The slippery slope

[Coggeh 0]

The way Newcastle is heading is no surprise in reality but a definte product of the way the premiership is being run itself and how money is destroying football. Where owners invest for short term profit and don't give a sh*t about the fans or the culture of the club. Found the best ever article from an old fanzine written in the late 60's :

"The more we try and make the middle class frightened of coming to games, the more they are excluding us, fencing us in and restricting our movement on the terrace. So bad is this getting that they have put up barriers on the Kop to stop that famous, glorious surge. What next? A ban on singing? No scarves allowed? No standing room? It’s coming unless we do something about it. What the hell is this we keep hearing about family football, more seated accommodation, and restrict movement on the terraces? Is this the fate of football in the future? The game seems to be turning its back on the real supporters in favour of the season-ticket family and their money.

 

"But will Mum, Dad, Auntie Doris and the children go to a game in the middle of winter at the other end of the country when there’s a rail strike? Will they hell! Gordon Jago and Jimmy Hill will destroy football if allowed any sort of administrative power. Their utopia is a spotless, concrete bowl lined with thousands of little plastic seats, lots of clean toilets, a restaurant, a sports complex, piped muzak and 22 clean-cut, goal-hungry young zombies playing the game in a spirit of friendship and sportsmanship on a plasti-grass pitch.

 

They want matches which end in 7-7 draws watched by packed crowds of middle-class parents who have each brought their 2.4 children, who cheer enthusiastically every goal, applaud every exhibition of skill from the opposition and who go home afterwards in their family saloons, all agreeing that they’ve been thoroughly entertained. Bollocks to their visions. It’s on those cold forbidding terraces that you find the central nervous system of football from which the adrenaline rises and the lifeblood flows"

 

Its time to reclaim the game and end being priced out of going to see the teams we love. Boycott matches methinks.

[peasepud 59]

Doing a quick straw poll of attendances over the last 4 complete years and most clubs have lost a negligable amount apart from us (-7.02) and Villa (-7.09).

 

Interestingly Bolton have bucked the trend seeing 10/11 attendances over 9% higher than those in 07/08, coincidence that they were in the FA Cup semi last year? I think not.

[Happy Face 29]

An interesting question would be is NUFC in a better position today than when he bought it?

In 07/08 we finished 12th. In 10/11 we finished 12th. So that’s debts up, attendances down and no progress at all on the pitch. So, based on facts not soothsaying.... no.

 

Hold on cowboy, iirc, when he bought the club we had just finished 13th. The question was compared to when he bought it, not compared to his first full year in charge. (if I am wrong I will humbly apologise).

 

Not sure how interesting the question is given how similar those one off positions are. Probably better to take an average position of the last 3 years before he arrived and compare to the average of the last 3 years. Single seasons can be close things with single points or goal difference losing or gaining several places.

Edited September 4, 2011 by Happy Face

[Christmas Tree 4679]

An interesting question would be is NUFC in a better position today than when he bought it?

In 07/08 we finished 12th. In 10/11 we finished 12th. So that’s debts up, attendances down and no progress at all on the pitch. So, based on facts not soothsaying.... no.

 

Hold on cowboy, iirc, when he bought the club we had just finished 13th. The question was compared to when he bought it, not compared to his first full year in charge. (if I am wrong I will humbly apologise).

It’s a fair cop but makes little difference.

 

Thinking about it another way – are supporters happier today than they were the day before FMA took over?

It’s safe to assume the lost 10,000 aren’t and probably not the 3000 who got kicked out the LC.

 

Sorry to be a stickler, but the average crowd the season before he took over was 50,000.....last year it was 47,000 so thats 3,000

 

I think the happier points a no brainer because of all thats happened.

[peasepud 59]

An interesting question would be is NUFC in a better position today than when he bought it?

In 07/08 we finished 12th. In 10/11 we finished 12th. So that’s debts up, attendances down and no progress at all on the pitch. So, based on facts not soothsaying.... no.

 

Hold on cowboy, iirc, when he bought the club we had just finished 13th. The question was compared to when he bought it, not compared to his first full year in charge. (if I am wrong I will humbly apologise).

It’s a fair cop but makes little difference.

 

Thinking about it another way – are supporters happier today than they were the day before FMA took over?

It’s safe to assume the lost 10,000 aren’t and probably not the 3000 who got kicked out the LC.

 

Sorry to be a stickler, but the average crowd the season before he took over was 50,000.....last year it was 47,000 so thats 3,000

 

I think the happier points a no brainer because of all thats happened.

sorry to be a stickler but you said "are they happier today?" so its about 6k.

[Christmas Tree 4679]

So is NUFC in a healthier state now than when Mike Ashley bought it?

 

Crowds? No. -- down around 3000 since 2007

 

Football wise? Yes. -- Finished 12th as opposed to 13th in 2007

 

Finances? Yes. -- would be my guess simply down to the fact that one man owns it all. No banks, no crippling interest rates.

 

Manager? Yes. -- Allardyce or Pardew. Pardew every day of the week for me.

 

Outlook? Yes. -- The future looked pretty grim back then, it now looks stable, imo.

 

Squad? unsure. -- Wouldnt like to say

 

Stability? Yes. -- Whether its right or not, we now have a workable plan, not dare I say it "kneejerk".

 

Feel free to add any other criteria.

[Christmas Tree 4679]

An interesting question would be is NUFC in a better position today than when he bought it?

In 07/08 we finished 12th. In 10/11 we finished 12th. So that’s debts up, attendances down and no progress at all on the pitch. So, based on facts not soothsaying.... no.

 

Hold on cowboy, iirc, when he bought the club we had just finished 13th. The question was compared to when he bought it, not compared to his first full year in charge. (if I am wrong I will humbly apologise).

It’s a fair cop but makes little difference.

 

Thinking about it another way – are supporters happier today than they were the day before FMA took over?

It’s safe to assume the lost 10,000 aren’t and probably not the 3000 who got kicked out the LC.

 

Sorry to be a stickler, but the average crowd the season before he took over was 50,000.....last year it was 47,000 so thats 3,000

 

I think the happier points a no brainer because of all thats happened.

sorry to be a stickler but you said "are they happier today?" so its about 6k.

 

But in the same way I wouldnt claim 7th in the league today, I wouldnt go off a particular match gate today. You need to look at those things on the years average to compare.

[Dr Gloom 21803]

We weren't in great shape when ashley took charge. There's no doubt about that. We had 3 or 4 poor seasons where everything sir bobby built up was thrown away after a series of stupid sackings and appointments. Hiring and backing souness turned out to be a massive disaster for the club, which was exacerbated by appointing roeder then allardyce.

 

That all said, we were better off then because for all the previous owners' poor decision making, at least they gave a shit about the club. They wanted us to do well. They wanted the fans to be excited about going to the match, i honestly don't think Ashley gives a toss about any of that.

[peasepud 59]

But in the same way I wouldnt claim 7th in the league today, I wouldnt go off a particular match gate today. You need to look at those things on the years average to compare.

To an extent you're right which is backed up by my thread about match by match positions however on attendances I think its fair to say that the averages are ok to use regardless of number of gates.

 

Just to be sure though lets look at the gates for the two games weve played so far:

 

Arsenal 06/07 - 52,293

Arsenal 11/12 - 46,894

Difference - 5399

 

Fulham 06/07 - 50,365

Fulham 11/12 - 42,684

Difference - 7681

 

Average loss since 06/07 = 6540

[Craig 6679]

CT your argument about the stock market crash is seriously flawed, there were few winners out of that, one of them being the fat man himself. He had floated SD and took a massive profit, that was why he decided to buy us. Then the crash came and he bought it all back at a much reduced price.

 

It's seriously flawwed on the grounds that the stock market crash wasn't what affected Ashley's wealth, it was shit investment. I read an article ages ago that stated his wealth when he bought us was around £1.8bn yet 12 months on he was only worth £700m. So in a year he'd lost over £1bn and bear in mind that we're talking about June 2008. The stock market collapse didn't happen until September.

[Christmas Tree 4679]

We weren't in great shape when ashley took charge. There's no doubt about that. We had 3 or 4 poor seasons where everything sir bobby built up was thrown away after a series of stupid sackings and appointments. Hiring and backing souness turned out to be a massive disaster for the club, which was exacerbated by appointing roeder then allardyce.

 

That all said, we were better off then because for all the previous owners' poor decision making, at least they gave a shit about the club. They wanted us to do well. They wanted the fans to be excited about going to the match, i honestly don't think Ashley gives a toss about any of that.

 

Unfortunately that has little bearing on the actual health of the club. Lots of well meaning people fuck things up. (I know what you are getting at though Dr Canny)

[Christmas Tree 4679]

But in the same way I wouldnt claim 7th in the league today, I wouldnt go off a particular match gate today. You need to look at those things on the years average to compare.

To an extent you're right which is backed up by my thread about match by match positions however on attendances I think its fair to say that the averages are ok to use regardless of number of gates.

 

Just to be sure though lets look at the gates for the two games weve played so far:

 

Arsenal 06/07 - 52,293

Arsenal 11/12 - 46,894

Difference - 5399

 

Fulham 06/07 - 50,365

Fulham 11/12 - 42,684

Difference - 7681

 

Average loss since 06/07 = 6540

 

Unfortunately that way is too unreliable and my year average is better.

 

eg in 06/07 Blackburn 51,000

last year Blackburn 41,000

 

That would imply a 10,000 drop yet the yearly average still worked out at only 3,00.

[Dr Gloom 21803]

Crowds have taken a big hit for a read on CT. I can only see hem getting worse as long as he's in charge too.

[Guest Your Name Here]

An interesting question would be is NUFC in a better position today than when he bought it?

In 07/08 we finished 12th. In 10/11 we finished 12th. So that’s debts up, attendances down and no progress at all on the pitch. So, based on facts not soothsaying.... no.

 

Hold on cowboy, iirc, when he bought the club we had just finished 13th. The question was compared to when he bought it, not compared to his first full year in charge. (if I am wrong I will humbly apologise).

It’s a fair cop but makes little difference.

 

Thinking about it another way – are supporters happier today than they were the day before FMA took over?

It’s safe to assume the lost 10,000 aren’t and probably not the 3000 who got kicked out the LC.

 

Sorry to be a stickler, but the average crowd the season before he took over was 50,000.....last year it was 47,000 so thats 3,000

 

I think the happier points a no brainer because of all thats happened.

sorry to be a stickler but you said "are they happier today?" so its about 6k.

It could be argued that’s it’s more than that. As I think you mentioned earlier the club has been benefitting from its commercial growth during the ‘entertainers’ era and gates in the first year of Ashley’s tenure are a reflection of this and not FMA’s leadership.

 

It’s taking FMA a while to undo all the good work that was done before he arrived but he’s getting there, as a like for like comparison illustrates*

 

Fulham (H) 06/07 = 50365. Fulham (H) 11/12 = 42684. Drop in attendance = 7681... and this was before the transfer window shut and the name of the club was removed from the East Stand.

 

Whichever statistical method used the result is always the same. Debt up. Crowds down. More unhappy punters.

*Beat me to it.

Edited September 4, 2011 by Your Name Here

[Christmas Tree 4679]

Crowds have taken a big hit for a read on CT. I can only see hem getting worse as long as he's in charge too.

 

Dont quite understand what "read" means. But crowds have taken a 3,000 hit

[ChezGiven 0]

CT your argument about the stock market crash is seriously flawed, there were few winners out of that, one of them being the fat man himself. He had floated SD and took a massive profit, that was why he decided to buy us. Then the crash came and he bought it all back at a much reduced price.

 

It's seriously flawwed on the grounds that the stock market crash wasn't what affected Ashley's wealth, it was shit investment. I read an article ages ago that stated his wealth when he bought us was around £1.8bn yet 12 months on he was only worth £700m. So in a year he'd lost over £1bn and bear in mind that we're talking about June 2008. The stock market collapse didn't happen until September.

That sounds confused to me. I'd like to see a source for that.

[ChezGiven 0]

But in the same way I wouldnt claim 7th in the league today, I wouldnt go off a particular match gate today. You need to look at those things on the years average to compare.

To an extent you're right which is backed up by my thread about match by match positions however on attendances I think its fair to say that the averages are ok to use regardless of number of gates.

 

Just to be sure though lets look at the gates for the two games weve played so far:

 

Arsenal 06/07 - 52,293

Arsenal 11/12 - 46,894

Difference - 5399

 

Fulham 06/07 - 50,365

Fulham 11/12 - 42,684

Difference - 7681

 

Average loss since 06/07 = 6540

 

Unfortunately that way is too unreliable and my year average is better.

 

eg in 06/07 Blackburn 51,000

last year Blackburn 41,000

 

That would imply a 10,000 drop yet the yearly average still worked out at only 3,00.

 

You are correct and also understand how averages work.

[Guest Your Name Here]

We weren't in great shape when ashley took charge. There's no doubt about that. We had 3 or 4 poor seasons where everything sir bobby built up was thrown away after a series of stupid sackings and appointments. Hiring and backing souness turned out to be a massive disaster for the club, which was exacerbated by appointing roeder then allardyce.

 

That all said, we were better off then because for all the previous owners' poor decision making, at least they gave a shit about the club. They wanted us to do well. They wanted the fans to be excited about going to the match, i honestly don't think Ashley gives a toss about any of that.

 

Unfortunately that has little bearing on the actual health of the club. Lots of well meaning people fuck things up. (I know what you are getting at though Dr Canny)

But it does because football is all about aspiration. Supporters don’t turn up to cheer on a balance sheet; they turn up to cheer on a team that represents them and their community striving to better itself on the field of play. The team and the club are both extensions of the suppoters and the place they live.

 

A club that is content to trundle along doing fuck all is hardly a football club at all. Clubs represent communities and if the owner doesn’t give a fuck it sends out the following message to the world....

 

Welcome to Newcastle, a city with no pride or determination. A city that lacks confidence and is scared to try in case it fails. A city that is content to be an also ran

 

It’s not a message people will want to be associated with for long.

[Craig 6679]

CT your argument about the stock market crash is seriously flawed, there were few winners out of that, one of them being the fat man himself. He had floated SD and took a massive profit, that was why he decided to buy us. Then the crash came and he bought it all back at a much reduced price.

 

It's seriously flawwed on the grounds that the stock market crash wasn't what affected Ashley's wealth, it was shit investment. I read an article ages ago that stated his wealth when he bought us was around £1.8bn yet 12 months on he was only worth £700m. So in a year he'd lost over £1bn and bear in mind that we're talking about June 2008. The stock market collapse didn't happen until September.

That sounds confused to me. I'd like to see a source for that.

 

I wish I knew what it was..

 

Definitely remember reading about it though and that it was 12 months after he bought us as I made the mental reference that he'd lost a massive amount. If anyone can find a source for Ashley's wealth year upon year that either proves or disproves it I'd be more than happy.

 

Times rich list perhaps?

[ChezGiven 0]

We weren't in great shape when ashley took charge. There's no doubt about that. We had 3 or 4 poor seasons where everything sir bobby built up was thrown away after a series of stupid sackings and appointments. Hiring and backing souness turned out to be a massive disaster for the club, which was exacerbated by appointing roeder then allardyce.

 

That all said, we were better off then because for all the previous owners' poor decision making, at least they gave a shit about the club. They wanted us to do well. They wanted the fans to be excited about going to the match, i honestly don't think Ashley gives a toss about any of that.

 

Unfortunately that has little bearing on the actual health of the club. Lots of well meaning people fuck things up. (I know what you are getting at though Dr Canny)

But it does because football is all about aspiration. Supporters don’t turn up to cheer on a balance sheet; they turn up to cheer on a team that represents them and their community striving to better itself on the field of play. The team and the club are both extensions of the suppoters and the place they live.

 

A club that is content to trundle along doing fuck all is hardly a football club at all. Clubs represent communities and if the owner doesn’t give a fuck it sends out the following message to the world....

 

Welcome to Newcastle, a city with no pride or determination. A city that lacks confidence and is scared to try in case it fails. A city that is content to be an also ran

 

It’s not a message people will want to be associated with for long.

The players still want to come fortunately, not sure how long that will last though. We're a second tier premiership club for now, even relegation hasnt affected our ability to attract players too much. Its our willingness to pay for them that is the problem.

[Craig 6679]

CT your argument about the stock market crash is seriously flawed, there were few winners out of that, one of them being the fat man himself. He had floated SD and took a massive profit, that was why he decided to buy us. Then the crash came and he bought it all back at a much reduced price.

 

It's seriously flawwed on the grounds that the stock market crash wasn't what affected Ashley's wealth, it was shit investment. I read an article ages ago that stated his wealth when he bought us was around £1.8bn yet 12 months on he was only worth £700m. So in a year he'd lost over £1bn and bear in mind that we're talking about June 2008. The stock market collapse didn't happen until September.

That sounds confused to me. I'd like to see a source for that.

 

I wish I knew what it was..

 

Definitely remember reading about it though and that it was 12 months after he bought us as I made the mental reference that he'd lost a massive amount. If anyone can find a source for Ashley's wealth year upon year that either proves or disproves it I'd be more than happy.

 

Times rich list perhaps?

 

Fuck it, I've got my figures wrong. He lost circa £700m (Actually only £600m), he didn't go down to that. Apologies

 

In 2007 he was worth £1.9bn. In April 2008 he was worth £1.398bn (Source: http://www.trophy4toon.co.uk/mikeashleydiaries.html)

[Guest Your Name Here]

But in the same way I wouldnt claim 7th in the league today, I wouldnt go off a particular match gate today. You need to look at those things on the years average to compare.

To an extent you're right which is backed up by my thread about match by match positions however on attendances I think its fair to say that the averages are ok to use regardless of number of gates.

 

Just to be sure though lets look at the gates for the two games weve played so far:

 

Arsenal 06/07 - 52,293

Arsenal 11/12 - 46,894

Difference - 5399

 

Fulham 06/07 - 50,365

Fulham 11/12 - 42,684

Difference - 7681

 

Average loss since 06/07 = 6540

 

Unfortunately that way is too unreliable and my year average is better.

eg in 06/07 Blackburn 51,000

last year Blackburn 41,000

 

That would imply a 10,000 drop yet the yearly average still worked out at only 3,00.

No it’s not. Your method assumes things aren’t getting worse, that an attendance ten months* ago reflects where we are now.

 

* Before we sold Carroll, before we were misled about the money being reinvested, before the LC was closed, before the name of the club was removed from the east stand, before non members were banned from buying tickets for away games, before ST holders were forced to pay extra for a membership they didn’t want, before we sold Nolan, Enrique and Barton, before we spent £1m in the close season strengthening the squad etc etc

[Craig 6679]

....and the following year was when his wealth halved to £700m.

[Christmas Tree 4679]

We weren't in great shape when ashley took charge. There's no doubt about that. We had 3 or 4 poor seasons where everything sir bobby built up was thrown away after a series of stupid sackings and appointments. Hiring and backing souness turned out to be a massive disaster for the club, which was exacerbated by appointing roeder then allardyce.

 

That all said, we were better off then because for all the previous owners' poor decision making, at least they gave a shit about the club. They wanted us to do well. They wanted the fans to be excited about going to the match, i honestly don't think Ashley gives a toss about any of that.

 

Unfortunately that has little bearing on the actual health of the club. Lots of well meaning people fuck things up. (I know what you are getting at though Dr Canny)

But it does because football is all about aspiration. Supporters don’t turn up to cheer on a balance sheet; they turn up to cheer on a team that represents them and their community striving to better itself on the field of play. The team and the club are both extensions of the suppoters and the place they live.

 

A club that is content to trundle along doing fuck all is hardly a football club at all. Clubs represent communities and if the owner doesn’t give a fuck it sends out the following message to the world....

 

Welcome to Newcastle, a city with no pride or determination. A city that lacks confidence and is scared to try in case it fails. A city that is content to be an also ran

 

It’s not a message people will want to be associated with for long.

 

Nice phrases but not things that can be meausred..

 

The thread started with pud setting out where he sees us going.

I have then argues that failing anyone willing to chuck massive money at the club, the current business plan they are following is probably the best one. No one has offered forward a different one.

The third part of this thread was trying to look at whether NUFC is more healthy now than when he took over. Tbf, its a pretty close call and for me he just gets the nod having gotten to frips with our financial plight.

 

This talk of club representing a community and we should be doing this and that is all well and good, but veers away from what is being discussed and simply muddys the waters.

 

Like a solid marriage, the club and the community have had good times and bad and will always prevail.

[ChezGiven 0]

CT your argument about the stock market crash is seriously flawed, there were few winners out of that, one of them being the fat man himself. He had floated SD and took a massive profit, that was why he decided to buy us. Then the crash came and he bought it all back at a much reduced price.

 

It's seriously flawwed on the grounds that the stock market crash wasn't what affected Ashley's wealth, it was shit investment. I read an article ages ago that stated his wealth when he bought us was around £1.8bn yet 12 months on he was only worth £700m. So in a year he'd lost over £1bn and bear in mind that we're talking about June 2008. The stock market collapse didn't happen until September.

That sounds confused to me. I'd like to see a source for that.

 

I wish I knew what it was..

 

Definitely remember reading about it though and that it was 12 months after he bought us as I made the mental reference that he'd lost a massive amount. If anyone can find a source for Ashley's wealth year upon year that either proves or disproves it I'd be more than happy.

 

Times rich list perhaps?

He lost money from the IPO in 2007, he floated at 300 pence a share and sold 40%, keeping 60%. The 60% kept was worth £1.4bn, investors owning £850m ish. The share price fucked off to about 100 pence valuing that 60% at £460m representing a temporary paper loss of £800m which would adjust on a daily basis. Its back up over 220 pence now and he bought 10% at the bottom. Thats probably what you are referring to.