The slippery slope

[Craig 6700]

Mike Ashley's value over the last 5 years according to the Sunday Times Rich List. List compiled in April of each year.

 

2007 £1.9bn

2008 £1.398bn

2009 £700m

2010 £890m

2011 £1.268bn

[ChezGiven 0]

But in the same way I wouldnt claim 7th in the league today, I wouldnt go off a particular match gate today. You need to look at those things on the years average to compare.

To an extent you're right which is backed up by my thread about match by match positions however on attendances I think its fair to say that the averages are ok to use regardless of number of gates.

 

Just to be sure though lets look at the gates for the two games weve played so far:

 

Arsenal 06/07 - 52,293

Arsenal 11/12 - 46,894

Difference - 5399

 

Fulham 06/07 - 50,365

Fulham 11/12 - 42,684

Difference - 7681

 

Average loss since 06/07 = 6540

 

Unfortunately that way is too unreliable and my year average is better.

eg in 06/07 Blackburn 51,000

last year Blackburn 41,000

 

That would imply a 10,000 drop yet the yearly average still worked out at only 3,00.

No it’s not. Your method assumes things aren’t getting worse, that an attendance ten months* ago reflects where we are now.

 

* Before we sold Carroll, before we were misled about the money being reinvested, before the LC was closed, before the name of the club was removed from the east stand, before non members were banned from buying tickets for away games, before ST holders were forced to pay extra for a membership they didn’t want, before we sold Nolan, Enrique and Barton, before we spent £1m in the close season strengthening the squad etc etc

Worse things happened in 2008 and the average only went to 47,000 last year. They are going to drop this year though unless Pardew can work miracles.

[Guest Your Name Here]

But in the same way I wouldnt claim 7th in the league today, I wouldnt go off a particular match gate today. You need to look at those things on the years average to compare.

To an extent you're right which is backed up by my thread about match by match positions however on attendances I think its fair to say that the averages are ok to use regardless of number of gates.

 

Just to be sure though lets look at the gates for the two games weve played so far:

 

Arsenal 06/07 - 52,293

Arsenal 11/12 - 46,894

Difference - 5399

 

Fulham 06/07 - 50,365

Fulham 11/12 - 42,684

Difference - 7681

 

Average loss since 06/07 = 6540

 

Unfortunately that way is too unreliable and my year average is better.

eg in 06/07 Blackburn 51,000

last year Blackburn 41,000

 

That would imply a 10,000 drop yet the yearly average still worked out at only 3,00.

No it’s not. Your method assumes things aren’t getting worse, that an attendance ten months* ago reflects where we are now.

 

* Before we sold Carroll, before we were misled about the money being reinvested, before the LC was closed, before the name of the club was removed from the east stand, before non members were banned from buying tickets for away games, before ST holders were forced to pay extra for a membership they didn’t want, before we sold Nolan, Enrique and Barton, before we spent £1m in the close season strengthening the squad etc etc

Worse things happened in 2008 and the average only went to 47,000 last year. They are going to drop this year though unless Pardew can work miracles.

The best gauge of current supporter apathy is home cup games. If we get one let’s see how many turn up.

Edited September 4, 2011 by Your Name Here

[manc-mag 1]

But in the same way I wouldnt claim 7th in the league today, I wouldnt go off a particular match gate today. You need to look at those things on the years average to compare.

To an extent you're right which is backed up by my thread about match by match positions however on attendances I think its fair to say that the averages are ok to use regardless of number of gates.

 

Just to be sure though lets look at the gates for the two games weve played so far:

 

Arsenal 06/07 - 52,293

Arsenal 11/12 - 46,894

Difference - 5399

 

Fulham 06/07 - 50,365

Fulham 11/12 - 42,684

Difference - 7681

 

Average loss since 06/07 = 6540

 

Unfortunately that way is too unreliable and my year average is better.

eg in 06/07 Blackburn 51,000

last year Blackburn 41,000

 

That would imply a 10,000 drop yet the yearly average still worked out at only 3,00.

No it’s not. Your method assumes things aren’t getting worse, that an attendance ten months* ago reflects where we are now.

 

* Before we sold Carroll, before we were misled about the money being reinvested, before the LC was closed, before the name of the club was removed from the east stand, before non members were banned from buying tickets for away games, before ST holders were forced to pay extra for a membership they didn’t want, before we sold Nolan, Enrique and Barton, before we spent £1m in the close season strengthening the squad etc etc

 

To be fair CT, when measuring how happy people are now compared to them, it's wrong to downplay the evidence of diminishing crowds as they are the only real irrefutable fact that's available for consideration. And as YNH says, it's probably a continuing downward trend for the reasons he's set out above.

 

For balance however (and this is complete speculation) I'd imagine the crowds would have started to deplete a bit if we'd continued on the same direction we were headed under the guys who sold to Ashley as all that had started to get a bit desperate too.

[manc-mag 1]

But in the same way I wouldnt claim 7th in the league today, I wouldnt go off a particular match gate today. You need to look at those things on the years average to compare.

To an extent you're right which is backed up by my thread about match by match positions however on attendances I think its fair to say that the averages are ok to use regardless of number of gates.

 

Just to be sure though lets look at the gates for the two games weve played so far:

 

Arsenal 06/07 - 52,293

Arsenal 11/12 - 46,894

Difference - 5399

 

Fulham 06/07 - 50,365

Fulham 11/12 - 42,684

Difference - 7681

 

Average loss since 06/07 = 6540

 

Unfortunately that way is too unreliable and my year average is better.

eg in 06/07 Blackburn 51,000

last year Blackburn 41,000

 

That would imply a 10,000 drop yet the yearly average still worked out at only 3,00.

No it’s not. Your method assumes things aren’t getting worse, that an attendance ten months* ago reflects where we are now.

 

* Before we sold Carroll, before we were misled about the money being reinvested, before the LC was closed, before the name of the club was removed from the east stand, before non members were banned from buying tickets for away games, before ST holders were forced to pay extra for a membership they didn’t want, before we sold Nolan, Enrique and Barton, before we spent £1m in the close season strengthening the squad etc etc

Worse things happened in 2008 and the average only went to 47,000 last year. They are going to drop this year though unless Pardew can work miracles.

The best gauge of current supporter apathy is home cup games. If we get one let’s see how many turn up.

 

True, although at the same time massively difficult to do comparisons on for several reasons.

 

Not that I'm disputing your basic standpoint - gates are down and I agree they will continue to diminish this season (unless on field results massively exceed expectations)

[Christmas Tree 4850]

But in the same way I wouldnt claim 7th in the league today, I wouldnt go off a particular match gate today. You need to look at those things on the years average to compare.

To an extent you're right which is backed up by my thread about match by match positions however on attendances I think its fair to say that the averages are ok to use regardless of number of gates.

 

Just to be sure though lets look at the gates for the two games weve played so far:

 

Arsenal 06/07 - 52,293

Arsenal 11/12 - 46,894

Difference - 5399

 

Fulham 06/07 - 50,365

Fulham 11/12 - 42,684

Difference - 7681

 

Average loss since 06/07 = 6540

 

Unfortunately that way is too unreliable and my year average is better.

eg in 06/07 Blackburn 51,000

last year Blackburn 41,000

 

That would imply a 10,000 drop yet the yearly average still worked out at only 3,00.

No it’s not. Your method assumes things aren’t getting worse, that an attendance ten months* ago reflects where we are now.

 

* Before we sold Carroll, before we were misled about the money being reinvested, before the LC was closed, before the name of the club was removed from the east stand, before non members were banned from buying tickets for away games, before ST holders were forced to pay extra for a membership they didn’t want, before we sold Nolan, Enrique and Barton, before we spent £1m in the close season strengthening the squad etc etc

 

To be fair CT, when measuring how happy people are now compared to them, it's wrong to downplay the evidence of diminishing crowds as they are the only real irrefutable fact that's available for consideration. And as YNH says, it's probably a continuing downward trend for the reasons he's set out above.

 

For balance however (and this is complete speculation) I'd imagine the crowds would have started to deplete a bit if we'd continued on the same direction we were headed under the guys who sold to Ashley as all that had started to get a bit desperate too.

 

I'm not disputing diminishing crowds, just saying the wild swings need to be viewed over a full season to get a realistic figure. I agree they will drop again this year because you had all the three year deals finishing.

 

A lot, like me only joined up because KK was back.

 

I agree though I think crowds would have dropped regardless, but that's a whole different can of worms.

[Dr Gloom 22185]

Crowds have taken a big hit for a read on CT. I can only see hem getting worse as long as he's in charge too.

 

Dont quite understand what "read" means. But crowds have taken a 3,000 hit

 

I meant for a reason...stupid iPad. The reason being people are sick of the direction the club had taken under ashley

Edited September 5, 2011 by Dr Gloom

[peasepud 59]

But in the same way I wouldnt claim 7th in the league today, I wouldnt go off a particular match gate today. You need to look at those things on the years average to compare.

To an extent you're right which is backed up by my thread about match by match positions however on attendances I think its fair to say that the averages are ok to use regardless of number of gates.

 

Just to be sure though lets look at the gates for the two games weve played so far:

 

Arsenal 06/07 - 52,293

Arsenal 11/12 - 46,894

Difference - 5399

 

Fulham 06/07 - 50,365

Fulham 11/12 - 42,684

Difference - 7681

 

Average loss since 06/07 = 6540

 

Unfortunately that way is too unreliable and my year average is better.

 

eg in 06/07 Blackburn 51,000

last year Blackburn 41,000

 

That would imply a 10,000 drop yet the yearly average still worked out at only 3,00.

 

You are correct and also understand how averages work.

Hold on, we're not arguing how many per season have buggered off, its how many have gone since Ashley took over full stop. My average is based on the average of the 2 games we've played so far. As for it being too unreliable, bollocks. Its far more reliable to take the actual games weve played so far than the yearly average. If 6,000 less turn up to watch us play Arsenal then thats a better indication of how badly weve dropped. If we'd played Wigan and Stoke so far then compared the average of those 2 against the average of a full season youd not take into account the higer gates against Mackems, Man U, Liverpool etc.

 

Put it this way, last season we had an 8 goal thriller against Arsenal, if anything is a good advert for the first game of the season that would have been it.

[Guest alex]

Next home game: Monday night, on the telly against newly-promoted opposition (after the 'disappointing' window). Should be interesting. If it doesn't dip below 40k, I doubt if it will at all this season (for a league game, anyway).

[peasepud 59]

So is NUFC in a healthier state now than when Mike Ashley bought it?

 

Crowds? No. -- down around 3000 since 2007

 

Football wise? Yes. -- Finished 12th as opposed to 13th in 2007

Finances? Yes. -- would be my guess simply down to the fact that one man owns it all. No banks, no crippling interest rates.

 

Manager? Yes. -- Allardyce or Pardew. Pardew every day of the week for me.

 

Outlook? Yes. -- The future looked pretty grim back then, it now looks stable, imo.

 

Squad? unsure. -- Wouldnt like to say

 

Stability? Yes. -- Whether its right or not, we now have a workable plan, not dare I say it "kneejerk".

 

Feel free to add any other criteria.

 

So you see the one league place as a higher sign of quality than the fact we competed in Europe that season? Using your logic then its clearly not.

 

Premiership position: +1 in 10/11

UEFA position: -2 in 10/11

 

Overall: -1

[Guest alex]

Ashley has, basically, turned us into Sunderland.

[snakehips 0]

I don't know if it's true or false, but there's a lad on N-O who says he's seen a Direct Spots sign on the inside of the crossbars at SJP so that when an incident/goal is shown from the camera in the net the advert is shown. Until I see it for myself, or have it confirmed on here, I am reticent to condemn it but if it is in fact true it will be just magnificent

[snakehips 0]

Next home game: Monday night, on the telly against newly-promoted opposition (after the 'disappointing' window). Should be interesting. If it doesn't dip below 40k, I doubt if it will at all this season (for a league game, anyway).

 

The game v QPR is in Shepherd's Bush, Alex.

 

 

However, I was a bit staggered when Pud posted the attendance v Arsenal earlier. First game of the season. Versus Arsenal. And it wasn't a full house?? Staggering, on the telly or not.

[peasepud 59]

Next home game: Monday night, on the telly against newly-promoted opposition (after the 'disappointing' window). Should be interesting. If it doesn't dip below 40k, I doubt if it will at all this season (for a league game, anyway).

 

The game v QPR is in Shepherd's Bush, Alex.

Hes moved the ground to London?

 

 

is there no end to this mans stupidity?

 

However, I was a bit staggered when Pud posted the attendance v Arsenal earlier. First game of the season. Versus Arsenal. And it wasn't a full house?? Staggering, on the telly or not.

and that was the point I was making, its all well and good to use the last complete season attendances but that one shows it far more than anything.

[Guest alex]

Next home game: Monday night, on the telly against newly-promoted opposition (after the 'disappointing' window). Should be interesting. If it doesn't dip below 40k, I doubt if it will at all this season (for a league game, anyway).

The game v QPR is in Shepherd's Bush, Alex.However, I was a bit staggered when Pud posted the attendance v Arsenal earlier. First game of the season. Versus Arsenal. And it wasn't a full house?? Staggering, on the telly or not.

So it is If it tops 30k, I'll be amazed

[snakehips 0]

Next home game: Monday night, on the telly against newly-promoted opposition (after the 'disappointing' window). Should be interesting. If it doesn't dip below 40k, I doubt if it will at all this season (for a league game, anyway).

The game v QPR is in Shepherd's Bush, Alex.However, I was a bit staggered when Pud posted the attendance v Arsenal earlier. First game of the season. Versus Arsenal. And it wasn't a full house?? Staggering, on the telly or not.

So it is If it tops 30k, I'll be amazed

 

Remember that Cole/Beardley goal there? Fucking superb.

[Guest alex]

Next home game: Monday night, on the telly against newly-promoted opposition (after the 'disappointing' window). Should be interesting. If it doesn't dip below 40k, I doubt if it will at all this season (for a league game, anyway).

The game v QPR is in Shepherd's Bush, Alex.However, I was a bit staggered when Pud posted the attendance v Arsenal earlier. First game of the season. Versus Arsenal. And it wasn't a full house?? Staggering, on the telly or not.

So it is If it tops 30k, I'll be amazed

 

Remember that Cole/Beardley goal there? Fucking superb.

Aye, fucking magic.

Edit: 93/94? Was it a Sunday tea-time?

Edited September 5, 2011 by alex

[snakehips 0]

Next home game: Monday night, on the telly against newly-promoted opposition (after the 'disappointing' window). Should be interesting. If it doesn't dip below 40k, I doubt if it will at all this season (for a league game, anyway).

The game v QPR is in Shepherd's Bush, Alex.However, I was a bit staggered when Pud posted the attendance v Arsenal earlier. First game of the season. Versus Arsenal. And it wasn't a full house?? Staggering, on the telly or not.

So it is If it tops 30k, I'll be amazed

 

Remember that Cole/Beardley goal there? Fucking superb.

Aye, fucking magic.

Edit: 93/94? Was it a Sunday tea-time?

 

You're probably right about the details - they were wearing the new promotion shirts (probably just pip the grandad collar ones in class, for me). It was a Sky game (fairly sure I've got the tape of it at home).

[Guest alex]

And if I'm not mixing things up, Sir Les missed a sitter near the end - for them, obviously (header as well).

Edited September 5, 2011 by alex

[ewerk 31222]

I don't know if it's true or false, but there's a lad on N-O who says he's seen a Direct Spots sign on the inside of the crossbars at SJP so that when an incident/goal is shown from the camera in the net the advert is shown. Until I see it for myself, or have it confirmed on here, I am reticent to condemn it but if it is in fact true it will be just magnificent

 

I'd imagine that there is some rule requiring the crossbar to be completely white?

[peasepud 59]

I don't know if it's true or false, but there's a lad on N-O who says he's seen a Direct Spots sign on the inside of the crossbars at SJP so that when an incident/goal is shown from the camera in the net the advert is shown. Until I see it for myself, or have it confirmed on here, I am reticent to condemn it but if it is in fact true it will be just magnificent

 

I'd imagine that there is some rule requiring the crossbar to be completely white?

I dont believe there is any rule on the colour of posts and bar but I would have thought that anything which distracted players could be deemed illegal.

[wykikitoon 20785]

I must admit, I am finished with it. I just dont have the urge for it any more. Football, is, ruined.

 

I only come on here now for the criac and because football has been in my life since I can remember so its not easy just to switch off like a light, but I must admit, its getting easier.

 

The amount of money players are getting is absurbed, its disgusting. The news of things like, Everton not buying because they cant borrow any more, or "Arteta has took a wage cut to join Arsenal" as if were supposed to feel sorry for the multi-millionaire wanting to do that? Eto moving to a team in Dagestan to earn 20.5m Euro's a season! A Multi, millionaire already, going to a country where beheading is the norm! You can all say "Well you cant blame them, blame the clubs etc" but come on, there has to be a point where someone thinks "Hmmm why am I flying in from Moscow every game? Is it because its so fucking dangerous they cant insure me?"

 

I listened to 5Live at the end of the transfer window, it had Robbie Savage on. They way he talks about money is disgusting. He obviously has way too much of it and treats it likes its toilet paper.

 

It has gone too far. Football is corrupt, football is finished for me. When youre shelling out £300k a week to a player who isnt even playing its just a joke, its no longer a working mans sport. The end of the week social, meeting your pals, a few beers and good criac at the football. You have to earn a decent wedge now to go! A match game now for a bloke and his son, costs what? £100? I know times have changed etc since the years when it was 10p to get in etc, but look at the world economy now, its fucked!

 

Is there any way back for football now?

[Happy Face 29]

I've drawn some pictures to show the trends and comparisons....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

All I can credit Ashley with based on those so far is that he's steadied the nose diving losses.

[Christmas Tree 4850]

Statistics eh

 

What I was trying to look at was whether the club is healthier now compared to when he took over thus comparing 07 to 11. Bit like in a business you would look at the kpi's.

 

When you start expanding it like you are doing you are then getting into how he has effected parts of the business, two very different things.

 

You will get no argument from me on has he took us to hell and back'ish and has he left the fanbase fucked off.

[peasepud 59]

Statistics eh

 

What I was trying to look at was whether the club is healthier now compared to when he took over thus comparing 07 to 11. Bit like in a business you would look at the kpi's.

 

When you start expanding it like you are doing you are then getting into how he has effected parts of the business, two very different things.

 

You will get no argument from me on has he took us to hell and back'ish and has he left the fanbase fucked off.

I cant see HFs diagrams (stupid firewall, upload them via the http://www.toontastic/stokoe link man!) so not sure if what hes drawn relates to totally different stuff so apologies if this isnt relevant however the fanbase is a very important aspect to how healthy a club is.

 

I would argue that in every aspect except payment of interest on bank loans this club is no better off than it was pre-Ashley, I could well easily be wrong on that but feel free to prove it with something.