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Italy gone.


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Did anyone really think that Italy would be able to get through this thing without needing a bailout? Just when you thought that things in Europe could get back to normal for a little while, here comes Italy. On Friday, there was a bit of a "mini-panic" as investors started dumping Italian financial assets. European officials are concerned that the sovereign debt crisis that has ravaged Greece, Ireland and Portugal will now put the Italian economy through the wringer. European Council President Herman Van Rompuy has called an emergency meeting for Monday morning. He is denying that the meeting is about Italy, but everyone knows that Italy is going to be discussed. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet and European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso along with a host of other top officials will also be at this meeting. If it does turn out that Italy needs a bailout, it is going to change the entire game in Europe.

 

What is going on in Italy right now is potentially far more serious than what has been going on in Greece. Italy is the fourth largest economy in the European Union. If Italy requires a bailout, the rest of Europe might not be able to handle it.

 

An anonymous European Central Bank source told one German newspaper the following on Sunday....

 

"The existing rescue fund in Europe is not sufficient to provide a credible defensive wall for Italy"

 

The source also added that the current bailout fund "was never designed for that".

 

Italy has already implemented austerity measures.

 

This was not supposed to happen.

 

But it is happening.

 

This latest crisis was precipitated by a substantial sell-off of Italian financial assets on Friday. An article posted by Bloomberg described the pounding that the two largest Italian banks took....

 

UniCredit SpA (UCG) and Intesa Sanpaolo SpA (ISP), Italy’s biggest banks, fell to the lowest in more than two years in Milan yesterday as contagion from Europe’s debt crisis threatened to spread to the region’s third-largest economy.

 

UniCredit plunged 7.9 percent, the biggest decline since March 30, 2009, while Intesa dropped 4.6 percent. Both hit lows not seen since the period when markets were emerging from the crisis spawned by the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.

 

Unfortunately, this is just the continuation of a trend that has been going on for a while.

 

When you look at them as a group, the stocks of the five largest Italian banks have lost 27% since the beginning of 2011.

 

That is not a good sign.

 

Also, investors are starting to dump Italian government debt. Reuters says that the yield on 10 year Italian bonds is approaching the danger zone....

 

The spread of the Italian 10-year government bond yield over benchmark German Bunds hit euro lifetime highs around 2.45 percentage points on Friday, raising the Italian yield to 5.28 percent, close to the 5.5-5.7 percent area which some bankers think could start putting heavy pressure on Italy's finances.

 

The Italian national debt is now up to about 120 percent of GDP. The Italian government would be able to manage it if interest rates were very, very low. But unfortunately they are rising fast and if they get too much higher they are going to become suffocating.

 

As I have written about previously, government debt becomes very painful once you take low interest rates out of the equation. For example, if Greece could borrow all of the money that it wanted to borrow at zero percent interest, it would not have a debt problem. But now the yield on 2 year Greek bonds is over 30 percent, and there is not a government on the face of the earth that can afford to pay interest that high for long.

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If the Euro was to work, then it should have only had Germany, France and the Benelux countries. Their economies were the soundest generally speaking, and then Spain, Italy et al should have joined when they had sensible economics. It is another case of political deals circumventing economic sense.

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If the Euro was to work, then it should have only had Germany, France and the Benelux countries. Their economies were the soundest generally speaking, and then Spain, Italy et al should have joined when they had sensible economics. It is another case of political deals circumventing economic sense.

 

 

yup

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Lets hope its the death knell of this failed experiment.

 

Amen to that brother.

 

How about getting back to nation states with their own currency, their own armies and their own laws?

 

Radical I know. :rolleyes:

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Lets hope its the death knell of this failed experiment.

 

Amen to that brother.

 

How about getting back to nation states with their own currency, their own armies and their own laws?

 

Radical I know. :D

How does that tie in with the alien theories?? I thought we werent advanced enough to think without boundaries and competition? Now we need borders?

 

:rolleyes:

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Lets hope its the death knell of this failed experiment.

 

Amen to that brother.

 

How about getting back to nation states with their own currency, their own armies and their own laws?

 

Radical I know. :D

How does that tie in with the alien theories?? I thought we werent advanced enough to think without boundaries and competition? Now we need borders?

 

:D

 

It's two curves innit. :rolleyes:

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When the Market loses confidence. That's all that happened with Italy over the last few days, the bond Market is starting to shit itself because we can't sort Greece out. The bond yields are pricing in the risk of political failure elsewhere basically. I'd just abolish ratings agencies and force banks to lend to governments at 2% in return for not nationalising their assets.

 

The bond markets are charging Greece 30% a year or something. Funny to think that it's Chinese banks and Arab oil money etc paying European social security and healthcare at the minute. For an exorbitant return too.

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Countries were supposed to have basic economic criteria in place to qualify for the Euro. I always got the impression these were massively fudged or manipulated by the weaker economies. Looks like all that cheaty bollocks is coming home to roost. Sack the auditors.

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I'd just abolish ratings agencies and force banks to lend to governments at 2% in return for not nationalising their assets.

 

How would that work for global institutions- which governments would they be forced to lend to?

 

Maybe the EU will speed up the process of bolstering bank capital by insisting they hold more highly-rated securities. How about eurozone bonds? That would be convenient.

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Countries were supposed to have basic economic criteria in place to qualify for the Euro. I always got the impression these were massively fudged or manipulated by the weaker economies. Looks like all that cheaty bollocks is coming home to roost. Sack the auditors.

 

 

The eu accounts havent been signed off by the auditors for the last 16yrs.

 

http://www.civitas.org.uk/wordpress/2010/1...nsecutive-year/

 

Massive corruption from the very top to the absolute bottom. I will not shed a tear if it all goes tits up!

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I'd just abolish ratings agencies and force banks to lend to governments at 2% in return for not nationalising their assets.

 

How would that work for global institutions- which governments would they be forced to lend to?

 

Maybe the EU will speed up the process of bolstering bank capital by insisting they hold more highly-rated securities. How about eurozone bonds? That would be convenient.

I wasnt being that serious but there is a fundamentally massive problem when 3 private US institutions control EU fiscal and social policy on the basis of how much shit is coming out of their arse.

 

Isnt the panic about the impact on the Credit Default Swap market? Those toxic instruments that caused this mess?

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