The Fish

Jermain Defoe isn't it? Oh....

I think they've lurched from one style to another, they've mismanaged their finances, and haven't perhaps reacted the right way to challenges from other PL teams. However, if they keep Richarlison, DCL, and take advantage of the consistent flow of talent from their academy and so on. Get the right manager in and they could easily finish between 9th and 12th. An area that we will surely be targeting next season? Lampard has only won 3 league games, losing the other 7. In that time they've scored 9, conceding 17. They've lost all their away games in the league and shipped an average of 3 goals in each. I don't think his job is half as safe as some of you do.

When we were criticising Ashley for his neglect of the academy, we were told that we were still producing talent at a decent rate and shouldn't complain. Now that he's gone they've stuck the jalopy in reverse.

He also says we've scored something like 15 goals since Watford, 'Only 9 of them from open play'. Now, my maths might not be great but 9/15 is a pretty significant majority. And for a team plugging away at the tail end of the Premier League, that's not bad at all.

You think? I reckon they'll bin Lampard off at the end of the season. I dunno, I think if they find a good manager, they'll be much better than this season. They've enough quality and a reliable academy.

I bet you're thinking about it though. Aren't you. You're imagining a sweaty hand on top of your head firmly pushing you insistently towards that wrinkled mole rat.

Scans with how every other kid was ruining their nose in their 20s. YOU MASSIVE FUCKING NEEERRRRRDDD!!

That's fair. I guess the way I look at it is this; Everton out of the league strengthens us more comparatively than £10m in the bank. PLUS Everton fans need a season or two in the 2nd tier to realign their expectations.

Hard to talk with his cock in your mouth.

Comedy Dave doesn't seem so bad after all, now does he?

Well, why don't you just marry him if you love him so much?

Aye that throws the cat among the pigeons and no mistake. Not least because Watford and Burnley lost games that, on paper, looked like decent opportunities to pick up at least a point. However, Burnley are capable of grinding out at least a draw from their final 8 games. I think Everton will lose their next 4. If they're still within a couple of points of eachother come the final 3 games, I think it'll be Burnley that survive. I think the away fans will be begging Dubravka to throw one in the net if a Burnley win means Everton go down. Not to get too conspiratorial, but it makes sense for every midtable side to want Everton to go down. With the right manager that club could be comfortably ensconced in the middle of the league. With them out of the picture for a season at least it means an easier season for Southampton, Villa et al.

The problem with all projections, as you undoubtedly know, is that it can only use past performance and 'best guess' as a guide for what is to come. It doesn't necessarily take into account the yearly phenomenon of the form of teams with nowt to play for, suddenly becoming unpredictable. Or the performance uptick we've seen so often in Burnley towards the end of the season. All that is saying is that if things stay largely the same, the have a 1 in 3 chance of going down. But I think things won't stay largely the same. I thnk Burnley will claw their way out of it. Or, more accurately, I think Frank will steer Everton back into it.

He was on a Match of the Day Top 10 thingy and said he was nursing an injury, went off for surgery/treatment after the match. He admits he was god awful and had we been winning he'd have gone off sooner.

Aye, that reminds me of that stat Sky and BT use which makes no sense. "It's been 83 years since Brentford last won a league game at Stamford Bridge" Well, they last played a league game there in 1947 so what question does that stat answer?

I was in the East Stand for this one. Even the miserable old coots in there were tumbling over eachother and ending up three rows down.

The issue with that comes with when the shot is taken. Defender's leading foot and attackers trailing foot are slightly overlapping, therefore no daylight. I think Gemmil is right, outside the box, the lines have to be thick and drawn from feet. Inside the box, it's any body part you can legally score from.

I keep going back to their 6inarow shit. Didn't we win something like 5 in a row, and it barely registered? Because, it wasn't a season defining achievement. For them it makes up for everything else going on at their club. Finished 17th? doesn't matter we beat the Mags 6 in a row. Got relegated? doesn't matter we beat the Mags 6 in a row. Got relegated again? doesn't matter we beat the Mags 6 in a row. Choked at the play offs? doesn't matter we beat the Mags 6 in a row. Lowest finish in the club's history? doesn't matter we beat the Mags 6 in a row. Newcastle been taken over to become the richest club on the planet? doesn't matter we beat the Mags 6 in a row. It's fucking weird.

It should be, whatever his Royal Highness decides.

Honestly think unless there's significant changes to the law the VAR lines should be measured from legs/feet. The essence of the law is to prevent attackers having an unfair advantage over the defenders, right? I don't see how the current iteration of VAR and the offside law answers that issue.

ARS 0 AST 0 BRE 3 BRI 3 BUR 0 CHE 3 CRY 0 EVE 3 LEE 3 LEI 3 LIV 1 MCI 1 MUN 0 NEW 3 NOR 3 SOU 0 TOT 3 WAT 0 WHU 0 WOL 0 I'm not too disheartened with that, especially as I haven't been maintaining the spreadsheet throughout the season. As such I've not been able to include recent form. Still, I need to correct the weighting as there are some fixtures where one team was projected to win and the other was projected to draw, and that shouldn't happen. England Football Results Betting Odds | Premiership Results & Betting Odds (football-data.co.uk) is handy for this kind of thing.

It’s not a prediction thing, it’s a projection thing. Given what’s happened, what’s more likely to happen. Can’t account for Man Utd deciding to fuck off playing football for the day. Next season I need to find a better weighting system. Everton beating Man Utd was against all form, bookies were agreeing with me, so shut it CT

So, I didn't have much on today and made something a bit(a lot) rough and ready; These are the fixtures for each team from 30 onwards. I looked at teach teams home and away form, while taking into account their overall quality (e.g. Leicester are very good at home, but not great on the road, but they're still a midtable outfit.). I gave a value to each and weighted it. So, the higher the number, the easier the fixture. What's the difference between the two sides? From that I created a rough and ready formula to predict the most likely outcome with a little randomness thrown in because... football. Gives this as a final table. Fwiw, I think it's underestimating a lot of teams, but fuck it, it's rough and ready

It'll be tight. Wolves are good on the road, and have a good defence. We are not great at unlocking good defences, but we're improving our form at home.