The Fish

Someone asked the podcast where clubs in the relegation scrap would be with Benitez in charge and you've got to say they'd be top half. Certainly a team like Southampton, with the average standard of their players being higher than our lot. The way he's got players like Diame, Dummett, Yedlin playing individually and together as a unit is remarkable.

Cutting and running is fine, but he's cut and hasn't run. He could have invested enough to at least keep them up, and look to cut his losses this summer. As it stands it's costing him a fortune to keep it running, there's no money coming in from player sales, tv, or commercial, a League 1 club with huge external debt won't attract suitors. He won't save them now, but he could have saved them (or at least kept them in reaching distance of rescue) by spending in January. He didn't, and now they're entirely fucked.

And this season we've seen the biggest relegation scrum for ages. I'm confindent teams like Southampton will spend significant amounts of money to ensure they're not in the shit as they have been this season. I'm not wholly confident Ashley will be adverse to gambling that he can spend little and still keep Benitez. I also think the club needs to buy a striker, a number 10, a midfielder, a fullback or two. The first two in that list will surely cost us north of £35m alone. Throwing good money after bad is usually a bad idea, but failing to spend and seeing their club fall into the 3rd tier of football is a much, much badderer idea.

Didn't you say that should we sign Kenedy and Dubravka an investment of £30-£40m would be enough. That to me suggests you think this club is safe from relegation with the side we see now. +/- 1 striker or 2-3 players. I'd say we'd need a lot more than that next season. Anything we spend needs to be in line with the rest of the teams that stay up, and whatever the promoted clubs spend. It's been a fairly disappointing season for the majority of the league, even teams like Man Utd and Spurs will want to spend to improve on 17/18. What do you think teams like Southampton, Swansea, West Ham, Watford will be spending? £30m? or closer to £60m? Bournemouth spent £20m on a centre back last year, but if they don't spend again, they'll be one of the weakest sides in the top flight. If Villa come up, they'll spend. Wolves will spend. £30-£40m won't be near enough, gross or net, especially as we've no real saleable assets who'll pull in £30m on their own. None that Benitez would be ok with releasing as he was with Sissoko.

No, you're right, it's not the same. One is to improve and show ambition, the other is an attempt to prevent a calamitous relegation. One is to build an extension on your house, the other is to put a fire out. Which of those do you think is more likely to stir a man into action? Which is more stupid to ignore? Even Ashley spent money when it looked like we were going down under McClaren. That Short didn't is incredible.

I don't think we'll spend because having money hasn't loosened his purse strings in the past. We had plenty of dinero the summer we finished 5th. Plenty of money in January 2017. Plenty of money in January 2018.

Could. You. Imagine.

Whatever happens, they'll have at least a season of miserable away days watching terrible football at the likes of Fleetwood and Gillingham, in front of a handful of fans who're mumbling "6-in-a-row" chants with increasing despondency. If Benitez stays we'll rarely even give them the joy of watching us get thrashed by someone. As has been said before, I'd feel bad for the club, the employees and the fans, if they weren't unrepentantly dickish whenever we faced trouble.

I admit to being wrong about their spend in January and frankly it ties into Rayvin's confidence that Ashley will spend. I couldn't believe Short would be so stupid as to fail to invest when it was clear they were in trouble. This time round I'm just being cautious. They could be bought by someone who fancies a club with all the infrastructure to be a Premier League club at a knock down price, and they could be back in the top flight in 20/21. Not likely though. They could get down there and field a mixture of decent kids*, experienced heads* and a flash of quality* (for League 1) and storm the league. Likely that they'll be down in League one for at least a season, and if they get back up to the Championship I can't see them getting back into the Premier League for some time. The gap is only getting bigger and honestly, I think the wealth will spread from the Premier League to the top half of the Championship, meaning it's even harder for teams from League 1 to make much headway.

Only ways I can see them addressing their sizeable external debts is by flogging their stadium, or a takeover. How's saying "put the champagne back in the fridge until we see what they look like in August" anything but sensible? You goon. I mean, I could predict; administration, eviction and winding up orders, but that's a little premature.

To be honest, we'll not know their chances until after the dust has settled. Loads of their "stars" will not countenance League 1 football, some of their young lads may be moved on to get some transfer income, those that remain might be good enough to compete in League 1...

They've got at least one season in League 1, then at best 1 season in the Championship. But that's not exactly likely. It's more realistic to think they'll be down in the 2nd tier for a few of seasons before they get back up, if at all. Weird to think that realistically, you could be talking 5+ years without a derby. As long as we don't get relegated or meet them in the cups... Without the tv and commercial money, with attendances falling, no saleable assets of note, and huge wage bills to satisfy/pay off, it's not like they can spend their way back into contention. Read somewhere that they're still paying the wages of the lads who're away on loan.

7 pages now.

Because it’s 20 past 11 and I’m not sober and have work in 8 hours

Had hoped a brace from Mitrovic would be enough to send them down, just like I’d hoped a brace from Dummett would send Pardew down. Ah well, I’ll have to find another way to enjoy it. This time last season we were top with 84pts, 20 more wins than they’ve managed, our most recent coming against... you guessed it, Burton Albion

Won't there need to be caveats? The club could be sold, Benitez could be gone, etc.

Her offer was closer to a reasonable valuation of the club than Ashley's reported £400m. I've faith in Benitez, I've zero faith in Ashley. And just because his gambles are coming off at the minute, doesn't mean there's not a snake eyes round the corner.

This season. But this season is aberrant, imo. Three sides who would traditionally occupy the middle of the league are going to be relegated (as things stand). There's been underperformance across the board, Man City and Liverpool's attack aside, the league has been poor. Man Utd have been poor for much of the season and yet sit happily ensconced in 2nd. Man Utd, Spurs, Chelsea, Arsenal, Everton, Southampton, Stoke, West Brom, Crystal Palace... all will say they've had a disappointing season. When the club's strengthen, and they will all strengthen, simply hoping to repeat this season's performances in 18/19 will lead to calamity.

Just because a gamble's paid off, does not mean it wasn't a stupid bloody gamble. The lack of investment in last season's winter window was proof positive that the man is idiotic when it comes to football. Every man and his dog knew that the price of players was only going to go up and, at the time, we were in 2nd only 6pts clear of 3rd. Given we had the money, given play offs are a gamble in themselves, given the club was an easier sell then than it was in the previous summer, given Rafa, given everything... that's when we should have invested. Loan a young player from an elite club, with a view to buying if we went up. Buy a bit of quality from a struggling side to carry us over the finish line. Spending less than he promised is one thing, to be outspent by Brighton and Huddersfield is ridiculous. Don't forget about the nonsense surrounding the failed takeover too. If Benitez walks, do does a significant chunk of the club's resale value. If we're not a Premier League club, we're worth far less. He could have banked a profit on the club and walked off into the sunset, never needing to worry about the mean Geordies ever again.

What do we need? Well I'd say a Right back, a left back, more quality in the centre of the park, a number 10 and a striker or 2. Plus the youth teams need heavy investment. Say we sign those 2 permanently, and a striker for £30m. That's £55m. Can you see Ashley investing the £50m needed to strengthen the rest of what is a decidedly average squad. For me, it's only if it's from players sales (though quite how we'd raise that kind of cash from this squad is a mystery). He's going to put the tv money into the bank, either pay himself some of the money we owe him, or "into the running of the club". He's not going to dip into his pocket. The biggest issue is if Benitez thinks he's being taken for a mug. If he does, he'll walk, and there's few managers who could get the same tune out of this lot, and fewer still who'd want to manage Mike Ashley's Newcastle United.

I think he's aware. I just think he's arrogant enough to gamble that whomever he gets in will do enough, on the limited budget he's willing to release, to survive in the Premier League. Every chance he's had to make a sensible decision he's not taken it. Appoint a manager who's willing to operate under a Director of Football model, appoint competent (if more expensive) directors who actually know about football. Don't appoint a lunatic whose previous position was 4 years ago with Nottingham Forest. Stick with the team whose spirit and togetherness was vital in promotion from the 2nd flight. Sanction investment into a 5th placed squad, bin off a manager who was only taking us in one direction, appoint an actual manager to steer us to safety instead of the garbage monster Carver. Don't antagonise the fanbase. Don't rebrand a famous old stadium. Don't make promises you've no intention of keeping. Don't antagonise an elite coach who is steering the club back to the top flight. Sell revenue space inside the ground for actual income, instead of hawking your tat-store. Don't get in bed with a payday loan company. He might be great at taking a distressed brand and running it into the ground for a tidy profit, but he's incompetent at running a football club.

Because he can run the club at a larger profit, get his tat-store on the tv and doesn't give a monkeys about competing. If Benitez does get fed up, we'll be back to the poundshop for managers, which, like you say, will mean greater expense if we're to stay in the top flight. Keeping Benitez sweet might be costly, but he can turn a poor side average and and average side good. The majority of managerial candidates out there can't claim the same.

Is it in line though? plenty of money from player sales and losing a few big earners from the wages, whatever pittance we got from promotion and Championship tv money, the first tranche of Premier League tv money, and so on. I think we've spent naff all and significantly less than Ashley promised to Benitez. Even if it's just £15m, that's a £20m striker instead of Joselu.

But even with the addition of the 3 loan players, you'd have to be worried that it'll be spun as investment in the 18/19 squad, when really it's money that should have been spent in the 17/18 season. It was stupid to fail to invest when we finished 5th, it was stupid to hold off from sacking McClaren until it was too late, it was stupid to fail to invest in the January window when it was obvious the summer would see an inflated market. That something is stupid doesn't seem a big enough deterrent for Ashley and Co.

It was there that I knew that I belonged. To me, it meant being somebody in the neighborhood that was full of nobodies. They weren’t like anybody else. I mean, they did whatever they wanted.