Alan Pardew - Poltroon sacked by a forrin team

[The Fish 10977]

I hope you and fish are right. For now at least, I remain cynical and sceptical about Ashley's motives and his decision making.

 

What do you believe his motives are?

[Dr Gloom 22191]

 

There's nothing to suggest on current evidence that he's the one identifying or appointing.

 

What about all the other points?

The other points are speculation based on what you would like to see him do. My view is based on what he's done previously. Edited March 24, 2015 by Dr Gloom

[Alex 35661]

Hope Fish is right purely for the lolz

[Dr Gloom 22191]

 

What do you believe his motives are?

I have no idea, and I doubt you do either

[Alex 35661]

The other points are speculation based on what you would like to see him do. My view is formed based on what he's done previously.

every single appointment has followed a different pattern so basing anything about future appointments on that is pure speculation too

[The Fish 10977]

I have no idea, and I doubt you do either

 

See, this is why I find it hard to see your point. It all just sounds a bit stroppy.

[Dr Gloom 22191]

 

See, this is why I find it hard to see your point. It all just sounds a bit stroppy.

My point is fairly simple and not too tough to comprehend. Ashley's record at back room staff recruitment is atrocious. So you'll have to forgive me for not sharing your optimism about him appointing a top quality foreign coach and sanctioning a "root and branch" squad overhaul in the summer.

[Dr Gloom 22191]

every single appointment has followed a different pattern so basing anything about future appointments on that is pure speculation too

The one pattern I see is they've been mostly shit.

[Happy Face 29]

What we had before Ashley and what we have with Ashley is a club that has to pay for itself. No change.

 

With Ashley the club doesn't have to pay any dividends, board member salaries for 8 people in the same families and exorbitant rates of interest. The previous owners got away with that level of waste by borrowing more money to spend and keep fans deluded that we were a strong club. They were always happy that there would be another TV deal around the corner. The problem came when we had to recalibrate our spending to pay the bills, even with the new TV deals.

 

For example, the 2 biggest net spends in the history of Newcastle United were in succesive years in 01/02 and 02/03. Bellamy, Robert, Jenas, Viana, Bramble Woodgate and Ambrose were bought at a cost of £45m with literally nothing recouped whatsoever. This was fine, because a new TV deal started soon (03/04), however because we spent big on borrowing it had to be repaid when that TV deal kicked in, so in 03/04 we bought no-one. We sold Solano and Cort to turn a small profit, then we had to sell Speed and Woodgate to meet costs. Every other club was rolling in cash and improving their squad while ours was worsening, so we finished 14th the following year.

 

Ashley is taking the opposite view. He is not spending a single penny the club does not already have. Even wages are accounted for up to the end of a contract when a player is bought, so the club are not caught short with expensive wage bills 3 years down the line on a player who wasn't good enough and is rotting in the reserves. It's an infuriatingly riskl averse strategy, but longer term it means all the money the club earns can pay for new players, facilities, managers, coaches etc, rather than going on debt (assuming the debt is now "clear")

 

What this has led to is (almost) a year on year increase on gross spending that need not necessarily end at any point....

 

 

I've left out 2014, where we bought no-one. That was a gamble that paid off, we could have gone down, but without replacing Cabaye we stayed up, which meant we were closer to the break even point where the club can start progressing sooner.

 

None of this is to say we'll soon be challenging for Europe or that other clubs won't continue to outspend us. We're just much less prone to Summers where we stagnate as we pay off the debts.

[The Fish 10977]

The one pattern I see is they've been mostly shit.

[Dr Gloom 22191]

 

 

The one pattern I see is they've been mostly shit.

Who were the good ones? I gave you Keegan already but he wasn't prepared to work for Ashley. Hughton was canny but he was a cheap gamble, not the glamour appointment you reckon we're on the verge of making, then he was sacked for doing a good job.

[The Fish 10977]

That's not where I was looking for patterns.

 

(Carr by the way, and I'll concede that Pardew did the job Ashley wanted so he'd say it was a good appointment.)

[Dr Gloom 22191]

What we had before Ashley and what we have with Ashley is a club that has to pay for itself. No change.

 

With Ashley the club doesn't have to pay any dividends, board member salaries for 8 people in the same families and exorbitant rates of interest. The previous owners got away with that level of waste by borrowing more money to spend and keep fans deluded that we were a strong club. They were always happy that there would be another TV deal around the corner. The problem came when we had to recalibrate our spending to pay the bills, even with the new TV deals.

 

For example, the 2 biggest net spends in the history of Newcastle United were in succesive years in 01/02 and 02/03. Bellamy, Robert, Jenas, Viana, Bramble Woodgate and Ambrose were bought at a cost of £45m with literally nothing recouped whatsoever. This was fine, because a new TV deal started soon (03/04), however because we spent big on borrowing it had to be repaid when that TV deal kicked in, so in 03/04 we bought no-one. We sold Solano and Cort to turn a small profit, then we had to sell Speed and Woodgate to meet costs. Every other club was rolling in cash and improving their squad while ours was worsening, so we finished 14th the following year.

 

Ashley is taking the opposite view. He is not spending a single penny the club does not already have. Even wages are accounted for up to the end of a contract when a player is bought, so the club are not caught short with expensive wage bills 3 years down the line on a player who wasn't good enough and is rotting in the reserves. It's an infuriatingly riskl averse strategy, but longer term it means all the money the club earns can pay for new players, facilities, managers, coaches etc, rather than going on debt (assuming the debt is now "clear")

 

What this has led to is (almost) a year on year increase on gross spending that need not necessarily end at any point....

 

 

I've left out 2014, where we bought no-one. That was a gamble that paid off, we could have gone down, but without replacing Cabaye we stayed up, which meant we were closer to the break even point where the club can start progressing sooner.

 

None of this is to say we'll soon be challenging for Europe or that other clubs won't continue to outspend us. We're just much less prone to Summers where we stagnate as we pay off the debts.

You make some interesting points. But I'm still not optimistic. We'll see what happens in the summer. I'd love it if you're right. I still reckon he'll go for the cheapest option he can get away with - and he was probably hoping carver performed better than he has so he could give him a run out next season on a basic wage of £50 a week and a bonus of 20 cheese and onion pasties for finishing 10th. Even Ashley will struggle to get away with giving Carver the job full time now.

[Happy Face 29]

He might have been convinced if Carver went on a run, but the two options open to Ashley now both come at no personal cost to him whatsoever.

 

Previously, if he wanted a better manager than Kinnear, Hughton or Pardew, he was the one that put the money into the club to pay the wages. If he wanted to keep Carroll or cabaye, it was £50m of debts to him that the club couldn't pay.

 

As someone who didn't want to spend any of his own money, he only had one option really, bring in the best that the club could afford without making a loss.

 

Now thatthe debts are paid and the club is profiotable to the tune of tens of millions he can keep going for the cheap option or not. Either the club will get richer while stagnating or it will get better. But if he wants 52,000 cheering fans involved with the promotion of his shop, he's more likley to sanction the club spending what it can afford and bringing in fans to watch.

[Dr Gloom 22191]

He might have been convinced if Carver went on a run, but the two options open to Ashley now both come at no personal cost to him whatsoever.

 

Previously, if he wanted a better manager than Kinnear, Hughton or Pardew, he was the one that put the money into the club to pay the wages. If he wanted to keep Carroll or cabaye, it was £50m of debts to him that the club couldn't pay.

 

As someone who didn't want to spend any of his own money, he only had one option really, bring in the best that the club could afford without making a loss.

 

Now thatthe debts are paid and the club is profiotable to the tune of tens of millions he can keep going for the cheap option or not. Either the club will get richer while stagnating or it will get better. But if he wants 52,000 cheering fans involved with the promotion of his shop, he's more likley to sanction the club spending what it can afford and bringing in fans to watch.

More stagnation would surprise me less than Garde or de Boer appointed manager and backed with a transfer war chest. That's just how Ashley rolls.

[Kid Dynamite 7191]

Our best bet for getting a new manager is to finish 16th/17th

[The Fish 10977]

More stagnation would surprise me less than Garde or de Boer appointed manager and backed with a transfer war chest. That's just how Ashley rolls.

Don't confuse me expecting a new European coach and a good few new players as any indication that I think we'll suddenly be playing great football in the upper reaches of the premier league winning us plaudits and pots.

 

The trajectory of Ashley's ambition is a long slow gradual incline with minimal risk. Keeping Carver (or signing Hockaday) is too much of a risk to that trajectory.

[Park Life 71]

Carver won't be manager at the start of next season. Stop the anguish.

[Dr Gloom 22191]

Carver won't be manager at the start of next season. Stop the anguish.

[McFaul 35]

Carver won't be manager at the start of next season. Stop the anguish.

Well for the second year running I won't be buying a season ticket. I hate Ashley so much, it won't disappear when he's not here, he's completely ruined the persona of NUFC beyond belief. We've went from arguably being Britain's most interesting club, to more plastic than 90% of fuckin vibrators. I wonder what he does of a night time Ashley. £4bn in the bank. I guarantee there's £2,000 an hour boilers flown in from California and Japan, fuckin fat cunt I hate you!

[Kitman 2207]

I hope HF is right about our trajectory. However since the days of our first 5 year "plan" under Ashley its always been jam tomorrow. Only to find the fat fucker has eaten all the jam and curled one off into the jar instead.

[scoobos 298]

Going to piss people off here, but anyone been watching the Palace games?

 

It's much more positive than the football we ever played, and he's produced a good team out of a shower of shite.

 

Putting pressure on him, rather than ashley will turn out to be a big mistake when O'Leary's in next year. (Who I thought was a good manager years ago, but he's been out for far too long)

[McFaul 35]

Going to piss people off here, but anyone been watching the Palace games?

 

It's much more positive than the football we ever played, and he's produced a good team out of a shower of shite.

 

Putting pressure on him, rather than ashley will turn out to be a big mistake when O'Leary's in next year. (Who I thought was a good manager years ago, but he's been out for far too long)

See where he is this time next year.

[Happy Face 29]

Going to piss people off here, but anyone been watching the Palace games?

 

It's much more positive than the football we ever played, and he's produced a good team out of a shower of shite.

 

Putting pressure on him, rather than ashley will turn out to be a big mistake when O'Leary's in next year. (Who I thought was a good manager years ago, but he's been out for far too long)

Ben arfa was much more positive for a year. And Gouffran. Takes time and a few trouncings to get the nerves running through a club and put the shackles on players.

[The Fish 10977]

O'Leary?

 

Get a grip