Rob W 0 Posted December 8, 2009 Share Posted December 8, 2009 Anyone see the table in the Times on Saturday? they'd run the WC through 200,000 times and reckon that a lot of teams should make the final but the chances of winning aren't that good for anyone - I think Brazil had a 35% chance of reaching the final but only a 24% chance of winning Engerlund were 19% and 10% respectively Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Park Life 71 Posted December 8, 2009 Share Posted December 8, 2009 Did they build in cheating type handball scenarios. If so Arg and italy win every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meenzer 15921 Posted December 8, 2009 Share Posted December 8, 2009 http://extras.timesonline.co.uk/pdfs/sport...ktank051209.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob W 0 Posted December 10, 2009 Author Share Posted December 10, 2009 (edited) http://extras.timesonline.co.uk/pdfs/sport...ktank051209.pdf that's it my Jorman Freund Edited December 10, 2009 by Rob W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest alex Posted December 10, 2009 Share Posted December 10, 2009 The bookies are being quite generous towards Brazil if that's accurate. Which I have my doubts about like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonTheMag 4 Posted December 10, 2009 Share Posted December 10, 2009 What simulator did they run that through? Football manager? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitman 2207 Posted December 11, 2009 Share Posted December 11, 2009 Anyone see the table in the Times on Saturday? they'd run the WC through 200,000 times and reckon that a lot of teams should make the final but the chances of winning aren't that good for anyone - I think Brazil had a 35% chance of reaching the final but only a 24% chance of winning Engerlund were 19% and 10% respectively The Sun will currently have an 80% rating increasing to 99.99% as the tournament approaches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyluke 2 Posted December 13, 2009 Share Posted December 13, 2009 It's all very arbitrary though isn't it. According to that table five teams have a 0% chance of reaching the final. They reached the final in 0% of their simulations, that doesn't mean it is impossible for them to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob W 0 Posted December 15, 2009 Author Share Posted December 15, 2009 What simulator did they run that through? Football manager? they build a model based on previous results and then run it through a Monte Carlo simulator about 250,000 times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob W 0 Posted December 15, 2009 Author Share Posted December 15, 2009 It's all very arbitrary though isn't it. According to that table five teams have a 0% chance of reaching the final. They reached the final in 0% of their simulations, that doesn't mean it is impossible for them to do so. If you read the small print they state that "every team CAN win but anyone who had less than a 1% chance (eg New Zealand = 0.5%) was rounded down to zero for the graphic" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snakehips 0 Posted December 15, 2009 Share Posted December 15, 2009 What simulator did they run that through? Football manager? they build a model based on previous results and then run it through a Monte Carlo simulator about 250,000 times That's a 25% increase on the OP. It's like the number of Celtic fans in Seville - up and up and up It's all horseshit anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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