toonotl 3107 Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 7th position for the past 5 seasons... 06-07 Bolton 56 pts Qualified for Europe 07-08 Blackburn 58 pts Did not qualify 08-09 Fulham 53 pts Qualified for Europe 09-10 Liverpool 63 pts Qualified for Europe 10-11 Everton 54 pts Did not qualify The average number of points required over the past 5 seasons is 56.8 points. I would say this year the lower end of the spectrum will be required for 7th due to the strength of the top teams (referred to as the top 6 rather than the top 4 as in previous years illustrates this improved strength of the top teams in the division). So a points total of say 55 would probably do it. Then we just have to hope that a team 1-6 wins the league cup. With Man City taking it seriously that is a distinct possibility. And likewise for the FA Cup, if we don't win it ourselves of course. Assuming then that 7th will be a Europa spot I would consider our main competition for the final Europa spot to be Villa, Stoke (yuk), Fulham and Everton. Our advantage over these teams currently is 10 points to Villa and Stoke who are on 12 points and 12 points to Fulham and Everton who are on 10 points. A big advantage at this stage of the season but things could change quickly, especially with our tough run of fixtures coming up. After Everton next week at home which we should win (touch wood) on current form. The following three fixture are, as I'm sure we're all aware by now, these... Away to City Away to ManUn Home to Chelski. After that however we have a relatively easy run against three obviously beatable teams where we could easily gain 9 points coming into xmas especially if the previous three matches don't dent our confidence too much. So if we win next week against Everton we will be on 25 points and will probably only need another 30 points in the rest of the season to take 7th spot. Put another way, we will need from our last 27 games of the season roughly the same number of points accumulated in our first 11 (assuming for a moment that we beat Everton of course). I'll say this, if we are on 35 points at xmas we will qualify for Europe through 7th in the league, all else being equal. But that seems to easy so I'm going to go out on a limb now and predict 7th and a probable Europa spot will be ours come the end of the season, EVEN if we lose our next 3 games. Thoughts? Flaming? Discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monroe Transfer 0 Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Not going to add much to the thread this but I'm personally against making any predictions at the moment. Indeed I probably won't till the new year. Plus lIke I posted in another thread there are a number of situations that we will eventually encounter, and how we cope with those situations could well suggest where we could end up come the end of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happy Face 29 Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Between 53 and 63 points then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toonotl 3107 Posted October 31, 2011 Author Share Posted October 31, 2011 Not going to add much to the thread this but I'm personally against making any predictions at the moment. Indeed I probably won't till the new year. Plus lIke I posted in another thread there are a number of situations that we will eventually encounter, and how we cope with those situations could well suggest where we could end up come the end of the season. Still might get relegated then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TicTacWoe 0 Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 (edited) It's possible. I think our best eleven is as good as anyone's outside the big 6. Injuries and the ACN may prove problematic. Lets wait and see anyway, too early for much guesswork. Best thing about this squad is the team spirit and the genuine shape/organisation that we haven't had since Sir Bobby was in charge. Edited October 31, 2011 by TicTacWoe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Park Life 71 Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 Between 53 and 63 points then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Park Life 71 Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 Think we'll finish 7th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wykikitoon 20713 Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 Think a few people need to chill out. Its a long old season and we have a thread bare squad. Nov - Feb are hard times in the season. We need to strengthen in Jan no doubt. Its a marathon not a sprint lads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest alex Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 I'd be disappointed if we finished below 7th after the good start like. Even then though, it doesn't guarantee a Europa League place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lake Bells tits 1 Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 I seem to recall a certain team that had a similar run last fall... and mrs. doubtfire`s boys came crashing down after new year... That being said, thinking about relegation now seems pointless, we are 15 points clear of the bottom teams... Think about it, falling back into relegation form now would average 1 point a game. That would put us at around 50 points, which could be enough for 7th, seeing as the top teams seem to stumble less this year than last... Happy times 30 points by christmas and I think we could be in for an exciting spring season.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChezGiven 0 Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 I've been following this from ON on NO. "Rolling League Table" 6th place will be ours if Fulham beat Spurs and we beat Everton. (Last season's points & position in brackets) Manchester United.............38............+45..........80 (1st, 80) Manchester City..................38...........+41...........77 (3rd, 71) Chelsea..............................38.......... ..+25..........70 (2nd, 71) Arsenal................................38........ ...+26..........69 (4th, 68) Liverpool.............................38......... ...+24.........68 (6th, 58) Tottenham Hotspur.............38............+11..........65 (5th, 62) Newcastle United.................38...........+11...........59 (12th, 46) Everton...............................38......... ...+1...........52 (7th, 54) West Bromwich Albion.........38...........-8............48 (11th, 47) Stoke City............................38...........-9............47 (13th, 46) Bolton Wanderers...............38............-8...........46 (14th, 46) Aston Villa...........................38............-10..........46 (9th, 48) Fulham................................38......... ...+1...........45 (8th, 49) Norwich City..........................38.........-20............41 (19th, 39) Queen's Park Rangers..........38.........-20............40 (18th, 39) Sunderland..........................38...........-14..........39 (10th, 47) Blackburn Rovers.................38...........-21..........37 (15th, 43) Swansea City........................38.........-22............35 (20th, 33) Wigan Athletic....................38..........-26...........35 (16th, 42) Wolverhampton Wanderers.38..........-27...........35 (17th, 40) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin S. Assilleekunt 1 Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 I think we should wait until we're on 40 points and see where we stand. May be able to summon a push for a Europa league spot. Just enjoying the games as they come now, been a fantastic season thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChezGiven 0 Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 I think this saturday is the biggest game of the season so far due to the result on monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JawD 99 Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 Thats the thing now. At the start of the season Id have said top 10 would have been progress and cemented our status as a mid table side. But with the start we have had, 9-10th would be disappointing. I know we wont sustain top 4 or anything daft like that, but I'd think 7th has to be a realistic target whether that gets is into Europa or not. Plus, I dont think we are equipped for any European cup run anyway, not with such a thin squad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitman 2207 Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 Fuck knows. Like the cliche, I prefer to take one game at a time atm [/over the moon Brian] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trophyshy 7084 Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 My bowels say we'll finish 6th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toonotl 3107 Posted November 3, 2011 Author Share Posted November 3, 2011 (edited) 7th has to be a realistic target whether that gets is into Europa or not. Plus, I dont think we are equipped for any European cup run anyway, not with such a thin squad. I think that if we are still in the mix in January. Which we will almost certainly be given our great start then Ashley may loosen the purse strings a bit with a view towards adding depth to consolidate our position and prepare early for Europe next season. He did similar while we were in the Championship albeit not on the same scale obviously. But Ashley has shown he is smart enough to protect his equity. I'm still not expecting any £10+mill signings but tbh that's not really necessary. We have a quality starting XI and a few quality backups. If we can get 3 or 4 more quality backup players then we will have a squad of around 20 good players plus some youth to fill in. That's getting towards the sort of numbers required for the Europa League. I'm not expecting a full on assualt on the EL just solid investment to make sure we can compete whilst not comprimising our focus on the league. And that's fair enough tbh. It's not much of a competition after all. Edited November 3, 2011 by toonotl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happy Face 29 Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 If you finish in the UEFA cup places is there a penalty for declining the invite to take part? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Carr's Gloves 3964 Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 On the flip side how many points do we need to be safe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lake Bells tits 1 Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 Reckon around 15 more, bottom three wont have 40 points this year that Im quite sure of... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest alex Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 On the flip side how many points do we need to be safe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happy Face 29 Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 I've been following this from ON on NO. "Rolling League Table" 6th place will be ours if Fulham beat Spurs and we beat Everton. (Last season's points & position in brackets) Manchester United.............38............+45..........80 (1st, 80) Manchester City..................38...........+41...........77 (3rd, 71) Chelsea..............................38.......... ..+25..........70 (2nd, 71) Arsenal................................38........ ...+26..........69 (4th, 68) Liverpool.............................38......... ...+24.........68 (6th, 58) Tottenham Hotspur.............38............+11..........65 (5th, 62) Newcastle United.................38...........+11...........59 (12th, 46) Everton...............................38......... ...+1...........52 (7th, 54) West Bromwich Albion.........38...........-8............48 (11th, 47) Stoke City............................38...........-9............47 (13th, 46) Bolton Wanderers...............38............-8...........46 (14th, 46) Aston Villa...........................38............-10..........46 (9th, 48) Fulham................................38......... ...+1...........45 (8th, 49) Norwich City..........................38.........-20............41 (19th, 39) Queen's Park Rangers..........38.........-20............40 (18th, 39) Sunderland..........................38...........-14..........39 (10th, 47) Blackburn Rovers.................38...........-21..........37 (15th, 43) Swansea City........................38.........-22............35 (20th, 33) Wigan Athletic....................38..........-26...........35 (16th, 42) Wolverhampton Wanderers.38..........-27...........35 (17th, 40) More evidence we're just like West Brom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happy Face 29 Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 Interesting trendlines. Take note Leazes, that's why qualifying for Champions League is harder now than it was in '97. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Park Life 71 Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 It's cause the top 4/5 have spent more and become stronger units. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gemmill 46024 Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 Interesting trendlines. Take note Leazes, that's why qualifying for Champions League is harder now than it was in '97. Pretty effective demonstration of the growing inequality in the Premier League as well with the relegated teams becoming less and less able to accumulate points. Good shit HF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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