adios 717 Posted October 1, 2017 Share Posted October 1, 2017 Having said all that, anyone not betting on the draw with Liverpool is burning money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fish 10857 Posted October 1, 2017 Share Posted October 1, 2017 Just now, TheGingerQuiff said: Suit yourselves I still don't get how cashing out is more fun than seeing your bet through though. The relief/anxiety of "have I done the right thing?" can't be as entertaining as still being in with a shot of your full payout Put it this way, 5 Live says that Palace v Swansea is an absolute borefest, with neither side registering a shot, let alone one on target, that's the only match that's letting down my 12 team acca and I can cash out now for £45, or hope that somehow, Swansea get the winner I was expecting them to... Rational thinking says "winning" £45 is much, much better than hanging on, against the evidence to hand. Or Man Utd scored early doors, but uncharacteristically West Brom have been absolutely hammering them, with only De Gea and the woodwork keeping them ahead. Surely it makes sense to cash out for a portion of the bigger prize when all ir takes is 1 mistake and the entire pot is lost? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGingerQuiff 2412 Posted October 1, 2017 Share Posted October 1, 2017 I'm not for turning on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adios 717 Posted October 1, 2017 Share Posted October 1, 2017 As a matter of interest, are you paying a penalty for cashing out early? ie. are the odds when cashing out shorter than they should be? And, on average, what are the odds on your whole accumulator vs what you're getting when you cash out? I could defo make an argument that Fish's strategy is more profitable than letting it ride but I fear the Quiff might actually have an aneurysm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGingerQuiff 2412 Posted October 1, 2017 Share Posted October 1, 2017 (edited) Go for it, you're right I'll likely dismiss you as talking shite though but I'm intrigued. Yes you pay a penalty. Once you place a bet your cashout offer is immediately less than your stake unless the odds shorten. Edited October 1, 2017 by TheGingerQuiff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adios 717 Posted October 1, 2017 Share Posted October 1, 2017 Would you agree that profitable sports betting is all about making better decisions than the market to the point where you can more than beat the bookies' vig? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGingerQuiff 2412 Posted October 1, 2017 Share Posted October 1, 2017 Hey, make your argument without using me as a prop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meenzer 15525 Posted October 1, 2017 Share Posted October 1, 2017 Predicting that the odds will shorten is often the point in itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adios 717 Posted October 1, 2017 Share Posted October 1, 2017 Sorry. "Would you agree that profitable sports betting is all about making better decisions than the market to the point where you can more than beat the bookies' vig?" If the above argument is correct, every time @The Fish outsmarts the market to the point where he beats the vig (even if it's new vig) he increases his expected value. In reality, he's probably just enhancing his losses a little bit with the extra juice, but that theory is sound for a winning gambler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StoneColdStephenIreland 74 Posted October 1, 2017 Share Posted October 1, 2017 Im with Quiff. No idea why people cash out early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tdansmith 3259 Posted October 1, 2017 Share Posted October 1, 2017 1 minute ago, StoneColdStephenIreland said: Im with Quiff. No idea why people cash out early. So if you had Newcastle v Liverpool as a draw to win say £200 and the cash out was £80 with ten minutes left you would not cash out ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGingerQuiff 2412 Posted October 1, 2017 Share Posted October 1, 2017 You'd let the bookie off with £120 because you can't hold your nerve for 10 minutes. Generous lad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tdansmith 3259 Posted October 1, 2017 Share Posted October 1, 2017 Just now, TheGingerQuiff said: You'd let the bookie off with £120 because you can't hold your nerve for 10 minutes. Generous lad! Aye, my arse would have went. I doubt I'll be playing poker with you any time soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGingerQuiff 2412 Posted October 1, 2017 Share Posted October 1, 2017 (edited) I've got a bet on with two mackems at my former company, that we'll finish higher in our league than they do theirs. One doesn't even bet but felt my offer was too good to turn down, both ridiculed me as deluded. Confident. Edited October 1, 2017 by TheGingerQuiff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adios 717 Posted October 1, 2017 Share Posted October 1, 2017 9 minutes ago, TheGingerQuiff said: You'd let the bookie off with £120 because you can't hold your nerve for 10 minutes. Generous lad! This isn't how Maths works, though I daresay the Maths is on your side in that example. (I think Liverpool need to score more than 66% of the time for that cashout to make sense). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StoneColdStephenIreland 74 Posted October 1, 2017 Share Posted October 1, 2017 23 minutes ago, Tdansmith said: So if you had Newcastle v Liverpool as a draw to win say £200 and the cash out was £80 with ten minutes left you would not cash out ? Absolutely. Would be daft not to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGingerQuiff 2412 Posted October 1, 2017 Share Posted October 1, 2017 Or just one of the teams to score >60%? Given the cashout offer is 40%? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tdansmith 3259 Posted October 1, 2017 Share Posted October 1, 2017 35 minutes ago, TheGingerQuiff said: I've got a bet on with two mackems at my former company, that we'll finish higher in our league than they do theirs. One doesn't even bet but felt my offer was too good to turn down, both ridiculed me as deluded. Confident. I'd cash out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adios 717 Posted October 1, 2017 Share Posted October 1, 2017 (edited) 1 hour ago, TheGingerQuiff said: Or just one of the teams to score >60%? Given the cashout offer is 40%? The breakeven point is 100% of £80 or 40% of £200. In reality, it's a little more as the other team could score another equaliser. No real idea how to quantify that which is why I don't bet on sports. ETA: So, you are correct, 60% if you don't consider the chance of another equaliser. Edited October 1, 2017 by adios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adios 717 Posted October 1, 2017 Share Posted October 1, 2017 54 minutes ago, Tdansmith said: I'd cash out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewerk 30602 Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 Course not, mate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fish 10857 Posted October 8, 2017 Share Posted October 8, 2017 When the fun stops, stop. I put £2.50 on the Euromillions £168m jackpot on Friday, but some Spaniard pocketed that. Worth it for the daydream of what we'd do with the money for a bit though. I'd pay people to follow you lot around with whatever annoys you most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tdansmith 3259 Posted October 8, 2017 Share Posted October 8, 2017 4 hours ago, The Fish said: When the fun stops, stop. I put £2.50 on the Euromillions £168m jackpot on Friday, but some Spaniard pocketed that. Worth it for the daydream of what we'd do with the money for a bit though. I'd pay people to follow you lot around with whatever annoys you most. How will you manage to be in more than two places at the same time 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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