Howay

It’s possible Norwich could go on a run of 9 straight wins tbf. If they do that and we lose every game it would be looking a bit dodgy for us.

Dyche will be pouring a bowl of the finest dirt and gravel to snack on while he watches the highlights “yuv seen nuffin yet” as he watches Leeds come back from 2-0 down.

Burnley now have to win all of their 3 games in hand on Leeds to over take them, never mind us. Just fuel for the fire for the Burnley lads that, just need to dig the hole a bit deeper so their fight back is even more heroic.

That home game against Wolves looks a whole lot more of a chance to pick up points on the balance of this.

I wouldn't say it's overconfidence. It's being fairly realistic tbh, I think people are just trying to prove out why they have this "over confident" view. There's just absolutely no evidence Burnley will go on some run, they could but we could also win every game the rest of the season - which actually probably has a higher chance given the way we play v they play. Out of interest I looked at the "strength" of fixtures all the teams we discuss have left, I also added in a "normalized" average which basically took out the 2 postponed fixtures for Everton and Burnley, I gave them all 6 points from those games to show where things would stand. I genuinely don't think it's as clear cut that we have some horrendous run compared to others. Obviously it's based on current league position so it has assumptions in it, but it's more objective than expecting some sudden run from Burnley. I added Brighton as people have been ignoring them, but they're 2 points above us so if we're in it they are too, especially on the back of 6 losses on the bounce and a really fucking difficult fixture list, they play more games away than home and the average position of the away sides they play is Europa League chasing sides . I think the takeaway really is we're 10 points clear of the only team in the relegation zone you could ever argue can catch us (Watford are totally fucked), and our fixture lists aren't absurdly different in strength.

But their past PPG does, for the most part, include the reverse fixtures of the games you’ve highlighted as “winnable” for them. They also have to play 2 extra fixtures than us squeezed into the same time frame, so the games in hand can be seen as a chance for them but it’s also extra stress and it’s better to have the points on board tbh. I get there’s always the chance they can go on some run, but surely we can’t operate and worry under that assumption? Even if they did we are also adding in the small chance we will simply stop picking up points. As Gemmill says too even if Burnley did go on some insane run, they’d be beating everyone around them which impacts those teams chances of going above us. Brentford hammered them 2-0 as well last game btw, absolutely played them off the park too, so I’m not sure we can look at the games you listed as really good chances to win. They’re fucking shite. I’m also a bit confused why West Ham away has snuck into the list of winnable fixtures for Burnley? We beat them but Burnley haven’t shown anything near what we have. That’s an incredibly tough fixture for them.

This is the team that feel aggrieved by the referee. Honestly man, how Richarlison didn’t get sent off that game is absolutely mind blowing, he must have committed about 10 fouls and dived at least 3 times. Add this to all the other nonsense that went Evertons way yet they’re the ones aggrieved?

And that’s enough Twitter for me.

His insanity and troubling behavior aside, I’ve seen this “corrupt referee” shit from Everton fans - even if we debate the red card, and all the other borderline stuff Everton got away with, is there any debate that the ball went off an Everton player twice yet they got both decisions in the lead up to their goal? There’s no “subjectivity” there, he got both decisions wrong and they scored a goal because of it, get either or both right and they didn’t score. But aye, the ref was totally against them or something.

Personally I’m enjoying it, after every game on that run people would go “right if we win this one we are safe” eventually ending with the targeting of a win over Southampton “10 points and we are miles clear, definitely safe”, then as the Everton game came about the “if we win this we will definitely be safe” started again . It’s worth remembering we still play Norwich as well. We lost two games while absolutely fucking knackered due to fixture crunch, some really suspect refereeing, and basically about 30 minutes of poor play. If we maintain the way we are playing we will pick up points. On the flip side people are worrying about Burnley, who are on a three game losing streak (being absolutely fucking rumbled in all three) and play Man City next, and a Watford side that need 3 wins out of 9 just to draw level with us. They both need to increase their PPG by about 0.25 over their remaining games just to draw level. Outside the games against the other relegation scrappers Watford play Liverpool(a), Manchester City(h), Palace(a), Leicester(h), Chelsea(a). Burnley have a similarly tough run outside the relegation candidates, especially considering they got humbled by Brentford. I think if you apply their current PPG to their remaining games they both hit about 30 points, so if they maintain and our PPG drops to 0 they still won’t catch us. Obviously it can happen but if the positions were reversed no one would be say thinking we could catch them.

Disagree about the red card as I’d be fuming if one of our lot threw in a tackle like that in a game we needed to win, but agree with the rest. Like you say I’m not sure how Lampard can say it was deserved we had 62% possession and double both their shots and shots on target, they were better second half but we controlled the first and if Wood had scored that early chance they’d have been in real trouble. Wood missed and they scored basically their only real chance, that’s the balance of the game. ASM was fouled imo, the player barged in through the back and never touched the ball. I’m not really sure what ASM is meant to do other than “be stronger” but again the player just ran over and shoved him To add to the foul above, the ref completely ignored that the ball went out off Coleman, not Wood, up their end and gave a goal kick, then made the same error by giving them a corner when it went off Coleman (btw this is my EXACT reason for fucking hating VAR, as decisions like a corner or throw in given the wrong way aren’t looked at but massively change games). Agree about Dubs as well, shit defending and a lot of blame in the lead up but he was caught out and let in a pretty tame shot. We’d played 3 away games in 8 days, two of them being a trip to London and then Southampton, the tiredness definitely caught up to our lot especially second half and the Everton players had a lot more riding on the game due to their position and upcoming fixtures. If I was offered 3 points from Southampton, Chelsea, and Everton away I’d have taken it tbh.

Took a quick look at the table, even if we lose every game remaining Burnley would need to win over a quarter of their remaining games (plus a draw), and Watford would need to win 1 in every 3. Keeping in mind Burnley have an 11% win rate, and Watfords is 21% they’d both need considerable upticks just to get level with our current tally. Also, Brighton have lost 6 straight, and had 3 draws and a win in their last 10 games, and have actually moved a point further clear of the bottom 3 over that period

Literally saying this while posting slow motion replays of a fucking nightmare challenge. Also worth noting this was on the counter after the Everton players were fuming from not getting a pen, also: What the fuck? If ASM had his foot planted his ankle or shin would have been in pieces. Higginbotham went on to say it didn’t have excessive force, did he think the slow motion replay was real time speed? As the bloke come at ASM like a fucking rocket . I’m genuinely confused how this is even being debated let alone a pundit saying it’s the worst red card decision he’s ever seen

Add to that Brighton who have lost 6 straight are only 2 points above us currently. It was a game where both sides had a half, Wood missed our chance and Iwobi scored theirs. I’ll start worrying if we lose another 4 on the bounce and all the teams below us start suddenly winning loads.

Even if they win both games in hand, we’d still be 4 points above them, and 5/6 points above the drop (depending on Everton’s games in hand as it would mean Leeds were 18th with 5 points less than us). so they’d then need a further 2 decent results to draw level or overtake us, which would put us on 31 games played (if you say we lose both the games Burnley pick up points), from that point they’d still need to pick up more points over 7 games than we do. This is a side on 3 wins who look fucking shite. Those sides below us have to play games against each other so they can’t all get those points. I’m not going to work it out but I’d say it would be fairly low chance of us going down at this point. We’re not suddenly going to lose every game, we lost away to Chelsea and lost a game that could have went either way tonight (both sides had a half imo), two weeks to recover and get some players back will do us good as we’ve been running on fumes since Brighton.

We need to lose basically every game to go down, unless you can see Burnley or Watford winning half their remaining games.

That’s a point as well that he was up against Godfrey. Godfrey trying to be a full back in the PL is like Gordon entering a beauty contest, credit for trying but howay man.

If he didn’t have to do anything with the football he’d be amazing. Unfortunately he has to and he’s simply not talented enough to play in the PL. The front three were fucking appalling tonight.

He consistently ignored persistent fouls, let about 2-3 elbows which should have produced cards go. I disagree about the red btw, it was a fucking disgraceful challenge, zero intention of playing the ball he lunged in recklessly with no control and was nearly a foot off the ground when he made contact - if ASM wasn’t jumping to ride the tackle it could have been a horrible injury. Thought it was an absolutely disgraceful performance by the ref. As I say though we were appalling as well.

I think our team are fucking paggered tbh. Everton are shite but they were clearly absolutely desperate for that and got really fortunate imo. Howe is at the point where he’s playing crap he doesn’t want to field like Krafth and Almiron.

Absolutely fucking shocking second half by us mind. That aside Pawson was appalling tonight. It wasn’t a corner and there were at least two fouls in the build up to their goal.

Why is he not booked? Isn’t this ref the same one that didn’t get us a pen against Man City? He might honestly need investigated took VAR to have him give a ref for a tackle that was a foot off the ground, and has give Everton players about 20 fouls each

What is he possibly complaining about? He was about a foot off the ground lunging in It was mental that it took VAR

That should honestly be his red card tbh, he’s done that exact same thing 3 times to go with his other fouls.