OTF

It shouldn't be understated the value added and the work done by the Hall's and Shepherd's in developing our youth sides and training facilities. I shudder to think of the the great many injuries that we could have incurred if it weren't for our fantastic training ground and facilities. In addition when I look through our first team squad and see all the exceptional local talent I'm loathe to think of what it could have been like if we didn't have such a conveyor belt of talent coming through from our youth ranks thanks to the excellent vision and foresight of the Hall's and Shepherd's.

Phil is a funny name for joey's mum.

He was the one busting his arse trying to get back to cover for Simpson's crap backheader to Coloccini on the weekend. Pretty good if you ask me considering we were 6-0 up at the time and there was three defenders in a deeper position than him. He's not a top player because he lacks explosiveness and pace. In some ways I liken him to Milner in that if he puts in the effort he's talented enough to be a very effective player. Ranger has looked decent in the minimal run outs that he has got, but so far has lacked the finishing that will be required for a weak side in the Premiership (have to take advantage of as many of our chances as possible). Dr Gloom I hope your name is indicative of your outlook, because your suggestion that we're going to need more than three new first teamers to survive means that we'll be going down for sure next season. A good way to look at the value of our squad this season is to compare it to the likes of the mid-lower tabled side sin the league. Surprisingly there's quite a few that I think we could compete with currently, though I'm not up to date with many of the lesser known players in these sides.

Lovenkrands was actually ok for us in the Prem though he did look a bit of a soft touch. We know now that he was played out of position on the left most of the time. He's a forward pure and simple, anywhere else on the pitch and he doesn't have the physicality nor experience to compete. He'll do an ok job in the Premier League as a forward balanced off the physicality of Shola or Carroll. 1st team: Harper, S. Taylor, Coloccini, Enrique, Jonas. Maybe/Squad: Routledge, Guthrie, Lovenkrands, Nolan, Barton, Simpson, Carroll, Ameobi, Kadar, Williamson, R. Taylor. The key for me next season will be to have the depth in all positions to have a decently feasible replacement in the case of injury. Other than that we need to have a settled team, particularly in defense, as well as a team that's capable of creating goals (ie. not a wonder pairing of Smith and Butt in the middle - though thankfully Butt will be no more next season). With Enrique, Jonas, Routledge and Lovenkrands we have a decent amount of pace in our side but I'd still like to see some additional quick players added to the mix. Can't see Pancrate being re-signed, nor Fitz Hall. Butt will retire. Smith and Barton will remain as noone will be interested in buying them. Xisco may attract a buyer from Spain, though it will be at a large loss on that 'wise' investment, plus he'll have to take a hit on wages.

We're not going to be able to sell him anyway so I say all we can do is hope that by some small miracle he doesn't have any further injury problems and can get a little bit of time on the pitch between now and the end of the season as well as a full off-season to lead him into next season. It's been a long time since he has played decent football, so it's a big ask to expect anything from him but hopefully he still has some personal pride left as he has a hell of a lot to prove.

Wonder what the Liverpool owners will do if they fail to qualify for the Champions league... Hope I get to find out

I agree with the first part, but I honestly can't see any sort of large scale purchase happening before next season. No doubt there will be some movement on the market, as there should theoretically be a larger pool of players to pick from in the off-season. In particular I think Ashley will be directing Hughton to have a good look over the players in the Portsmouth, Burnley and Hull sides as they'll look to snap some of their more talented players up on the cheap as those clubs are forced to adjust their wage bill appropriately (though relative to us they've probably already got modest wage bills). The idea of buying promising young players and bringing them through the system is theoretically a good one where-by somehow hopefully the players will form an attachment to the club so they won't be forced to shell out the larger wages to attract out of towners. What it doesn't allow for is the current quality of the first team, which will need some reshaping. Nicky Butt's wages should cover a pretty decent player I would imagine for starters, depending how much the actual transfer costs (as I speak no doubt Ashley will have Hughton looking over players on the final years of their contracts). The other problem with bringing through youth players is that the club really does have a pretty horrible record of doing so. The best player to come out of the Newcastle area of late is Michael Carrick and he was nicked from under our noses by a London side. Seldom do we see the best performers in our youth/reserve sides given a reasonable chance to prove themselves in the top side - look at Kazenga Lualua, he's been showing promise for some time and it looked like he might crack it into the first team on occassion, now he's slipped back off the radar and has been loaned out.

So far as I'm aware they had an extremely settled side through the most part of the season. Their defense in partcular has not been hit by injuries (incuding their right back Stephen Carr ). As such they've been a team where the 'team' is greater than the sum of the parts. They're starting to slip a little now, probably a little added pressure on them as well as some fatigue - still being in the cup up until recently can't have helped. I expect they'll continue a gradual slide down the table between now and the close of the season as they're in that mid-table comfort zone. Ashley would be ecstatic with results that that for Newcastle next season. Getting the points on the table in the early part of the season will mean that he'll get away with minimal investment in the side in the January window.

The lesson that dictates that you can't simply throw massive wages around in order to lure players who otherwise probably wouldn't be interested in playing for the club. There's a difference between accepting it, and begrudgingly admitting it. I'm not suggesting that it's what I'd want for the immediate future of the club, but in reality it is all that we can expect from Ashley. In the end I'd be happy if there was a better progression of young players from the area coming through to the top levels and being able to compete with the top standard of teams in the country. This would limit the amount of money required to bring in, and then pay for the high waged foreign players that numbers wise dominate the Premier League. It shouldn't be like running a store, but when you have a businessman who owns the club who has no emotional attachment to the club the fact is that it will be run as though it is a business. In some ways this should be a good thing, as it should help to ensure responsible spending. On the flip-side it will likely limit the ambition of the club. At any length I think the priority now is to have an annual profit and to maintain our premierleague status whilst building some stability in the coaching and playing staff. If this is done as part of a fiscally responsible series of campaigns then in a few years time we should start to see dividends and naturally the ambitions will rise. Reaslistically it's delusional to instantly expect a certain degree of ambition at the club based on local fanbase alone when we're competing with abnormalities like Manchester City and Chelsea and image powerhouses like Manchester United and Liverpool who have a much wider reaching set of fans worldwide. At any length you have to consider the current financial situation when reckoning the ability of the owner to take calculated risks in the name of ambition.

It will be very interesting to see the accounts and to then weigh them up against what has been said publically. Of course depending on where and when the debt that has been 'paid' off has been allocated the figures could be grossly misleading and created in such a way to create a variety of pictures. 2010-2011 will undoubtedly be a better season financially for the club than was 2008-2009. The large decreases in players wages will see to that. No new players will be brought in on massive wages as the lesson has surely been learnt. In addition I'm sure that Ashley will continue to operate the backroom and rest of the club without any additional employees. For this reason I can see Ashley as being happy to merely keep our premierleague status and nothing more. Financially for Ashley the best model is one where we minimise our spend whilst staying in the top league. There's not a great deal of difference in prize money and resulting additional revenue that is dependant upon placings in the league (outside the European qualifying positions that is) so for him not being relegated is all he'll be aiming for. If he can continue to keep the club in the top league on a relatively shoestring budget (compared to our previously astronomical wage bills) at the same time maintaining attendances, merchandise sales and sponsorships then he's going to obtain the best return. To maintain the attendances occassionally he's going to have to spend some cash to bring a few new faces in so that it looks like he has ambition, but no doubt this cash will come from the sale of existing players. This is why he only wants to buy young players, because he wants as many potentially saleable players on the books. He's definitely stuck in a catch-22 regarding the 100m that he paid towards the debt of the club (that is now owed by the club to Ashley - but only if they're sold). Worryingly according to http://nufc-finances.org.uk/ he can claim interest on the entire amount, which he obviously has no reason to do whilst he still owns the club. That debt will continue to loom large over any potential sale meaning that unless Ashley is prepared to write off at least some of it he won't be able to sell the club.

There's no dilemma. His performances in central midfield prove that he should be there week in week out. He's not only decent at creating goals but he can also score the odd few. When we went down I was expecting him to be a key player in our side. In some ways he has been, but not to the extent that I thought. I certainly didn't envision him being played so many times on the right where he clearly is completely out of place (and pace). I'd hope that Hughton sees some sense and continues to play him in his preferred position. Nolan is a luxury player when you also deploy two forwards. I actually think that Guthrie could play a role alongside a more creative midfield partner, with Guthrie shouldering a larger part of the defensive duties. I think with someone who can pass alongside him he'll only continue to develop into an even better player.

Can he actually call in the debts whilst he owns the club? I assume any such manouvre would involve the club going into receivership which is not a good move for Ashley to make whatever way you look at it. Otherwise he would have to sell the club to be able to call in any debt. With any potential buyers (who aren't Mike Ashley) sure to perform due dilligence there would be no way that the club could be sold if the levels of debt that Happy Feet has calculated actually exist. If this is the case it leaves Ashley in a position where the only thing that he can do is attempt to redress the shortfall in revenue against outgoings in order to make the club profitable. Once it's profitable it would be in a better position to sell, but only once the profit has been ploughed back into the club/the debters in order to improve the total financial position. If we're losing 26million pounds this year, then we were in the red in previous years. I'm not suggesting we're in a better position with Ashley but more-so that we're in an equally shit position. Shepherd was hush hush regarding financial matters so it's tough to properly gauge the financial position of the club when it was sold. All we have to go by is what has come out of Ashley's PR machine. When it comes down to it any statements that they have made have always been with a purpose - either to herald Ashley pouring money into the club to cover debt/keep things running or to give an excuse as to why players had to be sold, or why players couldn't be bought. When they know that there's no real way for any of their 'facts' to be checked they can and will say whatever the fuck they want to suit whatever their current agenda happens to be.

...and by the way this statement doesn't mean much at all: So what if it's 'costing' Mike that much to keep running the club. It costs money ongoing to run any business. That half a million a week may be the outgoings without factoring in any actual income. That kind of deliberate misleading statement (without technically lying) is part and parcel of this administration. If Neil runs a lawn mowing business and pays Ted and Harry £800 each per week to mow the lawns and spends £200 on equipment and another £200 on advertising then it's costing Neil £2000 pounds a week to keep his mowing business running each week without making further cutbacks. Now the business may well be bringing in $3500 in revenue across that week so Neil's net position is in the positive, but nonetheless the statement is true. I'm not suggesting that Newcastle's net position each week is in the positive, just that it's ridiculous to take a statement like that and use it to conclude that the club is losing £26million pounds this year.

Not being argumentative, but I really don't understand your mathematics. How does the amount made from the transfer window contribute to the defecit? I appreciate that the players could be seen as assets, but realistically they would have been invaluable assets to us in this season as the best that we could have achieved is first position and currently without their services (and wages) we sit in first position. If NUFC currently losing £26m per annum it does not paint a pretty picture of the finances of the club before Ashley took over. To put that into perspective consider that the television money from the Premier League is £45million pounds and the parachute payment we would have received this season is approx £12million pounds plus we will receive well in excess of £1million pounds television money this season so the gross difference on these figures alone is £32million pounds. Hearing just that you might think that we would then make a profit of £6 million (£32m - £26m), but that is far from the case. Consider all the players that we've sold since last season. Sebastian Bassong £10,000 /week (£520,000 /year) Charles N'Zogbia £20,000 /week (£1,040,000 /year) James Milner £20,000 /week (£1,040,000 /year) Shay Given £40,000 /week (£2,080,000 /year) Obafemi Martins £80,000 /week (£4,160,000 /year) Mark Viduka £80,000 /week (£4,160,000 /year) Damien Duff £80,000 /week (£4,160,000 /year) Michael Owen £100,000 /week (£5,200,000 /year) Total savings across 1 season from the removal of these players from the payroll is £22,360,000. Against the £6m in the green that were just a second ago we're suddenly £16.36m in the red. This of course doesn't factor in many considerations, but goes to show in simple terms just how much expenditure has been shaved off for our plight in the Championship. At any length the sale of players since last season has exceeded the figure of £26m so whilst we obviously won't receive that all upfront when theoretically balancing the book that would cover for the debt. Sure, we'll no longer have the services of those players, but realistically an exodus of players was a given from the moment we were relegated (and even before in some cases). Can someone please advise what the difference in pricing has been between Premier League and Championship match tickets, as that's something that I have no idea about. The attendances have been down on last season, but not by a great deal so it would be good to see what kind of difference we're talking in £s. Llambias with his proclamations about expenditure is no doubt seizing on the opportunity on the back of Portsmouth's financial demise to attempt to swing some favour the way of Ashley. As for their accuracy well that's highly debatable given that these people have admitted that they have lied to the media and the fans.

Fake supporter anyway if he had to google that pre-season loss at this stage of the season.

The real prize no doubt is the return to the Premier League Television rights 'cash-cow'. I've no idea how much the actual prize for winning the league is, but I'd be interested to find out. I'd also be keen to hear what sort of revenue Newcastle generated from television rights across this season (given the football league's vastly increased television deal came into play this year). Lower positioned championship clubs should now be hoping that Newcastle, West Brom (and even Middlesbrough) are promoted this season as that will mean that the second year of parachute payments due to all three clubs would be divvied up amongst the remaining championship sized. If all three went back up it would mean an extra 36 odd million pounds to be spread across the 21 other sides. That payment would probably be bigger than the actual prize for winning the league (discounting the booty that lies waiting).

On the pitch? Bollocks. Off the pitch its bollocks too. No matter how many times HF has pointed it out some people still refuse to acknowledge the fact that we're far deeper in debt now than we ever were under the past regime. How that makes us stronger is beyond me. Using what numbers precisely? There's none that are available publically. If you're right then Ashely will never be able to sell the club. The TV money will have been a BIG hit no doubt but let's say that was around £45million, then that amount would easily be covered by the sale of players and the large reduction in wages (close to 30 million from sales alone, Owen alone was on £5million a season, Viduka and Duff £3million each etc). Money from ticket sales and merchandise will admittedly be down significantly, but the running costs of the club have also being reduced by cutbacks in backroom staff etc. This is all without even mentioning the 11 or 12 million pounds afforded to the club by the premierleague in the form of a parachute payment, or the 1-2 million accrued from TV rights in the Championship (no doubt we'd have received the greatest amount of revenue in the Championship). So tell me how we can be in far greater debt now? I'm assuming here that you're still counting any pre-existing debt that the club had as current existing debt (that is now owed to Ashely himself)? On the balance then that hasn't gone up as no interest will have been accrued on these pre-existing debts.

More or less right.

1 or 2 scored none conceded. Hopefully we get out of the gates quickly. Lovenkrands to get on the score sheet again.

Yep. 8 million for him with such little experience is good business as he did have some big weaknesses. This season he hasn't really been needed at all and next season would have been the final year of his three year contract. At the end of that he could have left for nothing. Business wise it was defintely the right decision, and team wise it didn't work out too poorly.

Don't worry guys, it must be a mistake as Owen isn't injury prone - just check his brochure.

N'Zogbia is definitely a good player, pacey good on the ball, can shoot and can cross if given time, but he does have one weakness that will stop him from really excelling and going to the next level (in my opinion). He puts his head down too often when he has the ball and goes on a run. Consequently he's good at beating players, but misses passing opportunities that would be plainly visible if his head wasn't down. Routledge and Jonas also suffer from the same problem. When they make a big run with the ball they're in a one man one goal situation far too often - ie. they have only one directive head towards goal. Out of the three of them Jonas is the weakest at shooting, and N'Zogbia probably the strongest (haven't seen a great deal of Routledge). N'Zogbia would benefit the most out of playing in a better team IMO though Routledge is the quickest when on the ball, and Jonas is the best at tracking back, defending and winning free-kicks. Jonas is premierleague quality without a doubt. Too wasteful for a starting gig in a top side but is a headache for all defenses and is helpful in defending particularly when the opposition is on the counter. People who think otherwise likely have an axe to grind or have a far too one dimensional way of assessing the value of a player.

No doubt, but he's now realised that noone is interested in buying football clubs at the moment. They're money sinks as a result of spendthrift 'rich' clubs throwing far too much money around at players, consequently forcing the price of players up beyond the amount that can be recompensed with regular footballing income. The recent drastic increases in Television money has only served to further blow out player wages and transfer fees. I think in the next 5 years we'll see wages and transfers settle down quite a bit, and consequently clubs like Newcastle (big gates, merchadise sale etc) will be able to run at a profit. When this happens buyers that are more than fantasy may emerge.

Yep. The short version of my post is - they've done a decent job of doing a pretty easy task and will probably not do a very good job of what will be a much much harder task.

There's no denying that a fairly decent job has been done since we've been relegated. Most of the players sold were at or past their use by date (Milner and Bassong perhaps the exceptions to the rule, though we were compensated handsomely for them both). Hughton has done a solid job of steadying the ship and keeping the players on task, focused on promotion. In the transfer window players were bought that changed the squad, or added much needed depth or covered for injuries (jury is still out on Best). With all that said we started the season with an unfathomable advantage over most other clubs in this league. Our assault on the championship was from such a position of power, so much so that were we to fail in being promoted it would have been yet another huge fuck up. We will be promoted though, and a solid foundation will have been laid. We'll be going up with a squad that would have been the envy of probably all sides to be promoted in the relatively brief history of the premier league. With some smart investment in our playing squad we'd be in a great position to ensure survival. Will we see it? It's anyone's guess. So far as I can tell Ashley will only buy players who are young (so he can onsell them like a share), he'll also only buy players who are available on the cheap. That's a relatively small pool to be choosing from, and doesn't give me much confidence that we'll fill the deficiencies that will become apparent when we're playing a much higher calibre of opponent. Apologies for any mistakes in that... Posting such a long message from a phone sucks.