of the Atlantic but the worry remains because e.g. Osbourne wont move from plan A and the US political divides are too deep. The change in narrative is to the one which Krugman and his mates have been banging on about for over 18 months, this is a growth crisis not a debt crisis. There is a gradual realisation amongst the analysts that Krugman's 'confidence fairy' doesnt exist. The idea went like this: we had stagnating economies in EU and US and rising unemployment. At the same time there was a deficit between government income and expenditure that needed to be funded by the bond markets. By drastically cutting government spending two things were meant to happen. First it would reduce the deficit and secondly it would encourage the private sector to invest money into the economy to create jobs. Both of these concepts rested on the idea of confidence. Confidence in the government's ability to deal with its fiscal problems thus ensuring the bond market continued to lend at reasonable rates. That seems reasonable but it was the other side of the coin that proved to be the downfall of Europe. The President of the ECB Jean-Claude Trichet said in 2010 that "the idea that austerity measures could trigger stagnation is incorrect" because “confidence-inspiring policies will foster and not hamper economic recovery.” So what happened? Austerity measures triggered stagnation and confidence inspiring policies hampered recovery. It would be funny if millions of young bright educated kids weren't losing out when (perhaps) they didnt have to. Trichet is basically a mug, he only just relented on the Greek debt to allow a default. He has now stepped down as President and in the end allowed Greece to default when everyone inside the IMF knew since 2009 that it had no option but to default. I guess the hope was that austerity would save it which in retrospect was idiotic. So where next? The problem lies in the fact that everyone is implementing austerity at the same time and no one can devalue their currency to boost exports and reduce the demand for imports. This is what Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy need to do. If they dont then the whole economic outlook of the region will remain stagnant. If they did, then the possible permutations are enormous and too difficult to go into now. If Germany leaves the Euro, their currency would appreciate versus the Euro, making their exports immediately less competitive and would stifle their economy, that could present an opportunity for the UK economy. Whether you should buy a house depends on why you are buying the house. If its to live in and to stop paying rent to a landlord then continued economic stagnation should still make it worth it. Unless there is economic meltdown and huge deflation, the value of the asset will remain virtually the same minus inflation and it just becomes a way of ensuring your housing costs go towards an asset you are buying. If however, you want to buy a house to get on the property 'ladder' then i doubt that the housing market will show any long term growth whether the Euro collapses or not. The outlook for the UK is very poor as it is for the rest of Europe and the US. The solution to a return to long term growth rests on the same conditions seen during great epochs of growth in the past: innovation, increased productivity, new markets, wars. The idea of confidence is still important though, even if you invent a clever new product, people/households still need to spend on it. Whilst i am far from a Marxist, i have some sympathy with the view that the global economic system is built on the false promise of consumerism and has shifted all wealth to the top. The OWS movement has tapped into that feeling and is posing questions that everyone of us needs to face. I do worry though, capitalism in its modern form has only been around since the start of the 18th century and the fixation on constant growth is even younger. The question 'can the world economy go on growing forever' is not one you see posed often but its maybe under question now. With the whole system based on this growth, if it does disappear then there is no solution to the 'debt crisis' and i guess a systemic collapse is a possibility but unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toonotl 2842 Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 (edited) ewerk & Gloomy thanks for the explanation of bond markets. Chez. It's funny that you should mention how austerity was raised up as the solution and its relation to market confidence because I saw here on the nightly news that they spouting exactly that crap. In the story, Italy was this stupid country that still allowed its citizens to do outrageous things like retire at a reasonable age, collect a full pension, have paid maternal leave and so on and so forth. When you see the main outlet by which the proletariat get their 'information' and this is the shit getting thrown at them. Its worrying. If the unlearned are be groomed to discard the expectation that citizens can expect to be supported by their government in the most fundamental ways then I can't see how the system stands up. A lack of government support for the retired, disabled (which is happening in Australia as thousands of previously disabled welfare receivers have been sent or are being sent back to work), or otherwise disadvantaged is dangerous in a society where individualism has been openly encouraged in the interests of fostering the ideals of consumerism in the last 100 years or so. I don't know if that argument comes across clearly enough. What I'm saying is basically governments cutting spending to support the elderly and others, coupled with individual greed, that which greases the wheels of consumerism and therby capitalism, is not something that is going to work in westernised society. From what I now understand about bond markets, as essentially a confidence based market indicator of the perceived strength of a country's economy, the notion that cutting spending is going to increase consumer confidence in the system as a whole and thereby stabilise the market long term is at best dillusionary and at worse something more sinister. So is the idea then one from the traditional left side of government policy that spending is needed by governments to boost the economy? I have my doubts about this theory myself, it seems to me it can only ever be a temporary fix as debt increases affects the long term feasibility of loaning more and more money to help boost a nation's economy. Add to that the fact that we end up with an even more artificial financial environment where the 'crash we have to have' gets harder and harder as bailouts and artificial economy boosting pulls the slingshot back that little bit further in anticipation of the unescapable inevitability. That just my somewhat lay view on things though. I could be completely wrong on that one. Edited November 19, 2011 by toonotl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happy Face 29 Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 (edited) The banking crisis has morphed into a scary debt crisis. I think we're heading for a second great depression that could take us years to recover from. The affects the potential breakup of the euro could have on us is frightening. Europe [and the UK] was far better off before we imported all these assorted spongers from all over the world and had a lower population. Looks to me like the wealth is transferring to the richest, not the poorest. But I only have facts to back that up, not real world experience. Edited November 19, 2011 by Happy Face Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toonotl 2842 Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 No need for facts when you've got cold hard racist preconceptions and readily available over simplified nonsense recollections of the good ol' days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Kenneth Noisewater 0 Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 http://www.bbc.co.uk...siness-15748696 Ireland's foreign debt to GDP: 1093% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DEADMAN 0 Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 i think the high fuel prices i think the rich should pay more tax i think vat should be cut to 18% and one of the fuel taxes or 2 dropped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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