The Fish

If they go into Administration and are subsequently wound up, do you reckon there'd be an AFC Sunderland, or Sunderland City Football Club crop up? They've already halved their attendance by dropping into the 2nd tier, and would see a similar exodus in League 1. Should they start afresh surely they'll see huge numbers of fans sack it off entirely, losing them to Shields and maybe the younger kids to us?

They've still got a few big earners, don't they? According to Transfermarkt Jack Rodwell's contract doesn't run out until 30/06/2019. His reported weekly wage (£70k) is worth more than some League 1 club's transfer budget.

Any idea how a second relegation impacts the parachute payments?

Georgie boys version in the Times is better. Obvs

Trouble is, they'll point to their double relegation as proof that an earlier relegation wouldn't have benefited them at all. Getting relegated would have meant fewer jokers on big wages, fewer seasons spent in the bottom 4, and fewer weekends spent leaving the stadium early after another insipid display. But, as has been said, 9-1,6-in-a-row, FTM, Rafa Beneathus and all that.

West Brom 1/66 Stoke 4/6 Southampton 15/8 West Ham 9/4 Crystal Palace 5/2 Huddersfield 5/2 Swansea 4/1 Newcastle 14/1 Brighton 16/1 Bournemouth 33/1 Everton 100/1 Watford 100/1 Shows PpG needed for each team to get 40pts, over time. Omitted those that were already safe 12/02/2018 and so far only Burnley and Leicester have reached the promised land. It shows those who now need to win every game (WBA) and those that would need to win every other one (Stoke & Palace). We’re in amongst a group needing about a point a game (our season PpG is 1.07). This tail end of the season is when external factors become more influential like; goal difference, the quality of opposition they’re facing and what that opposition are aiming for. E.g. Bournemouth are on course for 40pts, needing only 0.88PpG, but they face one of the hardest run ins in terms of quality of opposition. That said, some of the better placed teams they face won’t be playing for anything (Burnley and Leicester e.g.). West Brom and Stoke obviously face teams higher in the league, but they also create fewer and permit more chances than their oppositions. Stoke in particular face an awful April; Arsenal (a), Spurs (H), West Ham (a), Burnley (h) and Liverpool (a). It’s only really Burnley and West Ham where you can see them getting points and even then you’d not call either 3pt bankers. I think it’ll definitely be WBA and Stoke going down. Hughes might drag some performances from Southampton’s talented squad that pull their heads above water, Hodgson might reshuffle his tactics to rediscover his earlier form and Palace have an easier run in than most. West Ham are in a horrible state and their off field problems will not help. I reckon West Ham will be playing at the Hawthorns and the Britannia in the 2018/19 Championship. On who I'd like to go down; obviously I’d like to see the back of Pardew and the Baggies are a bit of a nothing club anyway. Similarly Stoke have existed in the Premier League for a while, but their football has been poor on the whole and their fans fully buy into the myth about them being terrific… I’d love West Ham to be relegated partly because of their fans, partly because it’d be funny to see the exodus of players from the Olympic stadium and partly because I want to see how Gold and Sullivan try and spin it. I don't have any strong opinions on Southampton, Bournemouth, Huddersfield, Swansea so I don't care if they survive... Naturally I’d love Fat Sam’s team to drop, but Everton only need 1 win to get to 40pts (or the Allardyce Constant) so I can’t see it happening. Realistically I want WBA, Stoke and West Ham and I reckon I'll get my wish.

Found it myself, you jackanape.

Convoluted or comprehensive?

Posted this back in November. Where they stand now; Current - 26Pts Current - 0.788PpG Average Relegation - 46pts To get to 47pts they need - 1.615PpG Magic "Safety" number - 50pts To get there you need - 1.846PpG So they need about 21pts from 13 games. So 7 wins would do it...

What was the point tally for 4th bottom though?

Win the Euros tonight, buy the mackems, sell off the squad, knock down the ground and the training facilities to put up some student flats. It'd be a kindness. Then they can start up AFC Sunderland or whatever, with all their favourite bits of Sunderland AFC, but none of the bad. Just like Rangers have managed. And you'd still have £100m to spend.

Who are they?

To be honest, their idea of "kicking on" seems significantly different to ours. A season in the top flight without miraculously surviving by the skin of their teeth would be "kicking on" for them and you'd fancy Allardyce would have managed that race to mediocrity. Even on their meagre budget. Staggers me there hasn't been a mass protest against the owner. The sum of their discontent seems to be a few angry swears at whoever is current sap in the dugout and empty seats. There've been threads meekly suggesting something; a banner, or a march or whatever, and they've been met with an insistence that those protests wouldn't do anything and they instead need to get behind the team now more than ever. Some even saying they shouldn't stoop to our level. As if meekly turning up (or staying away) is somehow more respectable than an organised demonstration of displeasure.

Surely the big earners would rather move for new contracts at a different Championship club on less money than face at least 1 season playing on a bog in front of 5k at Southend and Fleetwood? Even if it's for less money than they're on now? At least it might give them an opportunity to get a better deal again in a years time?

They've got a shitty run of fixtures too. Away to relegation rivals Bolton, then the Tees Wear "derby", away to Millwall which is never easy, home to promotion chasing Villa... Ending the season with Wolves and Fulham who're the highest scoring teams in the division. And every team (even the relegation rivals) will view them as an opportunity to get all three points, home or away.

Not sure any of their players are worth £10m, and certainly won't be should they be relegated once more. NDong's loan to Watford apparently has an option to buy, but he's yet to feature for them at all and I'd be surprised if he commands £10m. Borini's fee is reported to be about £5m, Khazri's is about the same, I'd be shocked if Djilobodji could attracts bids of more than £5m. Kone's stock will have dropped as well. Say they did get £30m* would that be enough to; service their debt, cover running costs and build a team good enough to get promoted into the Championship at the first time of asking? *figure picked out of the clear blue

I was looking to see if the Stadium of light be the biggest stadium ever to be the permanent home of a League one side? It's comfortably the largest in the Championship and would be c20k larger than the largest currently hosting 3rd tier games. They're averaging gates of 27k in the Championship and you'd imagine they'd lose at least another c5k or so if they drop again. And given the loss of tv money, the last year of parachute payments, the gross wage bill and the debt they're in, the drop in gate receipts could have lasting impact on the club. The only future I see for them in the short term is a spartan period of austerity and "consolidation". Their external debt is sizeable, would the lenders take the stadium as payment? Would they see something akin to the turmoil that Coventry City have endured over the Ricoh Arena? I know we've got our problems, and our Premier League future is in no way guaranteed, but this is another year where I thank Christ we're not them. Even when we got relegated we had cause to be optimistic, they haven't had that. We had one of the most trophied managers around guiding us back to the Premier League at the first time of asking no muss, no fuss. One who was able to replace the mercenaries and wantaways with more than 10 new players for the first team and squad... Short apparently would have kept Moyes on had he not demanded enough money to overhaul the squad, then they got rejected by McInnes who also thought the club needed more money than was offered, and the same for O'Neill, then the uninspiring appointment of Grayson and little investment in the squad, then Coleman and fuck all spent again. We had a lovely spa getaway in the Championship, smashing teams about 6-0. They're getting smashed by teams like Cardiff and Ipswich... It'd be funny enough if it was any other "big club", but because it's affecting the fans who delighted in our relegation, who told us Benitez would leave, when he stayed that he couldn't cut it in the Championship, that he'd bought shit, that he'd bought the league, that Leeds/Reading/Huddersfield/Fulham would catch us, that winning it doesn't matter because it's a joke league anyway,... it's hilarious.

No. Good chat.

Surprised at just how poorly Darlow and Elliot fare in those charts. 'Keeper wasn't a position any of us really identified as a weakness, but it looks fairly clear it should have been. I mean, Benitez spotted it, but he's a top class manager and it's his job. Have our standards dropped so low that we're overrating two poor 'keepers? Or is the above analysis doing them a disservice?

Aye I’m basically banking on the 3 new players being the difference in tight games; Either Slimani and Kenedy providing goals or Dubravka preventing them. I’m not expecting Dubravka to play like he did on his debut in every game, but he shouldn’t need to. I’m expecting Kenedy to continue to impress and look dangerous. And yes, I’m expecting Slimani to hit the ground running, although that’s probably the least likely. To to be honest, it’s likely that it won’t need 40pts to survive, but I think it’s an achievable target.

Getting away from the fact I put some effort into the presentation of my thoughts, what’s your take on the substance of the post?

Venn diagram. Obvs

You lot are coming dangerously close to J69 territory here.

Emails to mates.

Need 4 wins from 11 to get to the magical 40pt mark. If you sack off the games against the "big clubs", it still leaves us with 7 games against sides in trouble to get the job done. And we're only behind Brighton in the mini league of the bottom-vs-bottom. I reckon it'll go something like this; Bournemouth a 3 31 Liverpool a 0 31 Southampton h 3 34 Spurs a 0 34 Huddersfield h 3 37 Leicester a 1 38 Arsenal h 0 38 Everton a 1 39 WBA h 3 43 Watford a 1 44 Chelsea h 0 44