Magpies must use head start wisely

[Barney 0]

Chris Hughton has already begun work on the transfer strategy that can ease the transition into the Premier League for Newcastle United.

 

MIKE Ashley’s turbulent reign at Newcastle United has been defined by transfer windows.

 

So far we have had the good (January 2010), the bad (summer 2009) and the decidedly ugly (the lamentable efforts at the turn of 2009) – and each time the team’s fortunes have followed the lead of its enigmatic owner.

 

Going into the seventh and arguably most important transfer window of his tenure, it has never been so important that Ashley makes the right call than when he sits down to crunch the numbers with Chris Hughton over the next ten days.

 

It is important the club’s success in the Championship transfer market does not lead to complacency. Ashley and Hughton played a blinder in January but they are up against Russian oligarchs and Arab sheikhs now, not South Yorkshire software experts. It is a big step up – but Ashley and United can count several things in their favour.

 

For a start, clinching promotion before the middle of April grants them a golden opportunity.

 

While several Premier League clubs are still unsure of what division they will be playing in next season, Chris Hughton and his scouting team headed up by Graham Carr can steal a march in the search for that elusive Premier League quality.

 

We are led to believe that has begun already. Feelers have been put out to Portsmouth midfielder Jamie O’Hara and, if Harry Redknapp is to be taken at face value, to Scotland defender Alan Hutton too in a bid to snatch him from Sunderland’s grasp.

 

But Hughton is dealing in circumstances that are unique to a Newcastle United manager. The new philosophy underpinning transfer dealings at St James’ throws up a set of thudding set of questions to which Hughton must provide answers. Chief among them is whether the club is as appealing as they were under the old money-is-no-object regime? And will a transfer budget of around £25million be enough to bring in the kind of quality that will establish them in the top flight? His remit this summer is to add at least five players with Premier League pedigree. His January spree means United have a large enough squad to cover injuries and suspensions – there will be far fewer games in the top flight, remember – but only those with promotion adrenaline still flowing through their veins will believe it is a good enough team to survive without significant reinforcements.

 

Privately, Hughton wants at least five new players. A priority is a fleet-footed central midfielder to complement Kevin Nolan, Joey Barton, Danny Guthrie and Alan Smith, but a right-back to provide competition to further the development of Danny Simpson is another must.

 

Although goals have flowed easily for United, Hughton will also be looking to beef up his striking options. The uncertainty over Steven Taylor, noticeably absent from the celebrations on Monday night, means a central defender may also be added to Hughton’s shopping list.

 

The great unknown is whether United, without the lure of lucrative contracts, remain the draw they were before relegation. Unquestionably, Newcastle can offer a magnificent stage to potential signings. They remain one of the few clubs outside of the established ‘big four’ that can guarantee crowds of over 40,000 and a national profile. It hasn’t always been for the right reasons recently, but United remain a fascination for football fans around the country, and that brings with it a certain cache that other clubs cannot offer.

 

Prove yourself capable of coping with the demands at Newcastle – as opposed to prospering at Birmingham or Stoke City – and people that matter will begin to take notice of you.

 

For young players with England aspirations, that offers an unmistakable appeal. That will be the sales pitch that Hughton will be sharpening. It is a patter he will need to have down to perfection, because United’s newly-imposed wage ceiling will not allow him to match the contracts being offered at Manchester City, Aston Villa or possibly even Sunderland.

 

Are footballers in thrall to their weekly wages to such an extent that United will suffer for Ashley’s prudent approach? Leading football agent Alex Black, who handles the affairs of United midfielder Alan Smith, reckons the club can turn it to their advantage.

 

“Newcastle are still a big draw – it is a fantastic football club with superb facilities and it is a good place for good players to go and play football,” he said.

 

“But part of the reason players might have been attracted to Newcastle in the past was that they were one of the biggest payers in the Premier League – certainly outside the top four and maybe even bigger than some of the top four.

 

“Now I am not privy to Mike Ashley’s thinking this summer but if the reports are correct then the kind of contracts they will be offering this summer will be vastly different, and that will undoubtedly put some off.

 

“You have to question whether those kind of players were going to be going there for the right reasons in the first place. If they can’t see the bigger picture then do Newcastle really want them?

 

“I think Newcastle fans have been surprised that some of the guys that were on big contracts were willing to stay and fight this season in the Championship, but it has created a tremendous spirit that I’m sure Chris Hughton will not want to disrupt.”

 

Black believes the European market will be a source of profit for Newcastle, who remain one of the ‘known’ clubs on the Continent. And he also reckons that they will not have to fight the same credibility war that has hampered previously promoted clubs.

 

But Black warns that a re-aligning of expectations that begun at the start of this season will have to continue in the summer months.

 

“Newcastle fans might not want to hear this but they will probably be competing with the likes of Birmingham and Stoke City, who have been very ambitious recently, for players this summer,” he said. “The Premier League has moved on a lot in the year that Newcastle have been away. But there is a still a tremendous amount of appeal and if a player is offered the same package by Birmingham, Stoke and Newcastle – they are going to go to Newcastle nine times out of ten.”

 

Money makes a difference

 

IT’S not rocket science is it? The Journal’s calculations show clearly that the more a promoted team spends on transfer fees, the more chance it has of staying in the Premier League the following season. A spend of over £20million seems to guarantee safety, although the true figure is probably double that once signing on fees and wages are taken into account.

 

2009/10

 

Burnley (approximate spend £7million) Current league position: 19th

 

Wolves (£15million): 14th

 

Birmingham (£21million): 9th

 

 

2008/9

 

West Bromwich Albion (£15million) Finishing position: 20th (relegated)

 

Hull City (£13.9million): 17th

 

Stoke City (£20million): 12th

 

 

2007/8

 

Sunderland (£40.3million): 15th

 

Birmingham City (£10.25million): 19th (relegated)

 

Derby County (£9.8million): 20th (relegated)

 

Figures taken from www.soccerbase.com

 

The Journal

[peasepud 59]

I think Newcastle fans have been surprised that some of the guys that were on big contracts were willing to stay and fight this season in the Championship, but it has created a tremendous spirit that I’m sure Chris Hughton will not want to disrupt.

 

Loosely translates to.....

 

Dear God! Nooooo Chris, dont sell Alan I'll not get paid!!!!!!!

 

 

[Happy Face 29]

2009/10

 

Burnley (approximate spend £7million) Current league position: 19th

 

Wolves (£15million): 14th

 

Birmingham (£21million): 9th

 

 

2008/9

 

West Bromwich Albion (£15million) Finishing position: 20th (relegated)

 

Hull City (£13.9million): 17th

 

Stoke City (£20million): 12th

 

 

2007/8

 

Sunderland (£40.3million): 15th

 

Birmingham City (£10.25million): 19th (relegated)

 

Derby County (£9.8million): 20th (relegated)

 

Figures taken from www.soccerbase.com

 

The Journal

 

That's crying out for a bubble chart.

[Happy Face 29]

 

Edited April 8, 2010 by Happy Face

[Park Life 71]

Beautiful.

[Barney 0]

 

 

2007

Watford (£4m) : 20th

Sheffield Utd (£9m) : 18th

Reading (£6m): 8th

[Happy Face 29]

2007

Watford (£4m) : 20th

Sheffield Utd (£9m) : 18th

Reading (£6m): 8th

 

 

[NJS 4436]

Probably should also note the Mackems finished lower last year (with shit loads more spent).

[peasepud 59]

Surely it shouldnt be the amount spent on its own but the percentage of the total spend of the Premiership for that year? Or their position in the "spending league" does it mirror the position in the actual one?

 

Did the biggest spenders finish top and the lowest spenders bottom?

[Craig 6700]

 

 

£21 will get us in the top 10?? I'll chip that in myself!

[Happy Face 29]

Surely it shouldnt be the amount spent on its own but the percentage of the total spend of the Premiership for that year? Or their position in the "spending league" does it mirror the position in the actual one?

 

Did the biggest spenders finish top and the lowest spenders bottom?

 

That'd be a lot of work to get the numbers.

 

Interesting to note that in 3 years only 3 teams have spent less than £14m having been promoted, and none of them survived.

[The Fish 11029]

If we're fucking about with Graphs, can you throw a couple of Venn Diagrams my way?

 

I bloody love a good Venn Diagram, me.

 

( I did a spread sheet tracking our performance this year. and only managed a couple of charts tracking actual performance versus predicted and potential and a pie-chart depicting accuracy of my predictions... yes my job affords me that much time.)

[sammynb 3609]

It would be better if it was colour coded with either the club it is referring to colours or at least some instant reference to which balloon is which balloon.

It the moment it just looks like a bunch of over priced purple balloons

[Monroe Transfer 0]

I keep hearing about this £25k wage ceiling thing but if it genuinely exists, it's more of a guideline than a rule isn't it?