South Ossetia

[Rob W 0]

Russia is on the move. They came to me and told me that MVB is now a key advisor and he says Go! Go! Go!

 

 

 

Nah - more like the Chinese - Indian War back in '63

 

roll over tehm, destroy their military and then pull back on YOURterms - no-one comes near you for years

 

But you have to ask - if Georgia had had A bombs would the Bear have stirred????

[AbsolutKazakh 0]

But on a more serious note, this has been going on for a long time...Russia has just decided to raise the stakes. It may have something to do with the fact Georgia has recently made moves to join NATO thus taking them out of Russia's sphere of influence. They've done a good job at keeping Azerbaijan in their realm. I would not be surprised if Russia makes some violent moves against Armenia in the near future...no wait, nevermind...they have Turkey doing that.

 

Turkey has a pact with Israel and 2 U.S. airforce bases. Doubt they're doing anything for Russia.

 

 

russian - Turkish emnity goes back a long way before NATO

 

the Azeris like to snuggle uo to the Yanks without straying too far out of Russia;s circle

Georgia has a little oil & gas but S Ossetia has bugger all of anything as far as I know

 

Neither have much of anything.

 

 

And if Russia were to bulldoze that pipeline, they'd be stabbing us in the back for no apparent reason. I don't think that makes sense, but Russian politics don't make sense anymore. We send the majority of our oil to China, but Chevron and BP have been in our Tengiz region and shipping that oil West.

[Fop 1]

Georgia falls victim to pipeline politics

 

Analysis

John Roberts

Energy security specialist, Platts

 

The Georgian conflict poses major challenges for governments and companies seeking to find ways of transporting Caspian oil and gas through the South Caucasus to European and Mediterranean markets.

 

Three pipelines that run through Georgia are now out of action.

 

A cluster of major pipelines pass through Georgia, some of them within a few kilometres of positions occupied by Russian forces before Moscow declared its own ceasefire on 12 August.

 

At present, these do not appear to be particularly threatened by the recent conflict (although all three are temporarily closed, one for reasons unrelated to the conflict. the other two as a precautionary measure).

 

What is at stake is the raft of plans for new pipelines and the major expansion of existing systems.

 

Fourth corridor

 

The biggest doubts concern the future of gas transportation.

 

 

Because transit through such a corridor bypasses Russia, it offers advantages to both Caspian producers and European consumers

 

 

 

At present, the existing Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum pipeline (BTE) carries some six billion cubic metres of gas a year (bcm/y) to Turkey, some of which is then forwarded to Greece. As Azerbaijani gas output grows, the line should reach its full 20 bcm/y capacity by about 2014.

 

The European Union is also backing proposals for development of essentially parallel lines to carry as much as a further 30 bcm/y of gas from Turkmenistan, and perhaps Kazakhstan.

 

The EU calls the route through Azerbaijan and Georgia its "Fourth Corridor" - matching existing supply systems from Russia, Norway and North Africa - with concept projects such as the planned Nabucco pipeline from the Georgian-Turkish border to Austria seen as ways of implementing it.

 

Who gains

 

Because transit through such a corridor bypasses Russia, it offers advantages to both Caspian producers and European consumers.

 

Producers gain direct access to end-consumers at market prices, whereas at present Russia buys gas from Central Asia at one price, and then sells gas to Europe at much higher prices, the difference being far more than pure transportation costs would merit.

 

Consumers gain because bringing new competitors into the European market subjects Russia to increased competition at a time when it furnishes almost half of Europe's gas imports, which last year totalled around 280 bcm/y.

 

Growing pressure

 

The demonstration of Russian power - officially exercised to protect Russian passport holders in Georgia's breakaway territory of South Ossetia - will be noted carefully by Caspian energy producers, notably Kazakhstan, where about 30% of the population is still ethnic Russian.

 

Investors may shy away from pipeline projects in the future

 

Russian pressure on Caspian producers to use Russian routes for their exports is now likely to be intensified.

 

At the same time the efforts of western companies to raise finance for major projects in the South Caucasus will be made much harder.

 

In terms of existing supply routes, however, the impact is likely to prove far more limited.

 

There appears to be little threat to the bulk of existing oil supplies through Georgia, but the damage done to the country's reputation as a safe place for expensive and extensive international energy infrastructure is potentially very considerable indeed.

 

Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan

 

Three major lines currently transit Georgia.

 

The biggest is the 1.0 mb/d capacity Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, which carries crude oil from Azerbaijan to the Turkish Mediterranean terminal at Ceyhan, from whence it gets transported by tanker to both Europe and the United States.

 

It has been out of action since 5 August, due to a fire.

 

PKK Kurdish insurgents claimed responsibility, saying they sabotaged the line.

 

Repairs are now completed, but pumping has yet to resume.

 

The main damage to BTC is likely to be to proposals to expand the line's capacity so that it can handle as much as 1.8 mb/d of crude.

 

One question how keen Kazakhstan, the source of much of the projected 800,000 b/d of input, will be to pursue this export route.

 

Baku-Supsa

 

The next major line is Baku-Supsa, a 150,000 b/d line that has just reopened after undergoing substantial renovation.

 

It carries oil to the Black Sea, but the port of Supsa is just 25 kilometres from Poti, the port which handles most of Georgia's imports and which was bombed and shelled by Russian forces.

 

In between Poti and Supsa is Kulevi, an Azerbaijani-owned terminal where Kazakh and Azerbaijani crude oil is unloaded onto tankers after transitting the South Caucasus by rail from Baku.

 

Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan had ambitious plans to expand rail traffic, pipelines and terminals in Georgia, both at Kulevi and the southwestern port of Batumi.

 

These may now be in question.

 

Damaged reputation

 

In sum, the vast bulk of the oil and gas systems operating before the Georgian conflict should — so long as the ceasefire holds - be back in working order within weeks, if not days.

 

Rail traffic may take longer to recover, depending on damage sustained by Georgia's internal infrastructure.

 

But the real blow is to Georgia's reputation.

 

The last few days have just proved that so-called "frozen conflicts" are simply ice-covered volcanoes.

 

Protecting existing investments in such a climate is one thing; raising further investment to build new lines or expand existing systems is quite another.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7557049.stm

[Kevin Carr's Gloves 3859]

The situation in Georgia has been caused by a complete lack of sense on all sides. Firstly the west must take a huge part of the blame for continuing with NATO. This gang was created as a direct opposition to the warsaw pact countries and a way of defending against a Soviet attack. When the Soviet union collapsed it should have been disbanded. However the USA saw it as a way of legitimising it's world police dominion. Beyond this the USA is trying to enlarge this gang it is in control of and inviting all of Russia's nearest neighbours to join. All of this to promote the idea of the star wars defence system which it says is a defence against terrorist states but which the whole world knows is targeted against Russia. Also the lack of correct diplomatic policy towards Russia has not helped. After the collapse of Communism the west saw Russia as a poor relation in the new democratised landscape. It gave it loans and used that as leverage in all diplomatic negotioations. It never tried to make Russia feel like it had friends in the west. Now Russia is very rich and the loans mean nothing and the west no longer has that as leverage and has not got the influence of a friend. Added to this the two faced policy the west has displayed around cessation states and you have a right mess. Lastly Russia. A country controlled by the old KGB striving to be a world super power again with new found muscles it aches to stretch. There are no rights in any of this just wrongs as far as the eye can see.

 

 

This could have been essay length but then no one would read it.

[Fop 1]

I don't know that disbanding NATO would have been the best thing (apart from for Russia and China as it would make it much easier for either to force the EU and USA apart weakening both).

 

It's a shame they never manage to progress further with bring Russia into it though (although direct membership was never realistic in a short time frame, there were noises about a kind of affiliation at one point), as engagement in a club might have stopped Russian withdrawal back into itself with Putin.

 

 

Although the irony is that the USA is viewed as the worlds current imperialist devil and Europe (and the UK) are still viewed as trying to regain some sort of imperialist agenda ( ) and yet Russia and China are by far the most imperialist countries in the world today (as this shows).

Edited August 13, 2008 by Fop

[AbsolutKazakh 0]

I don't know that disbanding NATO would have been the best thing (apart from for Russia and China as it would make it much easier for either to force the EU and USA apart weakening both).

 

It's a shame they never manage to progress further with bring Russia into it though (although direct membership was never realistic in a short time frame, there were noises about a kind of affiliation at one point), as engagement in a club might have stopped Russian withdrawal back into itself with Putin.

 

 

Although the irony is that the USA is viewed as the worlds current imperialist devil and Europe (and the UK) are still viewed as trying to regain some sort of imperialist agenda ( ) and yet Russia and China are by far the most imperialist countries in the world today (as this shows).

 

 

America is. I saw a McDonalds in Azerbaijan.

[AbsolutKazakh 0]

The situation in Georgia has been caused by a complete lack of sense on all sides. Firstly the west must take a huge part of the blame for continuing with NATO. This gang was created as a direct opposition to the warsaw pact countries and a way of defending against a Soviet attack. When the Soviet union collapsed it should have been disbanded. However the USA saw it as a way of legitimising it's world police dominion. Beyond this the USA is trying to enlarge this gang it is in control of and inviting all of Russia's nearest neighbours to join. All of this to promote the idea of the star wars defence system which it says is a defence against terrorist states but which the whole world knows is targeted against Russia. Also the lack of correct diplomatic policy towards Russia has not helped. After the collapse of Communism the west saw Russia as a poor relation in the new democratised landscape. It gave it loans and used that as leverage in all diplomatic negotioations. It never tried to make Russia feel like it had friends in the west. Now Russia is very rich and the loans mean nothing and the west no longer has that as leverage and has not got the influence of a friend. Added to this the two faced policy the west has displayed around cessation states and you have a right mess. Lastly Russia. A country controlled by the old KGB striving to be a world super power again with new found muscles it aches to stretch. There are no rights in any of this just wrongs as far as the eye can see.

 

This could have been essay length but then no one would read it.

 

I'm a bit too tired to read it as is now. When I get home from work I will reply.

[Fop 1]

I don't know that disbanding NATO would have been the best thing (apart from for Russia and China as it would make it much easier for either to force the EU and USA apart weakening both).

 

It's a shame they never manage to progress further with bring Russia into it though (although direct membership was never realistic in a short time frame, there were noises about a kind of affiliation at one point), as engagement in a club might have stopped Russian withdrawal back into itself with Putin.

 

 

Although the irony is that the USA is viewed as the worlds current imperialist devil and Europe (and the UK) are still viewed as trying to regain some sort of imperialist agenda ( ) and yet Russia and China are by far the most imperialist countries in the world today (as this shows).

 

 

America is. I saw a McDonalds in Azerbaijan.

 

Controlling the world one Zebu burger at a time.

[Guest alex]

The situation in Georgia has been caused by a complete lack of sense on all sides. Firstly the west must take a huge part of the blame for continuing with NATO. This gang was created as a direct opposition to the warsaw pact countries and a way of defending against a Soviet attack. When the Soviet union collapsed it should have been disbanded. However the USA saw it as a way of legitimising it's world police dominion. Beyond this the USA is trying to enlarge this gang it is in control of and inviting all of Russia's nearest neighbours to join. All of this to promote the idea of the star wars defence system which it says is a defence against terrorist states but which the whole world knows is targeted against Russia. Also the lack of correct diplomatic policy towards Russia has not helped. After the collapse of Communism the west saw Russia as a poor relation in the new democratised landscape. It gave it loans and used that as leverage in all diplomatic negotioations. It never tried to make Russia feel like it had friends in the west. Now Russia is very rich and the loans mean nothing and the west no longer has that as leverage and has not got the influence of a friend. Added to this the two faced policy the west has displayed around cessation states and you have a right mess. Lastly Russia. A country controlled by the old KGB striving to be a world super power again with new found muscles it aches to stretch. There are no rights in any of this just wrongs as far as the eye can see.

 

 

This could have been essay length but then no one would read it.

Agree in the main although Fop makes a good point re: NATO.

Also, as an aside is this Russian action any worse than what 'the West' is doing in Iraq?

[AbsolutKazakh 0]

I don't know that disbanding NATO would have been the best thing (apart from for Russia and China as it would make it much easier for either to force the EU and USA apart weakening both).

 

It's a shame they never manage to progress further with bring Russia into it though (although direct membership was never realistic in a short time frame, there were noises about a kind of affiliation at one point), as engagement in a club might have stopped Russian withdrawal back into itself with Putin.

 

 

Although the irony is that the USA is viewed as the worlds current imperialist devil and Europe (and the UK) are still viewed as trying to regain some sort of imperialist agenda ( ) and yet Russia and China are by far the most imperialist countries in the world today (as this shows).

 

 

America is. I saw a McDonalds in Azerbaijan.

 

Controlling the world one Zebu burger at a time.

 

They're just planting their Grade-E seed

[Guest alex]

I don't know that disbanding NATO would have been the best thing (apart from for Russia and China as it would make it much easier for either to force the EU and USA apart weakening both).

 

It's a shame they never manage to progress further with bring Russia into it though (although direct membership was never realistic in a short time frame, there were noises about a kind of affiliation at one point), as engagement in a club might have stopped Russian withdrawal back into itself with Putin.

 

 

Although the irony is that the USA is viewed as the worlds current imperialist devil and Europe (and the UK) are still viewed as trying to regain some sort of imperialist agenda ( ) and yet Russia and China are by far the most imperialist countries in the world today (as this shows).

 

 

America is. I saw a McDonalds in Azerbaijan.

 

Controlling the world one Zebu burger at a time.

 

They're just planting their Grade-E seed

Do I need to buy a hat? [/Cilla]

[Kevin Carr's Gloves 3859]

The situation in Georgia has been caused by a complete lack of sense on all sides. Firstly the west must take a huge part of the blame for continuing with NATO. This gang was created as a direct opposition to the warsaw pact countries and a way of defending against a Soviet attack. When the Soviet union collapsed it should have been disbanded. However the USA saw it as a way of legitimising it's world police dominion. Beyond this the USA is trying to enlarge this gang it is in control of and inviting all of Russia's nearest neighbours to join. All of this to promote the idea of the star wars defence system which it says is a defence against terrorist states but which the whole world knows is targeted against Russia. Also the lack of correct diplomatic policy towards Russia has not helped. After the collapse of Communism the west saw Russia as a poor relation in the new democratised landscape. It gave it loans and used that as leverage in all diplomatic negotioations. It never tried to make Russia feel like it had friends in the west. Now Russia is very rich and the loans mean nothing and the west no longer has that as leverage and has not got the influence of a friend. Added to this the two faced policy the west has displayed around cessation states and you have a right mess. Lastly Russia. A country controlled by the old KGB striving to be a world super power again with new found muscles it aches to stretch. There are no rights in any of this just wrongs as far as the eye can see.

 

 

This could have been essay length but then no one would read it.

Agree in the main although Fop makes a good point re: NATO.

Also, as an aside is this Russian action any worse than what 'the West' is doing in Iraq?

 

No actually I would say it is not as bad. I was always anti invasion as I believed another two years of tighter controls of Iraq would have seen it come down from the inside. If this had happened then the UN would have gone in with much more support than the situation now has.

[AbsolutKazakh 0]

[

Do I need to buy a hat? [/Cilla]

 

[Guest alex]

Rhetorical question really KCG. It's just ironic to see certain countries getting on their high horse about this. Because lets be honest, people are just shitting it about the rise and rise of Russia. Which is, funnily enough, no more democratic than it ever was.

Edited August 13, 2008 by alex

[AbsolutKazakh 0]

Rhetorical question really KCG. It's just ironic to see certain countries getting on their high horse about this. Because lets be honest, people are just shitting it about the rise and rise of Russia. Which is, funnily enough, no more democratic than it ever was.

 

The rise of Russia is really nothing spectacular. Their economy has a false bottom and the government is fake. People see that the GDP grew, yet they fail work on the inflation and are forced freeze food prices. Not diversifying their economy is going to do them in at some point in the near future.

[Guest alex]

Rhetorical question really KCG. It's just ironic to see certain countries getting on their high horse about this. Because lets be honest, people are just shitting it about the rise and rise of Russia. Which is, funnily enough, no more democratic than it ever was.

 

The rise of Russia is really nothing spectacular. Their economy has a false bottom and the government is fake. People see that the GDP grew, yet they fail work on the inflation and are forced freeze food prices. Not diversifying their economy is going to do them in at some point in the near future.

If you say so. I think Europe and its natural gas demands over the next few decades may prove that wrong.

[Park Life 71]

Rhetorical question really KCG. It's just ironic to see certain countries getting on their high horse about this. Because lets be honest, people are just shitting it about the rise and rise of Russia. Which is, funnily enough, no more democratic than it ever was.

 

The rise of Russia is really nothing spectacular. Their economy has a false bottom and the government is fake. People see that the GDP grew, yet they fail work on the inflation and are forced freeze food prices. Not diversifying their economy is going to do them in at some point in the near future.

 

Russia now had massive energy resources that are being tapped and paid for by Europe. Russia will move into the EU and the final hand will have been dealt on U.S. hegenomy.

[AbsolutKazakh 0]

Rhetorical question really KCG. It's just ironic to see certain countries getting on their high horse about this. Because lets be honest, people are just shitting it about the rise and rise of Russia. Which is, funnily enough, no more democratic than it ever was.

 

The rise of Russia is really nothing spectacular. Their economy has a false bottom and the government is fake. People see that the GDP grew, yet they fail work on the inflation and are forced freeze food prices. Not diversifying their economy is going to do them in at some point in the near future.

If you say so. I think Europe and its natural gas demands over the next few decades may prove that wrong.

 

Perhaps I need to define what it means to have a false bottom

[AbsolutKazakh 0]

Rhetorical question really KCG. It's just ironic to see certain countries getting on their high horse about this. Because lets be honest, people are just shitting it about the rise and rise of Russia. Which is, funnily enough, no more democratic than it ever was.

 

The rise of Russia is really nothing spectacular. Their economy has a false bottom and the government is fake. People see that the GDP grew, yet they fail work on the inflation and are forced freeze food prices. Not diversifying their economy is going to do them in at some point in the near future.

 

Russia now had massive energy resources that are being tapped and paid for by Europe. Russia will move into the EU and the final hand will have been dealt on U.S. hegenomy.

 

They're a nuclear petrostate that has failed to modernize. How is that a good thing?

[Park Life 71]

Rhetorical question really KCG. It's just ironic to see certain countries getting on their high horse about this. Because lets be honest, people are just shitting it about the rise and rise of Russia. Which is, funnily enough, no more democratic than it ever was.

 

The rise of Russia is really nothing spectacular. Their economy has a false bottom and the government is fake. People see that the GDP grew, yet they fail work on the inflation and are forced freeze food prices. Not diversifying their economy is going to do them in at some point in the near future.

 

Russia now had massive energy resources that are being tapped and paid for by Europe. Russia will move into the EU and the final hand will have been dealt on U.S. hegenomy.

 

They're a nuclear petrostate that has failed to modernize. How is that a good thing?

 

Why is that do you think?

[Park Life 71]

Rhetorical question really KCG. It's just ironic to see certain countries getting on their high horse about this. Because lets be honest, people are just shitting it about the rise and rise of Russia. Which is, funnily enough, no more democratic than it ever was.

 

The rise of Russia is really nothing spectacular. Their economy has a false bottom and the government is fake. People see that the GDP grew, yet they fail work on the inflation and are forced freeze food prices. Not diversifying their economy is going to do them in at some point in the near future.

So long as they have oil they will stay afloat.

 

Not sure who these days has a diversifyied economy. Military arms complex yes...making bits of plastic yes...

[Guest alex]

Rhetorical question really KCG. It's just ironic to see certain countries getting on their high horse about this. Because lets be honest, people are just shitting it about the rise and rise of Russia. Which is, funnily enough, no more democratic than it ever was.

 

The rise of Russia is really nothing spectacular. Their economy has a false bottom and the government is fake. People see that the GDP grew, yet they fail work on the inflation and are forced freeze food prices. Not diversifying their economy is going to do them in at some point in the near future.

If you say so. I think Europe and its natural gas demands over the next few decades may prove that wrong.

 

Perhaps I need to define what it means to have a false bottom

No, I got that thanks. I think you need to define nothing spectacular though if you think potentially having Europe by the short and curlies won't make a massive impact on the world economy, etc.

[AbsolutKazakh 0]

Rhetorical question really KCG. It's just ironic to see certain countries getting on their high horse about this. Because lets be honest, people are just shitting it about the rise and rise of Russia. Which is, funnily enough, no more democratic than it ever was.

 

The rise of Russia is really nothing spectacular. Their economy has a false bottom and the government is fake. People see that the GDP grew, yet they fail work on the inflation and are forced freeze food prices. Not diversifying their economy is going to do them in at some point in the near future.

 

Russia now had massive energy resources that are being tapped and paid for by Europe. Russia will move into the EU and the final hand will have been dealt on U.S. hegenomy.

 

They're a nuclear petrostate that has failed to modernize. How is that a good thing?

 

Why is that do you think?

 

Because they bank on their natural resources as exports. 63% of their exports is oil and gas vs .3% being high-technology. As they become more dependent on natural resources, the Kremlin has been focusing more on power, antagonizing the west, and bullying their neighbors. If their ambitions weren't so global, it wouldn't be a bad thing, but since they are, it's terrible for geopolitics.

[Park Life 71]

Rhetorical question really KCG. It's just ironic to see certain countries getting on their high horse about this. Because lets be honest, people are just shitting it about the rise and rise of Russia. Which is, funnily enough, no more democratic than it ever was.

 

The rise of Russia is really nothing spectacular. Their economy has a false bottom and the government is fake. People see that the GDP grew, yet they fail work on the inflation and are forced freeze food prices. Not diversifying their economy is going to do them in at some point in the near future.

 

Russia now had massive energy resources that are being tapped and paid for by Europe. Russia will move into the EU and the final hand will have been dealt on U.S. hegenomy.

 

They're a nuclear petrostate that has failed to modernize. How is that a good thing?

 

Why is that do you think?

 

Because they bank on their natural resources as exports. 63% of their exports is oil and gas vs .3% being high-technology. As they become more dependent on natural resources, the Kremlin has been focusing more on power, antagonizing the west, and bullying their neighbors. If their ambitions weren't so global, it wouldn't be a bad thing, but since they are, it's terrible for geopolitics.

 

Wrong.

 

Cause they are frozen out of the Western banking system and financial tools needed for development. This is being done purposefully to strip it of its assets on the cheap and is why they kicked BP out.

[AbsolutKazakh 0]

Rhetorical question really KCG. It's just ironic to see certain countries getting on their high horse about this. Because lets be honest, people are just shitting it about the rise and rise of Russia. Which is, funnily enough, no more democratic than it ever was.

 

The rise of Russia is really nothing spectacular. Their economy has a false bottom and the government is fake. People see that the GDP grew, yet they fail work on the inflation and are forced freeze food prices. Not diversifying their economy is going to do them in at some point in the near future.

If you say so. I think Europe and its natural gas demands over the next few decades may prove that wrong.

 

Perhaps I need to define what it means to have a false bottom

No, I got that thanks. I think you need to define nothing spectacular though if you think potentially having Europe by the short and curlies won't make a massive impact on the world economy, etc.

 

Everyone thinks Putin created an economic miracle, but I don't buy it. Most of the gains were accomplished by protectionism. Corporate debt is on the rise, and most of the hyperrich are taking their money abroad.