Points points points

[Rob W 0]

A quick perusal of the numbers shows that in the PL (since they went to 38 games a season in 1995-96) the critical numbers are

 

Champions - range 75-95 average 86.53

 

Yurop (excluding teams who got in by coming 2nd in a Cup Final etc) 55-67 average 61.13

 

The DROP - 30-42 average 35.80

[Tom 14021]

I bet you had to do the numbers after the Mary Rose sank eh?

[Andrew 4929]

36 is the supposed target then

[peasepud 59]

36 is the supposed target then

 

I would have said 43 is seeing as the average for the drop is 35.8

[LeazesMag 0]

36 is the supposed target then

 

I would have said 43 is seeing as the average for the drop is 35.8

 

 

or 43.1 to be sure.

[Rob W 0]

36 is the supposed target then

 

I would have said 43 is seeing as the average for the drop is 35.8

 

 

No - 35.8 is the average for the team finishing in 18th place - we need to do better than that (on average )

[ChezGiven 0]

On the topic of relegation, i was checking out the odds yesterday and we are something like between 2/1 and 11/4 odds to go down (or 3 to 3.75)

 

In probability terms, thats 66% to 73% chance of being relegated. Expressed like that makes it seem virtually a foregone conclusion.

[Guest alex]

On the topic of relegation, i was checking out the odds yesterday and we are something like between 2/1 and 11/4 odds to go down (or 3 to 3.75)

 

In probability terms, thats 66% to 73% chance of being relegated. Expressed like that makes it seem virtually a foregone conclusion.

No, it's between a 66% and a 73% chance of staying up - unless you've written that the wrong way round.

[LeazesMag 0]

On the topic of relegation, i was checking out the odds yesterday and we are something like between 2/1 and 11/4 odds to go down (or 3 to 3.75)

 

In probability terms, thats 66% to 73% chance of being relegated. Expressed like that makes it seem virtually a foregone conclusion.

 

throw the towel in now then

[accadacca 0]

A quick perusal of the numbers shows that in the PL (since they went to 38 games a season in 1995-96) the critical numbers are

 

Champions - range 75-95 average 86.53

 

Yurop (excluding teams who got in by coming 2nd in a Cup Final etc) 55-67 average 61.13

 

The DROP - 30-42 average 35.80

 

 

34 will see survival this coming season as most clubs are capable of beating each other on their day

 

I think 34 is a big ask even if a decent centre half is signed.

 

Blackpool have NO chance, whilst WBA havent got a prayer of getting 30.

[The Fish 11020]

I think we have to assume we're amongst the favourites for the drop right now. Although I'll be curious to see how Bolton, Fulham and Wolves fare this season, I still think they've better squads than we do.

 

(I say fulham because I'm not sure how big an impact Hodgson had on them, was he getting the best out of very average players?)

[ChezGiven 0]

On the topic of relegation, i was checking out the odds yesterday and we are something like between 2/1 and 11/4 odds to go down (or 3 to 3.75)

 

In probability terms, thats 66% to 73% chance of being relegated. Expressed like that makes it seem virtually a foregone conclusion.

No, it's between a 66% and a 73% chance of staying up - unless you've written that the wrong way round.

 

Really? Makes me feel a lot better (Parky is right, i worry about stats too much).

 

However, if the odds of going down are 11/4, then the probability = odds / (1 + odds) where the odds are expressed as a decimal. Which is 2.75/3.75.

 

Also, if we are 2/1 to go down, doesnt that make it > evens, which is a probability of 50%?

[Guest alex]

On the topic of relegation, i was checking out the odds yesterday and we are something like between 2/1 and 11/4 odds to go down (or 3 to 3.75)

 

In probability terms, thats 66% to 73% chance of being relegated. Expressed like that makes it seem virtually a foregone conclusion.

No, it's between a 66% and a 73% chance of staying up - unless you've written that the wrong way round.

 

Really? Makes me feel a lot better (Parky is right, i worry about stats too much).

 

However, if the odds of going down are 11/4, then the probability = odds / (1 + odds) where the odds are expressed as a decimal. Which is 2.75/3.75.

 

Also, if we are 2/1 to go down, doesnt that make it > evens, which is a probability of 50%?

Yeah, but it's odds against. I.e. if we're evens to go down it's 50-50, if we're 2-1 to go down it's like saying we have a one in three chance of going down or a two in three (67%) chance of staying up. If it was the other way round, i.e. a one in three chance of staying up the odds on our being relegated would be expressed as 1/2 (i.e. usually said as two-to-one on). Likewise, 11-4 to go down means they think we only have a 4 in 15 chance of ending up in the bottom three. Which should make you feel a bit better.

As for decimal odds they're expressed as how much money you get back including the stake you place on the basis that you've staked one unit. So Evens is '2' in decimal odds, i.e. you get your quid stake back plus a quid winnings. Once you know how decimal odds work they're easier as you just multiply your stake by the odds to get your potential return. I hope that makes sense.

[Rob W 0]

the young shaver is correct

 

i can't see Blackpool surviving and W Brom are worse than we are and already expect to yo-yo up and down - we just have to find one more loser........ where's my ticket on the Metro...........