Rob W 0 Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 Stats show we currently have the following likelihood of finishing - we#re now 44% as good as Chelsea (was 28% at start of season) 1 - 0% 2 - 0% 3 - 1% 4 - 4% 5 - 7% 6 - 10% 7 - 12% 8 - 12% 9 - 14% 10- 9% 11- 8% 12- 7% 13- 5% 14- 4% 15- 3% 16- 2% 17- 1% 18- 0.5% 19- 0.1% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JawD 99 Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 Top half would be a damn impressive season all things considered tbf. Question is whether the club have the balls to build on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewerk 31238 Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 I'd certainly take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Gloom 22216 Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 If we finish 9th, hughton will be a contender for manager of the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamesD 0 Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 Arsenal Chelsea United Villa Everton Spurs Liverpool City ------ 9th is way, way too optimistic IMO. You'd have to finish just behind them, and lets face it, that's not going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeazesMag 0 Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 Stats show we currently have the following likelihood of finishing - we#re now 44% as good as Chelsea (was 28% at start of season) 1 - 0% 2 - 0% 3 - 1% 4 - 4% 5 - 7% 6 - 10% 7 - 12% 8 - 12% 9 - 14% 10- 9% 11- 8% 12- 7% 13- 5% 14- 4% 15- 3% 16- 2% 17- 1% 18- 0.5% 19- 0.1% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wavey Davey 0 Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 Survival is the key. I'd wank me cock off if we were guaranteed 9th right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest alex Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 According to that we're 4x more likely to come 4th than 17th which sounds like a load of shite to me. I'd be delighted with anywhere near a top half finish like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheMoog 0 Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 ArsenalChelsea United Villa Everton Spurs Liverpool City ------ 9th is way, way too optimistic IMO. You'd have to finish just behind them, and lets face it, that's not going to happen. I think you putting us in at 3rd is far more optimistic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamesD 0 Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 ArsenalChelsea United Villa Everton Spurs Liverpool City ------ 9th is way, way too optimistic IMO. You'd have to finish just behind them, and lets face it, that's not going to happen. I think you putting us in at 3rd is far more optimistic! That list is in no order as well btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob W 0 Posted November 15, 2010 Author Share Posted November 15, 2010 According to that we're 4x more likely to come 4th than 17th which sounds like a load of shite to me. I'd be delighted with anywhere near a top half finish like. obviously no understanding of Monte Carlo Simulation - get back to your BA course in designing packets of crisps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChezGiven 0 Posted November 15, 2010 Share Posted November 15, 2010 I'm guessing you have less experience than me in stochastic modelling, so pipe down Rob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbsweeney 0 Posted November 15, 2010 Share Posted November 15, 2010 I'd wank me cock off if we were guaranteed 9th right now. Gentle, gentle ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peasepud 59 Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 Survival is the key. I'd wank me cock off if we were guaranteed 9th right now. tbf Id wank your cock off if it guaranteed us 9th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob W 0 Posted November 16, 2010 Author Share Posted November 16, 2010 I'm guessing you have less experience than me in stochastic modelling, so pipe down Rob. TBF I have dabbled for years and use the results all the time - also spend far too much of my time working on Monte Carlo risk distributions TBH Smoke & mirrors if you ask me but if fools the management Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tinofbeans 91 Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 i see us finishing 12th to 14th. there is no reasoning behind this statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meenzer 15754 Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 I'm guessing you have less experience than me in stochastic modelling, so pipe down Rob. TBF I have dabbled for years and use the results all the time - also spend far too much of my time working on Monte Carlo risk distributions TBH Fond of TBH distributions, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest alex Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 (edited) According to that we're 4x more likely to come 4th than 17th which sounds like a load of shite to me. I'd be delighted with anywhere near a top half finish like. obviously no understanding of Monte Carlo Simulation - get back to your BA course in designing packets of crisps Is that something to do with losing bets to do with Formula 1? If so, I bow to your greater knowledge on the subject. Tell me though, my assessment of what you posted was that the stats claim we have a 4% chance of coming 4th and a 1% chance of coming 17th. I took that to mean we have a 4x greater chance of coming 4th than we have of coming 17th. If that's not the case, explain why not. Edited November 16, 2010 by alex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChezGiven 0 Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 I'm guessing you have less experience than me in stochastic modelling, so pipe down Rob. TBF I have dabbled for years and use the results all the time - also spend far too much of my time working on Monte Carlo risk distributions TBH Smoke & mirrors if you ask me but if fools the management I'd have stuck a 'Bayesian prior' on the fact that if something can go wrong for the club, it will. That would have reduced the likelihood of us finishing anywhere near the top half. Based on observed performances (frequentist), likelihood is we might do well. Based on having supported this club for 30 odd years (Bayesian), likellihood is we will fuck it right up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeazesMag 0 Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 According to that we're 4x more likely to come 4th than 17th which sounds like a load of shite to me. I'd be delighted with anywhere near a top half finish like. obviously no understanding of Monte Carlo Simulation - get back to your BA course in designing packets of crisps Is that something to do with losing bets to do with Formula 1? If so, I bow to your greater knowledge on the subject. Tell me though, my assessment of what you posted was that the stats claim we have a 4% chance of coming 4th and a 1% chance of coming 17th. I took that to mean we have a 4x greater chance of coming 4th than we have of coming 17th. If that's not the case, explain why not. just get to the point Alex and tell him he's posted a load of meaningless, sad, statistical shite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest alex Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 According to that we're 4x more likely to come 4th than 17th which sounds like a load of shite to me. I'd be delighted with anywhere near a top half finish like. obviously no understanding of Monte Carlo Simulation - get back to your BA course in designing packets of crisps Is that something to do with losing bets to do with Formula 1? If so, I bow to your greater knowledge on the subject. Tell me though, my assessment of what you posted was that the stats claim we have a 4% chance of coming 4th and a 1% chance of coming 17th. I took that to mean we have a 4x greater chance of coming 4th than we have of coming 17th. If that's not the case, explain why not. just get to the point Alex and tell him he's posted a load of meaningless, sad, statistical shite. Thought I'd leave to you, you're better at it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peasepud 59 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 According to that we're 4x more likely to come 4th than 17th which sounds like a load of shite to me. I'd be delighted with anywhere near a top half finish like. obviously no understanding of Monte Carlo Simulation - get back to your BA course in designing packets of crisps Is that something to do with losing bets to do with Formula 1? If so, I bow to your greater knowledge on the subject. Tell me though, my assessment of what you posted was that the stats claim we have a 4% chance of coming 4th and a 1% chance of coming 17th. I took that to mean we have a 4x greater chance of coming 4th than we have of coming 17th. If that's not the case, explain why not. just get to the point Alex and tell him he's posted a load of meaningless, sad, statistical shite. Thought I'd leave to you, you're better at it hes definitely more diplomatic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trophyshy 7084 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 tbf if I was paying for the Times online I would want to at least feel I was getting my money's worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob W 0 Posted November 17, 2010 Author Share Posted November 17, 2010 According to that we're 4x more likely to come 4th than 17th which sounds like a load of shite to me. I'd be delighted with anywhere near a top half finish like. obviously no understanding of Monte Carlo Simulation - get back to your BA course in designing packets of crisps Is that something to do with losing bets to do with Formula 1? If so, I bow to your greater knowledge on the subject. Tell me though, my assessment of what you posted was that the stats claim we have a 4% chance of coming 4th and a 1% chance of coming 17th. I took that to mean we have a 4x greater chance of coming 4th than we have of coming 17th. If that's not the case, explain why not. just get to the point Alex and tell him he's posted a load of meaningless, sad, statistical shite. God forbid anyone would try and add any rational argument to their Universe eh Leazes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest alex Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Ignoring my question I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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