Spain about to go belly up?

[Park Life 71]

The Parky radar notices its 400b euro credit line from the ECB ends 1st of July.

 

Spain's banks are a little flustered right now about the possibility that the ECB might take away its special €442 billion funding facility, according to the FT.

 

Since one year there is a monetary facility provided by the ECB, which was used to inject additional cash into the financial system.

 

This facility, will expire this week, on the 1st July, without any back-up plans by the ECB.

 

The ECB's plan to allow the funding facility to expire have been labeled "absurd" by Spanish banks lobbying for its continuation.

 

You can see what Spanish banks are worried about. Here's a chart detailing the liquidity drop off if the ECB allows the fund to expire on July 1:

Edited June 29, 2010 by Park Life

[Kevin 1]

The Parky radar notices its 400b euro credit line from the ECB ends 1st of July.

 

Spain's banks are a little flustered right now about the possibility that the ECB might take away its special €442 billion funding facility, according to the FT.

 

Since one year there is a monetary facility provided by the ECB, which was used to inject additional cash into the financial system.

 

This facility, will expire this week, on the 1st July, without any back-up plans by the ECB.

 

The ECB's plan to allow the funding facility to expire have been labeled "absurd" by Spanish banks lobbying for its continuation.

 

You can see what Spanish banks are worried about. Here's a chart detailing the liquidity drop off if the ECB allows the fund to expire on July 1:

My birthday.

[Meenzer 15871]

[khay 10]

Would this bugger up Real Madrid?

[Billy Castell 0]

Good thing I didn't get that job at Santander then!

 

P.S. I doubt Real Madrid will be affected. The government and the local council will sell everything to keep them going.

[ChezGiven 0]

Parky's radar

 

Yes, the markets were shitting themselves yesterday about this. The ECB will put refinancing in place today but at around 300bn limit to ensure the correct smoke signals and hand-waves are made at the bond and securities marketz.

[Geordieracer 0]

And the Italians are next - markets will be jumpy as fuck for the forseeable future. Run for the golden hills.

[Dr Gloom 22536]

the take up on the refinancing was much lower than the consensus forecast so it seems the banks are doing better than expected. markets up on the back of today's news.

 

we're not out of the woods just yet mind. liquidity is still tight int he banking system. the soverign debt crisis could spark another banking crisis, a double dip recession and deflation.

 

ah well, at least there's newcastle's barnstorming return to the premier league to look forward to

[Rob W 0]

doubt there'll be a double dip recession - the curve is about the same as the 1979-83 one

[ChezGiven 0]

doubt there'll be a double dip recession - the curve is about the same as the 1979-83 one

 

Was there a massive regional/global fiscal tightening in the midst of a liquidity trap in 1979?

[Rob W 0]

Too young to remember the Second Oil Crisis ????

[Guest Gordon McKeag]

Too young to remember the Second Oil Crisis ????

Don't answer a question with a question of your own you nob I hate that. That chip on your shoulder will be there forever.

[ChezGiven 0]

Too young to remember the Second Oil Crisis ????

 

More political than economic. The circumstances are very different.

[Rob W 0]

German Institute For strategic Political etc etce berlin paper:-

 

The impact on the world economy was different. Worldwide economic growth slightly decreased from 4.7 % in 1978 to 4 % in 1979 and reached its lowest point in 1982 at

0.8 %. It was only two years later that GDP growth reached 4.6 % again. International trade showed greater fluctuation, falling from 5.2 % to -3.1 % in 1982 and jumping to 8.1

% in 1984. Worldwide FDI flows, which grew by more than 25 % in the mid-seventies and until 1980, fell by 15 % in 1981 and 13.5 % in 1982.

 

The developments had a strong impact on the United States’ GDP. GDP growth fell by 0.23 % in 1980 after having been at 3.1 % and 5.5 % in the previous years. A similar

development could be observed in US private consumption, as a major pillar of the US economy. Private consumption dropped by 0.28 % in 1980 after growth rates of

between 2 % and 4 % previously. Unemployment in the US rose from 5.8 % in 1979 to 7.6 % in 1981 and reached its peak at 9.7 % in 1982. Inflation skyrocketed from 7.6 %

in 1978 to 13.5 % in 1980.

 

Although the impact was significant in terms of worldwide and US economic developments, this supply- and price-driven oil shock had only short term repercussions, at least when looking at growth rates after 1982, which skyrocketed from -2 % to 4.5 % and 7 % in the following years. At the same time, inflation could be reduced to 3.5 % - 4 %. Nevertheless, unemployment in the USA remained on a high

[Meenzer 15871]

I know it's been a few years now, but you do realise this is a messageboard and not an other-people's-messageboard, right?

[ChezGiven 0]

German Institute For strategic Political etc etce berlin paper:-

 

The impact on the world economy was different. Worldwide economic growth slightly decreased from 4.7 % in 1978 to 4 % in 1979 and reached its lowest point in 1982 at

0.8 %. It was only two years later that GDP growth reached 4.6 % again. International trade showed greater fluctuation, falling from 5.2 % to -3.1 % in 1982 and jumping to 8.1

% in 1984. Worldwide FDI flows, which grew by more than 25 % in the mid-seventies and until 1980, fell by 15 % in 1981 and 13.5 % in 1982.

 

The developments had a strong impact on the United States’ GDP. GDP growth fell by 0.23 % in 1980 after having been at 3.1 % and 5.5 % in the previous years. A similar

development could be observed in US private consumption, as a major pillar of the US economy. Private consumption dropped by 0.28 % in 1980 after growth rates of

between 2 % and 4 % previously. Unemployment in the US rose from 5.8 % in 1979 to 7.6 % in 1981 and reached its peak at 9.7 % in 1982. Inflation skyrocketed from 7.6 %

in 1978 to 13.5 % in 1980.

 

Although the impact was significant in terms of worldwide and US economic developments, this supply- and price-driven oil shock had only short term repercussions, at least when looking at growth rates after 1982, which skyrocketed from -2 % to 4.5 % and 7 % in the following years. At the same time, inflation could be reduced to 3.5 % - 4 %. Nevertheless, unemployment in the USA remained on a high

 

I bolded the bits i thought were irrelevant.

 

Where in that does it discuss fiscal austerity or a liquidity trap? Where in that is a stagnant economy with low growth, low inflation, low inflation expectations and high unemployment.

 

What the fuck has oil price spikes due to supply shocks got to do with post-recession expansionary economic policy?

Edited July 5, 2010 by ChezGiven

[Guest alex]

[Guest Gordon McKeag]

German Institute For strategic Political etc etce berlin paper:-

 

The impact on the world economy was different. Worldwide economic growth slightly decreased from 4.7 % in 1978 to 4 % in 1979 and reached its lowest point in 1982 at

0.8 %. It was only two years later that GDP growth reached 4.6 % again. International trade showed greater fluctuation, falling from 5.2 % to -3.1 % in 1982 and jumping to 8.1

% in 1984. Worldwide FDI flows, which grew by more than 25 % in the mid-seventies and until 1980, fell by 15 % in 1981 and 13.5 % in 1982.

 

The developments had a strong impact on the United States’ GDP. GDP growth fell by 0.23 % in 1980 after having been at 3.1 % and 5.5 % in the previous years. A similar

development could be observed in US private consumption, as a major pillar of the US economy. Private consumption dropped by 0.28 % in 1980 after growth rates of

between 2 % and 4 % previously. Unemployment in the US rose from 5.8 % in 1979 to 7.6 % in 1981 and reached its peak at 9.7 % in 1982. Inflation skyrocketed from 7.6 %

in 1978 to 13.5 % in 1980.

 

Although the impact was significant in terms of worldwide and US economic developments, this supply- and price-driven oil shock had only short term repercussions, at least when looking at growth rates after 1982, which skyrocketed from -2 % to 4.5 % and 7 % in the following years. At the same time, inflation could be reduced to 3.5 % - 4 %. Nevertheless, unemployment in the USA remained on a high

 

I bolded the bits i thought were irrelevant.

 

Where in that does it discuss fiscal austerity or a liquidity trap? Where in that is a stagnant economy with low growth, low inflation, low inflation expectations and high unemployment.

 

What the fuck has oil price spikes due to supply shocks got to do with post-recession expansionary economic policy?

[Park Life 71]

Gemany has shot upto 4th biggest arms exporter since the Greens/SPD relaxed rules about 5 years ago. Saved its trade balance along with Adidas.

[Rob W 0]

I know it's been a few years now, but you do realise this is a messageboard and not an other-people's-messageboard, right?

 

 

Uh?? What ARE you talkign about FFS??

 

Is that an unknown unknown out there?

[Rob W 0]

Gemany has shot upto 4th biggest arms exporter since the Greens/SPD relaxed rules about 5 years ago.

 

 

as long as you don't go back to delivering them in person like you used to.....................