The Fish

That League One is shit. Sunderland are shit too, but I've no idea how they'll do so to say they're likely to get back up is premature.

You saw how poor the likes of Burton and Rotherham were when we played them though, surely? The bulk of League One teams are as far from Derby as the bulk of Championship sides are from Everton. (They're probably a bad example because they're doing so poorly this year, but you get the jist, right?)

Will they? There weren't many who thought they'd get relegated this season (myself included). They'll be going down with Burton who've experience in that league, plus 1 of Bolton, Birmingham, Reading (and maybe Hull). They might shift Rodwell and Cattermole, but who's left? They could be down there with a club like Blackburn or Wigan... so it's not like they're nailed on favourites.The standard of players they now have is League 1 level, but not even good League 1 level. They're bereft of confidence, with a tradition of failure ingrained in the club. They've won fewer games than anyone else in the country. When the exodus occurs they're not going to be flush with cash to spend on talent, unless Short funds it. The money that they'll get from parachute payments and player sales won't even clear their external debt. Especially given the crap they've got on the playing staff. An ageing squad of overpaid turd. They need an overhaul but haven't the money to do that. I've been guilty of overestimating them, I won't be doing it again.

Aye, just saw that. Can't imagine that will fatten the crowd out much, mind.

In total? Surely Khazri, Lens, Borini and Djilosjbsololjbsvjbssi will get them £10m between them at least? Transfermarkt seems to think Borini and Lens will be joining their loan clubs permanently next season for £9.6m

Sorry, that was unclear on my part. I meant that they could, in the future, sell players for large profits. Young lads coming through and impressing as Middlesbrough do frequently. Players whom Premier League clubs don't want to gamble on, but go on to prove themselves and draw admiring glances. Leeds bought Chris Wood for £3m(?) and sold him to Burnley for £15m! Has there been many examples of League 1 players attracting that kind of money? Being in the 3rd tier of English football significantly reduces their value and their earning potential. It's foolish to risk relegation for the want of £10-20m. And Ellis Short isn't short of a bob or two, he's still a billionaire. He'd earn £30m in interest within a year if it sat in a Tesco Bank savings account.

I think they blithely dismissed the likelihood of relegation when they spent £4m in the window of January 2017, and arrogantly thought they'd be good enough to survive the Championship after selling £30m worth of talent and replacing it with £1.5m worth of toss. I think they again, overestimated their chances of survival when they spent nothing in January 2018. He may be a good businessman, but he's a bad football owner. This is a business that rewards investment, and punishes those who don't. Also, a £180m indebted Championship club is much more attractive than a £150m indebted League 1 club. The latter has little hope of recouping that debt without significant investment from a new owner, the former could cut costs, sell players for large profits and stabilise without risking relegation (with the right people making the right choices).

As ewerk says it needn't have been £30m, but it could have been more than the square root of fuck all that they did spend. If he is wanting to unload them, it makes no sense to me to let them fall into League 1. It's like if you're trying to sell a house that' been costing you a fortune to maintain. You're not going to rewire it and convert the attic, but you'll give a lick of paint and fix the broken window to make it seem more attractive, even if it does cost you another sum of money on top of the fortune you've spent so far. If administration is likely, surely there are ways to accelerate that process? Get out now, why keep spending money on wages and upkeep if he could wash his hands of the whole sorry mess? If selling the club is his focus, he's just knocked millions off their value by allowing them to be relegated to the 3rd tier (of course if administration follows, they'll be worth even less).

Well it's a further season away from the Premier League trough, it's reduced commercial revenue, it's reduced attendances, it's reduced associated match day revenue, it's reduced revenue from player sales. Had he spent the £30m in January they may not only have survived, but finished mid table, then they're in a far far better position to try and get promoted while still supported by parachute payments and the fatter revenue streams in the Championship. They'd also be a much more attractive club to potential suitors. I'd argue failing to spend £30m has cost him much more than that.

That makes more sense to me than Short not investing.

That's going to be an empty ground, isn't it? Spurs are safely ensconced in 4th, 8 points clear of Chelsea, a Wednesday night game, on tv, against a side that is pretty much safe who they have no particular rivalry with. Odd choice by Sky.

Someone asked the podcast where clubs in the relegation scrap would be with Benitez in charge and you've got to say they'd be top half. Certainly a team like Southampton, with the average standard of their players being higher than our lot. The way he's got players like Diame, Dummett, Yedlin playing individually and together as a unit is remarkable.

Cutting and running is fine, but he's cut and hasn't run. He could have invested enough to at least keep them up, and look to cut his losses this summer. As it stands it's costing him a fortune to keep it running, there's no money coming in from player sales, tv, or commercial, a League 1 club with huge external debt won't attract suitors. He won't save them now, but he could have saved them (or at least kept them in reaching distance of rescue) by spending in January. He didn't, and now they're entirely fucked.

And this season we've seen the biggest relegation scrum for ages. I'm confindent teams like Southampton will spend significant amounts of money to ensure they're not in the shit as they have been this season. I'm not wholly confident Ashley will be adverse to gambling that he can spend little and still keep Benitez. I also think the club needs to buy a striker, a number 10, a midfielder, a fullback or two. The first two in that list will surely cost us north of £35m alone. Throwing good money after bad is usually a bad idea, but failing to spend and seeing their club fall into the 3rd tier of football is a much, much badderer idea.

Didn't you say that should we sign Kenedy and Dubravka an investment of £30-£40m would be enough. That to me suggests you think this club is safe from relegation with the side we see now. +/- 1 striker or 2-3 players. I'd say we'd need a lot more than that next season. Anything we spend needs to be in line with the rest of the teams that stay up, and whatever the promoted clubs spend. It's been a fairly disappointing season for the majority of the league, even teams like Man Utd and Spurs will want to spend to improve on 17/18. What do you think teams like Southampton, Swansea, West Ham, Watford will be spending? £30m? or closer to £60m? Bournemouth spent £20m on a centre back last year, but if they don't spend again, they'll be one of the weakest sides in the top flight. If Villa come up, they'll spend. Wolves will spend. £30-£40m won't be near enough, gross or net, especially as we've no real saleable assets who'll pull in £30m on their own. None that Benitez would be ok with releasing as he was with Sissoko.

No, you're right, it's not the same. One is to improve and show ambition, the other is an attempt to prevent a calamitous relegation. One is to build an extension on your house, the other is to put a fire out. Which of those do you think is more likely to stir a man into action? Which is more stupid to ignore? Even Ashley spent money when it looked like we were going down under McClaren. That Short didn't is incredible.

I don't think we'll spend because having money hasn't loosened his purse strings in the past. We had plenty of dinero the summer we finished 5th. Plenty of money in January 2017. Plenty of money in January 2018.

Could. You. Imagine.

Whatever happens, they'll have at least a season of miserable away days watching terrible football at the likes of Fleetwood and Gillingham, in front of a handful of fans who're mumbling "6-in-a-row" chants with increasing despondency. If Benitez stays we'll rarely even give them the joy of watching us get thrashed by someone. As has been said before, I'd feel bad for the club, the employees and the fans, if they weren't unrepentantly dickish whenever we faced trouble.

I admit to being wrong about their spend in January and frankly it ties into Rayvin's confidence that Ashley will spend. I couldn't believe Short would be so stupid as to fail to invest when it was clear they were in trouble. This time round I'm just being cautious. They could be bought by someone who fancies a club with all the infrastructure to be a Premier League club at a knock down price, and they could be back in the top flight in 20/21. Not likely though. They could get down there and field a mixture of decent kids*, experienced heads* and a flash of quality* (for League 1) and storm the league. Likely that they'll be down in League one for at least a season, and if they get back up to the Championship I can't see them getting back into the Premier League for some time. The gap is only getting bigger and honestly, I think the wealth will spread from the Premier League to the top half of the Championship, meaning it's even harder for teams from League 1 to make much headway.

Only ways I can see them addressing their sizeable external debts is by flogging their stadium, or a takeover. How's saying "put the champagne back in the fridge until we see what they look like in August" anything but sensible? You goon. I mean, I could predict; administration, eviction and winding up orders, but that's a little premature.

To be honest, we'll not know their chances until after the dust has settled. Loads of their "stars" will not countenance League 1 football, some of their young lads may be moved on to get some transfer income, those that remain might be good enough to compete in League 1...

They've got at least one season in League 1, then at best 1 season in the Championship. But that's not exactly likely. It's more realistic to think they'll be down in the 2nd tier for a few of seasons before they get back up, if at all. Weird to think that realistically, you could be talking 5+ years without a derby. As long as we don't get relegated or meet them in the cups... Without the tv and commercial money, with attendances falling, no saleable assets of note, and huge wage bills to satisfy/pay off, it's not like they can spend their way back into contention. Read somewhere that they're still paying the wages of the lads who're away on loan.

7 pages now.